PDF Attached
Private
exporters sales of 135,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Poland during the 2022/2023 marketing year.
Not
much change to the fundamentals other than another increase in global export demand. Corn closed higher on late fund buying. EIA ethanol figures were supportive for corn. US wheat was lower but losses were limited from late buying. MN closed higher, Chicago
lower and KC lower. The soybean complex ended lower, in part to a reversal in SBO from sharply lower WTI crude oil and higher USD. The US weather outlook is largely unchanged.
The far northwestern Corn Belt may see rain this weekend and ECB pockets of rain will fall over the next few days.
World
Weather Inc.
WEATHER
TO WATCH AROUND THE WORLD
- Northwestern
U.S. Corn and Soybean Belt continues to dry out with short to very short top and subsoil moisture - Rain
is needed and the longer the region stays dry the more serious the potential impact on yields might become - GFS
and ECMWF models differ over rainfall in the western Corn and Soybean Belt, including the northwest, for this weekend into next week
- GFS
model suggests weekend rainfall of 0.20 to 0.75 inch and a few amounts to 1.00 inch - ECMWF
model suggests 0.75 to more than 2.00 inch of rain - If
the ECMWF is correct many of the stressed crops in the northwestern Corn and Soybean Belt will get sufficient relief to turn around crop conditions – at least for a little while and that might help slow potential yield declines - If
the GFS model is correct the amount of improvement to crop and field conditions will not be great and worry over long term production will be quick to resume - World
Weather, Inc. expects some rain in the western Corn Belt and some partial relief from this week’s heat and dryness will result, but the amount of rain will not be great enough to fix the long term outlook which may include additional stress for westernmost
crops - U.S.
high pressure ridge is weak and moves around enough during the next two weeks to prevent serious drying and extreme weather from evolving in any particular area for very long - The
mix should prove to be good for production, although greater rain will still be needed in the west - Central
and eastern U.S. Midwest crop conditions are still rated quite favorably in the majority of the region and some of the high yields there may help counter the lower yields possible in the far western Corn Belt - West
and northern Texas rain potentials are increasing for early to mid-week next week
- The
precipitation would likely come a little late for cotton, sorghum and corn after months of hot, dry, weather - Rain
potentials are not very great and significant follow up moisture will be needed to seriously change the situation and not much of that is expected - Crops
in the Carolinas are becoming too dry again with crop moisture stress expanding - Meaningful
relief is unlikely until the second week of the outlook - U.S.
Pacific Northwest will see less oppressive heat for a while, but rainfall will be minimal - Hotter
conditions may return near mid-month - Southwestern
Canada’s Prairies and the northern U.S. Plains are drying out and stressing late season crops - Production
cuts are possible for late season canola, corn, soybeans and flax as well as some sunseed - Northern
parts of Canada’s Prairies received some welcome rain Tuesday soil conditions are rated well from northern and central Alberta to northern Saskatchewan and in many areas across Manitoba.
- Ontario
and Quebec crop conditions remain favorably rated with a good mix of weather expected over the next couple of weeks - No
tropical cyclones or potential for tropical cyclones are present in the Atlantic Ocean Basin; including the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean Sea for the next five days - Tropical
Storm Frank dissipated in the eastern Pacific Ocean and Tropical Depression Georgette is expected to do the same in the next few days - A
new disturbance is forming off the west coast of Central America and it has potential to become a tropical cyclone later this week - No
tropical cyclones were present in the western Pacific or Indian Oceans today, but a disturbance was noted near the southern coast of China that may briefly evolve into a tropical cyclone before moving inland to eastern Guangdong or southern Fujian late this
week and into the weekend - Eastern
Ukraine and neighboring areas of Russia will receive rain over the next several days bolstering topsoil moisture for improved summer crop development - Net
drying is expected in Russia’s New Lands where temperatures may also be a little warmer biased, but crop conditions should remain favorably rated
- A
boost in rainfall is still needed in eastern parts of Russia’s Southern Region, western Kazakhstan and the lower Volga River Basin, although the situation is not critical - Europe
weather will continue drier than usual through the next week to ten days, despite a weak cool front and some showers expected Thursday into Friday from France to Poland - Some
brief showers will also occur in southeastern Europe’s dry region next week, but the precipitation will be light and sporadic - A
general boost in rainfall is needed in both western and southeastern Europe, but the precipitation noted above will fail to bring a serious change to any location and crop moisture stress will continue - Some
increase in precipitation may occur in western Europe near mid-month - Europe
temperatures will be quite warm relative to normal over the coming week in central and southern crop areas with highs in the 90s and a few extremes over 100 Fahrenheit expected
- Temperatures
next week will be warmer than usual in Western Europe and in particular from Spain through France to Germany and the U.K. while more seasonably warm to the east - The
bottom line for Europe remains stressful for most unirrigated crops from France and the U.K. into Germany, as well as the Iberian Peninsula and the Balkan Countries. Dryness has been most persistent and threatening to production from Hungary into the lower
Danube River Basin and in parts of France and relief in the next couple of weeks is unlikely to be significant enough to make a difference to production potentials.
- Argentina’s
drought stricken western wheat and barley areas will have a new chance for rain late this weekend and into early next week - Early
indications suggest 0.10 to 0.60 inch of moisture will result with locally more, but confidence is low for now - Southern
Brazil weather will continue favorably moist for winter crops - Brazil’s
Safrinha cotton harvest is advancing well due to dry and warm weather - Brazil’s
coffee, citrus and sugarcane areas continue mostly dry, but the harvest season has been good because of limited precipitation - A
few showers will occur Sunday into Tuesday, but resulting rainfall should be light and most of it will occur in Parana, Sao Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul - There
is no threat of frost or freezes in the next ten days - Eastern
China’s weather in the next ten days will be drier than usual in the interior southeast and favorably to excessively wet from the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain into northeastern China - Xinjiang,
China will see a good mix of weather over the next two weeks maintaining favorable crop development and normal yield potentials
- India’s
monsoonal rainfall is expected to continue widespread across the nation during the next two weeks with all areas impacted and most getting sufficient rain to bolster soil moisture and/or induce flooding - Some
central areas may become too wet, but the precipitation will occur with sufficient breaks in this coming week to prevent serious flooding from occurring - Worry
over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand dryness will continue even though timely rain is expected - These
three states and immediate neighboring areas received well below normal precipitation earlier this summer and have moisture deficits still lingering - Greater
rain is needed in these areas but may be slow in coming. - Next
week’s monsoon low that moves from the Bay of Bengal to Gujarat will produce flooding rain from Odisha into Maharashtra and southern Madhya Pradesh - Nationwide
rainfall is still expected to be above normal through mid-August and additional relief should occur to the dry areas of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, but the amounts will need to be closely monitored. Cotton, groundnut and soybean areas of northwestern India should
experience mostly good weather for crop improvements after flooding rain earlier this month - Sumatra,
Indonesia rainfall continues a little too erratic and greater moisture is still needed in some areas, despite a little rain earlier this week - Greater
rain is expected to slowly evolve over the next two weeks - All
other Southeast Asian nations will experience an abundance of rainfall during the next few weeks resulting in some flooding in the Philippines and the Maritime provinces - Australia
weather in the coming ten days will be favorable for most winter crops - A
good mix of rain and sunshine is expected that will favor well established crops prior to spring growth - South
Korea rice areas are still dealing with drought, despite some rain that fell recently.
- Some
additional rain is expected over the next couple of weeks - East-central
Africa rainfall is increasing and will be greatest in central and western Ethiopia, but Uganda and Kenya will get some much-needed improved rainfall - Tanzania
is normally dry at this time of year and it should be that way for the next few of weeks - West-central
Africa rainfall has been and will continue sufficient to support coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and cotton development normally - Some
greater rain would still be welcome in the drier areas of Ivory Coast and Ghana
- Seasonal
rains are shifting northward leading to some drying in southern areas throughout west-central Africa - Cotton
areas are expecting frequent rainfall in the next couple of weeks - South
Africa’s crop moisture situation is favorable for winter crop establishment, although some additional rain might be welcome - Restricted
rainfall is expected for a while, but the crop is rated better than usual - Central
America rainfall will continue to be abundant to excessive and drying is needed - Mexico
rain will be most abundant in the west and southern parts of the nation - Rain
in the Greater Antilles will occur periodically, but no excessive amounts are likely - Today’s
Southern Oscillation Index was +8.90 and it will move higher over the next week - New
Zealand weather is expected to be well mixed over the next two weeks - Temperatures
will be seasonable with a slight cooler bias
Source:
World Weather INC
Bloomberg
Ag Calendar
Wednesday,
Aug. 3:
- EIA
weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am - New
Zealand Commodity Price
Thursday,
Aug. 4:
- USDA
weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am - EARNINGS:
Corteva
Friday,
Aug. 5:
- FAO
World Food Price Index - ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm - FranceAgriMer
weekly update on crop conditions - Malaysia’s
Aug. 1-5 palm oil export data
Source:
Bloomberg and FI
Several
trade groups are updating US yield estimates.
-STONEX
SAYS ESTIMATES U.S. 2022 CORN PRODUCTION AT 14.417 BILLION BUSHELS, YIELD OF
176.0
BU/ACRE
-STONEX
SAYS ESTIMATES U.S. 2022 SOYBEAN PRODUCTION AT 4.490 BILLION BUSHELS, YIELD OF 51.3 BU/ACRE (Reuters)
Soybean
and Corn Advisory
2022
U.S. Corn Yield Lowered 1.0 bu/ac to 174.0 bu/ac
2022
U.S. Soybean Yield Lowered 0.5 bu/ac to 50.5 bu/ac
Barchart
is at 51.4 & 177.8
FI
is at 49.9 & 177.6
Macros
US
DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 29-Jul: +4.467M (est -1.500M; prev -4.523M)
–
Distillate: -2.400M (est +1.000M; prev -0.784M)
–
Cushing: +926K (prev +751K)
–
Gasoline: +163K (est -1.500M; prev -3.304M)
–
Refinery Utilization: -1.2% (est 0.3%; prev 1.5%)
EIA:
US Crude Stocks In SPR Fell In Latest Week To Lowest Since May 1985
U.S.
Crude Oil Futures Settle At $90.66/BBL, Down $3.76, 3.98 PCT
OPEC+
Meeting Ends, Approves Output Increase Decision Of 100,000 Bpd – RTRS Source
OPEC+
To Hold Next Meeting Sept 5 – RTRS Source
US
S&P Global Services PMI Jul F: 47.3 (est 47.0; prev 47.0)
–
Composite PMI: 47.7 (prev 47.5)
US
ISM Services Index Jul: 56.7 (est 53.5; prev 55.3)
US
Factory Orders (M/M) Jun: 2.0% (est 1.2%; prev R 1.8%)
–
Factory Orders Ex-Transportation (M/M): 1.4% (prev R 1.8%)
US
Durable Goods Orders (M/M) Jun F: 2.0% (est 1.9%; prev 1.9%)
–
Durables Ex-Transp: 0.4% (est 0.3%; prev 0.3%)
–
Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex-Air: 0.7% (prev 0.5%)
–
Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex-Air: 0.7% (prev 0.7%)
105
Counterparties Take $2.182 Tln At Fed Reverse Repo Op (prev $2.156 Tln, 105 Bids)