FI Evening Grain Comments 09/12/22

PDF Attached

 

USDA
caught many off guard. But crop conditions were off as well.  Look for a choppy Tuesday trade. While we are bullish corn and soy, don’t discount profit taking.

 

US
crop conditions are down one point, but we think its late for the season. 

 

US
WASDE Corn End Stocks New Sep: 1219M (est 1199M; prev 1388M) 

–
Soybean End Stocks New: 200M (est 245M; prev 245M) 

–
Wheat End Stocks New: 610M (est 610M; prev 610M)

–
Cotton End Stocks New: 2.70M (est 1.80M; prev 1.80M)

Global
WASDE Corn End Stocks New Sep: 305M (est 302M; prev 307M)

–
Soybean End Stocks New: 99M (est 102M; prev 101M)

–
Wheat End Stocks New: 269M (est 269M; prev 267M)

–
Cotton End Stocks New: 85M (est 83M; prev 83M)

 

Weather

 

World
Weather, INC.

WEATHER
EVENTS AND FEATURES TO WATCH

• Not
  much changed overnight
• No
  tropical cyclones were present in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico, although a couple of tropical waves were being monitored in the Atlantic Ocean for possible development.
  
• Both
  waves were only given a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next few days and both will move west northwesterly over open water in the Atlantic Ocean.
  
• One
  tropical wave was mid-way between Africa and the Windward Islands while the other was near the Africa coast.
• Hurricane
  Kay dissipated off the southwest coast of North America during the weekend, but showers and thunderstorms from the event are still occurring today in a part of the southern Great Basin and a part of southern and central California
• Weekend
  rain in southern California and Arizona was rarely more than 0.53 inch, although several areas reported up to 1.22 inches.
  
• Typhoon
  Muifa was still northeast of Taiwan this morning and was expected to move into eastern coastal areas of China later this week
• The
  storm will produce heavy rainfall in the range of 6.00 to 15.00 inches along the coast from northeastern Zhejiang through Jiangsu and eastern Shandong this week
  
• Flooding
  is expected and some damage to personal property is expected
• The
  storm will also produce some windy conditions
• There
  is some potential for port loading and shipping delays from the Shanghai area for a couple of days during mid-week this week
• The
  storm should weaken as it reaches land and may come inland as a strong tropical storm
• China
  weather during the weekend limited rain to the far southwest and across a part of the central Yellow River Basin
  
• Parts
  of northeastern Yunnan received excessive rainfall varying from 2.50 to more than 10.00 inches
  
• Some
  flooding resulted
• Rain
  totals elsewhere varied from 0.80 to more than 3.00 inches in the remainder of Yunnan into a part of western Guangxi and northward to southern Sichuan while amounts of 0.39 to 1.50 inches in Shaanxi and Shanxi as well as northwestern Henan.
• Net
  drying occurred elsewhere
• Drought
  continues in China’s central Yangtze River Basin where more damage continues to unirrigated rice and other crops
• Recent
  drying in North China Plain and northeastern China has been ideal in speeding along summer crop maturation and supporting some early season harvesting
• Central
  and eastern Heilongjiang, southeastern Jilin and southeastern Liaoning were still rated too wet on Friday, but should have dried down during the weekend
• Moisture
  from Typhoon Muifa could re-saturate the ground with moisture again possibly leading to some flooding and fieldwork delay
• China’s
  weather will change little over the next ten days; however, Typhoon Muifa will move along the central China coast during mid- to late week this week producing some very heavy rain and strong wind speeds from northeastern  Zhejiang to eastern Shandong
• Most
  interior areas of eastern China and a large part of the northeastern provinces will continue to dry out over this forecast period.
  
• Drought
  conditions will prevail in the heart of the Yangtze River Basin
• Beneficial
  drying will continue in portions of the Northeast Provinces as well as western parts of the North China Plain
• China’s
  weather bottom line will be good for the start of winter wheat planting in the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain and for the maturation and early harvest of summer crops in interior parts of the northeast. Flooding rain could impact a part of the central
  east coast as Typhoon Muifa impacts those areas later this week.  Not much crop damage is expected because of the tropical cyclone, but some port closures are possible in the Shanghai area briefly during mid-week.
  
• Xinjiang,
  China weather is expected to be mild to warm with rain mostly impacting the far northeast periodically
• This
  pattern will be very good for cotton and corn maturation as well as early harvesting in most areas, but there will be some disruption due to the showers in the far northeast
  
• India
  weekend precipitation was greatest in Gujarat and from parts of Maharashtra and southern most Chhattisgarh into southern Odisha, Telangana and Karnataka where rainfall of 0.75 to 3.00 inches common with local totals to 5.00 inches
• Net
  drying occurred in central and northern parts of India and neighboring areas of Pakistan supporting faster crop maturation and early harvest progress
• Temperatures
  turned hot again in the northwestern parts of India and Pakistan where seasonal drying has resumed
• Extreme
  highs reached 110 in southwestern Pakistan and 106 in southeastern Pakistan as well as northern Rajasthan
• India
  will continue plenty wet across the central and eastern parts of the nation during the next ten days
• Some
  Local flooding is possible especially in parts of Gujarat, northern Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh as well as areas from northern Chhattisgarh to Bangladesh, West Bengal and northeastern Odisha
  
• Net
  drying will occur in the far northern and southernmost parts of the nation, despite some light showers
• Temperatures
  will continue quite warm to hot in northwestern India and Pakistan
• Pakistan
  has benefited from drier weather recently and it should remain mostly dry for the next ten days along with neighboring areas of far northwestern India
• Improved
  cotton, rice and sugarcane conditions are expected, but production losses in Sindh because of late August flooding will not be reversible in some areas
• Pakistan
  continues to dry down along with northwestern India, but damage from last month’s flooding continues to be assessed and the impact was huge in some areas
• Southwestern
  Russia and immediate neighboring areas experienced more frost and freezes during the weekend ending the growing season for some areas
• Most
  of the freezes failed to seriously harm unharvested crops
• Similar
  conditions occurred in the eastern New Lands
• Rain
  fell in central and western Ukraine, Belarus and far southwestern Russia during the weekend with some amounts of 0.50 to 2.25 inches with a few amounts to 2.83 inches in Belarus and 3.38 inches in south-central Ukraine
• Limited
  rainfall occurred farther to the east, although showers were noted sporadically in the Russia New Lands
  
• CIS
  weather over the next ten days will spread rain from western Russia, Belarus and Ukraine into the remainder of Russia
• Some
  rain totals will vary from 1.00 to 3.00 inches in Russia’s Southern Region
• Sufficient
  rain will fall to improve winter wheat and rye emergence and establishment
• Some
  delay to summer crop maturation and harvest progress is expected as a result of the predicted rain.
  
• Western
  U.S. Corn Belt received mostly beneficial rain Friday into the weekend improving soybean filling conditions for the driest areas in Iowa, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois, Missouri and northeastern Kansas
• Too
  much rain fell from north-central Illinois to southeastern Wisconsin with totals of 2.00 to more than 8.00 inches resulting in some local flooding
• Most
  rain totals in the western Corn Belt varied from 0.15 inch to 0.86 inch
• Several
  areas from central Missouri through southeastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois reported 0.80 to 1.72 inches
  
• Significant
  amounts of up to 1.45 inches also occurred from southeastern Nebraska into west-central Iowa
• Some
  improvement in soil moisture occurred in the wetter areas
• Eastern
  Midwest rainfall through dawn today was greatest in central through northwestern Indiana, far western Ohio and far southwestern Michigan where 0.50 to 2.03 inches resulted
• Other
  areas in the eastern Midwest reported up to 0.65 inch with a few amounts to 1.50 inches
  
• West-central
  portions of the U.S. Plains (hard red winter wheat areas) were left dry or mostly dry during the weekend
  
• Showers
  did occur in the Texas Panhandle with rainfall to 0.51 inch and a part of central and western Oklahoma with amounts to 0.61 inch.
  
• Rain
  in south-central Nebraska varied from 0.19 to 1.45 inches
• U.S.
  Delta rainfall was limited to early in the weekend with coverage of 75% and moisture totals of 0.05 to 0.64 inch, although up to 1.25 inches occurred in interior southeastern Arkansas and 0.96 inch in south-central Mississippi
• U.S.
  southeastern states weekend rainfall was greatest from parts of Florida through eastern Georgia to the Carolinas with amounts of 0.50 to 2.35 inches, although a part of the Panhandle reported up to 5.44 inches
  
• Cape
  Canaveral, Fla. reported 3.72 inches of rain
• Net
  drying occurred in western and central Georgia, east-central Alabama and in a few locations in southern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama
• U.S.
  highest temperatures during the weekend varied from the 60s and 70s across the northern Plains while varying in the 80s in the Midwest and the 90s in the central and southern Plains while California experienced some cooling temperatures after another hot day
  Friday
• U.S.
  coldest morning temperatures during the weekend were in the upper 30s and 40s Fahrenheit in the northern and west-central high Plains, but no frost occurred outside of a few southwestern Montana locations
• U.S.
  ten-day outlook….
• Restricted
  rainfall in hard red winter wheat areas with a trace to 0.30 inch in the west and 0.20 to 0.75 inch in the east by mid-week next week
  
• Net
  drying is expected in the high Plains region
• Lower
  Midwest, Delta and southeastern states will receive a trace to 0.75 inch of rain with most areas getting less than 0.50 inch leading to net drying for the entire 10-day period
• Northern
  Midwest will be wettest with 0.50 to 2.00 inches and locally more by Sep. 21
• Northern
  Plains rainfall will vary from a trace to 0.50 inch with more than half of the region failing to get enough rain to counter evaporation
• A
  few areas in the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota could receive an inch of more
• U.S.
  Pacific Northwest rainfall will vary from 0.10 to 0.75 inch in the upper Snake River Basin while varying from a trace to 0.25 inch in the Yakima Valley and central Oregon crop areas
• Mostly
  dry in California
• 0.25
  to 1.25 inches in eastern Arizona and New Mexico
• Temperatures
  will be warmer than usual in the central and interior western U.S. and more seasonable farther to the east
• The
  U.S. bottom line still looks favorable for late season soybean and other crops that are still filling and beginning to mature. Sufficient moisture fell in many areas to help support late filling and maturing conditions. Pockets of dryness remain and that did
  continue stressing some of the late season crops, but overall the situation has been good for finishing out the crop. U.S. hard red winter wheat conditions vary greatly from being too dry in the west-central Plains to being more a little better off in areas
  to the south and east where some rain has occurred recently. U.S. Delta and southeastern states continue to experience a mix of conditions with some fields too wet for normal summer crop maturation and fieldwork while other areas were dry enough to support
  quick maturation and harvest progress. Dryness remained widespread in the western half of the U.S. leaving drought and water supply issues of great concern from the Pacific Northwest and California to the west-central and northwestern Plains. Weather conditions
  in the coming ten days are not likely to change these biases.
• Canada’s
  Prairies will be warmer than usual over the next week with below average precipitation
• Rain
  will be greatest along the front range of the Rocky Mountains in Alberta
• Most
  other areas in the Prairies will experience net drying, despite some showers
• Western
  and northern Alberta will continue wettest relative to all other areas in the Prairies
  
• Temperatures
  will continue warmer than usual, but not as hot as in recent past weeks
• Much
  colder weather is expected next week especially during mid- to late week with frost and freezes returning
• Some
  of the cold will already be present in Alberta a week from now
• Some
  increase in rainfall is possible ahead of the coldest temperatures next week
  
• Canada’s
  Prairies experienced some frost and a few freezes during the weekend
• Only
  a few areas were cold enough to end the growing season
• Most
  of the coolness had a low impact on immature crops, but it was good for mature crops
• Precipitation
  was mostly very limited
• Canada’s
  bottom line will remain mostly good for summer crop maturation and harvest progress, but there is a huge need for moisture in the southwestern parts of the Prairies where drought is six years old and must be relieved before spring to ensure a normal start
  to planting in the spring.
• Europe
  rainfall during the weekend was greatest from southern Belarus and western Ukraine into Hungary and eastern Slovakia as well as in a few western Balkan Countries and in northern France, Belgium and the Netherlands
• Rain
  totals varied from 0.60 to 2.25 inches with a few local totals of up to 3.34 inches
• One
  location in eastern Slovakia reported more than 6.00 inches of moisture resulting in some local flooding
• Some
  rain in the western Balkan Countries varied from 1.00 to 2.63 inches.
• Net
  drying occurred in most other areas in Europe, although up to 1.41 inches of rain did occur in northern France and a trace to 0.30 inch occurred in many other areas
• Europe
  rainfall will be greatest later this week through mid-week next week from Germany, Belgium and northeastern France to Ukraine, northern Romania, southern Belarus and parts of western Russia
  
• Rainfall
  will vary from 0.75 to 2.5 inches ensuring sufficient moisture for long term winter crop emergence and establishment
• Rainfall
  elsewhere will be more limited and net drying may occur more often than not
• The
  exceptions are in Portugal and far western Spain – due to remnants of Hurricane Danielle – and in a few areas of central Italy and the western Balkan Countries where local areas of greater rain are likely
• Some
  of the rainfall in these areas will vary from 2.00 to 4.00 inches and a few amounts could reach above 5.00 inches
• Europe’s
  bottom line look good for improving soil moisture and long term winter crop emergence and establishment from northeastern France and Germany into Ukraine and far western Russia. Locally heavy rain in Portugal, central Italy and from Slovenia into Bosnia could
  lead to a little flooding and a minor amount of crop damage. In contrast, more rain will be needed in France, the United Kingdom and Germany as well as from Italy into the lower Danube River Basin where relief to dryness will only be partial.
  
• Australia
  weekend rainfall was greatest from Victoria and southeastern South Australia into New South Wales where 0.05 to 0.88 inch resulted most often and local totals to 1.14 inches
• A
  few other showers occurred randomly in southeastern Queensland and northern parts of Western Australia, but resulting rainfall was rarely very great.
  
• Net
  drying occurred in most other areas
• Temperatures
  were near to below normal with eastern areas coolest
• Australia
  is still expected to see periodic bouts of rain over the next two weeks
• Rain
  will be greatest from Victoria to central and eastern New South Wales late Wednesday and Thursday when 0.50 to 1.50 inches will result
• Showers
  will also occur in Western Australia early this week and again periodically during many other days through the end of next week
• Queensland
  and South Australia will experience the least significant rainfall during the next ten days and net drying will result
• Australia’s
  bottom line still looks very good for winter wheat, barley and canola development. As long as the crop region warms up a little more in coming weeks and rain frequency does not get excessive, this year’s production will be huge. There is some concern about
  a wet bias in October and November that could harm the quality of some crops.
  
• Argentina
  rainfall is expected to be quite restricted over the next ten days maintaining concern over early summer crop planting prospects later this month and next
• Dryness
  will also be a concern for the nation’s wheat crop – especially in the west
• Some
  showers are expected, but they are not likely to be great enough for a last boost in soil moisture
• The
  earliest that rain will impact the nation is during the weekend and especially next week
• Argentina
  rain during the weekend was minimal
• Southern
  Brazil is expecting waves of rain during the next ten days which should translate into ongoing good wheat development in the far south, but drier weather may eventually be needed in wheat areas of Parana to protect grain quality
• Southern
  Brazil rainfall Friday through Sunday was not great enough to impact crops or fieldwork.
  
• Net
  drying occurred in many areas and Parana benefited from the change after becoming a little too wet late last week
• Showers
  advertised near and beyond mid-month in center west Brazil should be welcome if they verify, although early indications suggest the resulting rainfall will be sporadic and light which is normal for the first rain of the season
• The
  precipitation may offer some sign that seasonal rainfall will begin on time, but World Weather, Inc. urges a little caution because October rainfall is expected to be lighter and more sporadic and usual
• Brazil
  coffee, citrus and sugarcane areas may get some rain after Sep. 18, but advertised rainfall is light and confidence is low
  
• Ontario
  and Quebec, Canada weather remains mostly good for corn and soybeans with little change likely
• Alternating
  periods of rain and sunshine will continue along with seasonable temperatures
• the
  environment will be good for late season crop development,  maturation and early season harvesting
• South
  Africa precipitation is expected to be limited over the next ten days
• Winter
  crops are still semi-dormant in some areas and beginning to green up and resume development in other areas
• Showers
  will be infrequent and light while temperatures are warm which will stimulate some additional development
• Winter
  crops are still poised to perform well this spring as long as timely rain evolves late this month and in October.
  
• Central
  America, Colombia and parts of Venezuela are expected to trend wetter than usual in the next few weeks due to the persistent La Nina influence on the region
• North
  Africa showers at this time of year are always welcome, but have a minimal impact and that will be the case over the next ten days
• Mexico’s
  drought in the northeast continues and will not likely end without the help from a tropical cyclone
• With
  that said some significant rain fell a week ago in a few locations bringing some notable relief.
  
• This
  coming week’s rainfall will be trending lighter than usual once again
• Southern
  and western Mexico will get some rain periodically. through the next couple of weeks with sufficient amounts to maintain moisture abundance
• Southeast
  Asia rainfall is expected to be frequent and significant during the next ten days to two weeks
  
• All
  areas are expected to be impacted and sufficient rain is expected to bolster soil moisture for long term crop development need
  
• Local
  flooding is expected
• West-Central
  Africa showers and thunderstorms will continue frequently benefiting coffee and cocoa production areas during the next two weeks.
  
• Some
  rice, cotton and sugarcane will also benefit from this pattern
• Weekend
  precipitation was minimal, but it will be increasing later this week and next week
• East-central
  Africa rainfall will continue to occur most frequent and significantly in Ethiopia, Uganda and southwestern Kenya over the next two weeks
• Good
  coffee, cocoa and other crop development conditions will prevail
• Today’s
  Southern Oscillation Index was +10.06 and it will move a little higher over the next few days

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Sept. 12:

• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, 12pm
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board’s data on stockpiles, production and exports
• International
  Dairy Federation hosts World Dairy Summit, Sept. 12-15, New Delhi
• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• US
  crop conditions for corn, soybeans and cotton; spring wheat, corn, soybean harvesting, 4pm
• HOLIDAY:
  China, Hong Kong, Korea

Tuesday,
Sept. 13:

• China’s
  agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly report on supply and demand for corn and soybeans
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• France’s
  agriculture ministry updates 2022 production estimates
• New
  Zealand Food Prices

Wednesday,
Sept. 14:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• France
  AgriMer monthly grains outlook

Thursday,
Sept. 15:

• UkrAgroConsult’s
  Agro&Food Security Forum, Warsaw
• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Malaysia’s
  Sept. 1-15 palm oil export data

Friday,
Sept. 16:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• HOLIDAY:
  Malaysia

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range

Wheat                 
736,515                 versus   250000-625000

Corn                     
446,620                 versus   325000-825000

Soybeans           
329,225                 versus   400000-650000

 

 

 

GRAINS
INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

                 
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 08, 2022

                           
— METRIC TONS —

————————————————————————-

                                                  
CURRENT     PREVIOUS 

             ———–
WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

 
GRAIN      09/08/2022  09/01/2022  09/09/2021    TO DATE     TO DATE  

 

BARLEY     
        0         200           0        1,414        6,550 

CORN         
446,620     531,667     179,166      558,699      218,619 

FLAXSEED           
0           0           0            0           24 

MIXED              
0           0           0            0            0 

OATS             
100           0         100        6,486          200 

RYE                
0           0           0            0            0 

SORGHUM       
46,513      58,242       4,526       47,807        5,843 

SOYBEANS     
329,225     500,286     193,894      381,524      224,248 

SUNFLOWER        
384         192           0          384            0 

WHEAT        
736,515     538,329     567,438    6,399,999    7,183,714 

Total      
1,559,357   1,628,916     945,124    7,396,313    7,639,198 

————————————————————————-

CROP
MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED; 
SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES
WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

 

Corn

·        
US corn production was projected lower by USDA and prices reacted. See tables at the end of the comment. Our US SD will be released on Tuesday. 

·        
CBOT corn was lower earlier  on weekend US rains but the USDA report rebutted that.

·        
USD was sharply lower, down an impressive 100

·        
The US weather forecast is calling for warm temperatures through the third week of September, welcome for producers that had to plant late.

·        
The threat of US railroad strikes should be closely monitored. A slowdown in transportation may affect several markets and prices from ethanol deliveries to grocery store price hikes.

·        
We think the railroad strike would have a more pronounced impact on PNW and west TX premiums rather than gulf

·        
US Fed’s meet next week for the September 20-21 FOMC. Markets are penciling in a 75 point interest rate hike.

·        
USDA may resume the weekly export sales report September 15. We will issue both weekly estimates and a combined number on Tuesday. 

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported 

 

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans, meal and oil were higher following higher WTI crude oil and a sharply lower USD.  Following a bullish UDDA report. We see a US 160 carry post 200, eventually.

·        
Weekend rains for the upper Midwest were heavy, good for some areas for late season development and bad for others as local flooding occurred.

·        
MPOB Malaysian palm oil S&D data was released, and stocks were large, as expected (3-year high). Bu the large end of Aug palm stocks were trumped by improving early September palm shipments.

·        
SGS reported September 1-10 palm exports at 418,120 tons, up 25.5 percent from 333,277 tons shipped during Aug 1-10.

·        
ITS reported palm Malaysian palm oil exports for the 1-10 period up 16.2 percent at 423,912 tons from 364,910 tons from the same period month. AmSpec reported 371,091 tons, versus 339,669 previous.

·        
Malaysia palm oil futures traded 89 ringgit higher to 3,683 and cash was up $2.50/ton to $910/ton.

 

·        
China is on holiday.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were mixed from this time Friday morning, and SA meal 12-15 euros higher.

·        
Offshore values were leading soybean oil 75 points lower earlier this morning and meal $6.80 short ton higher.

 

Export
Developments

·        
No new developments since Friday.

·        
Results awaited. South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. seeks 30,000 tons of GMO-free soybeans on September 6 for arrival in SK between November 12 and Dec 12, and another arrival period of October 30 and November 30.

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat was lower but losses limited from a lower USD.  There was no real material changes from the USDA report.

·        
Some cited global economic slowdown concerns and others an overdone CBOT price increase posted Friday.

·        
We are optimistic Ukraine will continue grain shipments by sea, but something to monitor.  The agreement is expected to expire in November.

·        
Canada’s Prairies will be warmer than usual over the next week with below average precipitation.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Bangladesh canceled an earlier import tender for 50,000 tons of wheat set to close Aug 16.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on September 13 for March and April shipment.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of barley on September 14 after passing September 7 for Feb-Mar shipment. 

·        
Japan in a SBS import tender seeks 70,000 tons of feed wheat and 40,000 tons of barley on September 14 for arrival in Japan by February 24.

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat on September 18.  It’s for optional origin with shipment within 40 days of contract signing.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported