FI Evening Grain Comments 10/17/22

PDF Attached

 

USDA
crop progress was near expectations and US harvesting pressure should be seen later this week. A lower than estimated US crush was unexpected. Commercial hedging was good as same as Friday. No changes in US supply estimates.

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather, INC.

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER OF THE DAY

• Typhoon
  Nesat was in the South China Sea this morning and it will be a Category Two hurricane equivalent storm today and Tuesday before passing south of Hainan, China Wednesday and Thursday.
  
• The
  storm should weaken greatly as it interacts with Hainan and the odds are very good that the storm will have a minimal impact on northern Vietnam when it arrives late this week
  
• Flooding
  rain and some strong wind could damage rice and sugarcane on Hainan
• Eastern
  Australia rain will resume this week after a short term break during the weekend
• Rain
  will begin in South Australia today and quickly spread to New South Wales, Queensland Tuesday through Friday
• Victoria
  does not get much of this rain, but it will get rain this weekend
• Moisture
  totals for all three states by Saturday will vary from 0.75 to 2.00 inches with local totals of 2.00 to 4.00 inches
• Wettest
  in Queensland and northern New South Wales
• Flooding
  will resume and/or worsen in New South Wales with some expansion and development of it in Queensland
• Lighter
  waves of rain will continue periodically through Oct. 31 maintaining a wet bias, but no new flooding is expected
  
• Western
  Australia is still unlikely to receive much rain through the next ten days, but some showers will occur in portions of the south with rainfall to 0.60 inch
• Greater
  rain may impact the far south during the Oct. 27-31 period
• Torrential
  rain and serious flooding impacted the Da Nang, Hue and Quang Tri areas of Vietnam during the weekend. Rainfall ranged from 11.00 to 25.00 inches with local totals over 28.00 inches
  
• Da
  Nang reported over 25.00 inches in 24 hours
• Damage
  to personal property and infrastructure was serious and probably much greater than the impact on agriculture
• Argentina
  received rain from east-central Cordoba through central and southern Santa Fe to central and southern Entre Rios during the weekend
• Rainfall
  varied up to 0.68 inch through Sunday morning with Marcos Juarez, Cordoba reporting 1.50 inches
  
• Dry
  weather occurred elsewhere until this morning when showers popped up over Santiago del Estero and western Chaco producing less than 0.50 inch of rain
• Temperatures
  were seasonable
• Argentina
  will be dry early this week, but rain is expected Wednesday and Thursday helping to lift topsoil moisture in a portions of the nation, but much more rain will still be needed
• 60%
  coverage of 0.05 to 0.65 inch of rain is expected with a few greater amounts favoring the interior north
  
• Additional
  rain is expected Sunday into Tuesday of next week favoring central parts of the nation
• Brazil
  rainfall expected this workweek will be similar to that of last week favoring the interior south and western portions of center west
• The
  rain will maintain a good outlook for early season planting, emergence and establishment for soybeans, corn and other crops especially after relatively dry weather occurred during the weekend
• Rain
  this weekend into next week is expected to shift into northeastern Brazil where rainfall of 1.00 to 3.00 inches and locally more is expected
  
• Relief
  from seasonal dryness is expected and it should support new planting of soybeans and corn and improvement in sugarcane, and coffee conditions
• Brazil
  temperatures will be warm in the northeast and mild to cool elsewhere this week and then cooler in the northeast next week
  
• Argentina’s
  temperatures will be cool this week and a little warmer than usual next week
  
• U.S.
  temperatures are still expected to be colder than usual this week in most areas east of the Rocky Mountains
  
• Frost
  and freezes will occur southward into the Mid-south region; including the northern Delta and Tennessee River Basin Tuesday with hard freezes in the northern and central Plains and western and central Corn Belt
• Frost
  could occur southward into Arkansas, central Mississippi, central Alabama and northern Georgia Wednesday
  
• The
  growing season will be ended throughout the Midwest and into a part of the mid-south region
• Damage
  to immature crops is likely, but the impact should mostly be to crop quality
• Blackened
  soybeans are expected, but bean shattering should be rare
• U.S.
  rainfall is expected to be limited over the coming week
• Rain
  will fall in the Great Lakes region through Wednesday while most other areas are dry
• Rain
  in West Texas will end today and that which occurs in South Texas will end tonight and early Tuesday with another trace to 0.75 inch of rain expected
  
• Needed
  rain may evolve in a part of the Pacific Northwest this coming weekend with follow up rainfall next week, although the Yakima Valley will be left mostly dry as will California and the southern Great Basin
  
• This
  moisture will be welcome and should improve winter crop emergence and establishment while supporting an improved environment for more dryland planting, especially in Oregon
• Heavy
  rain is possible in the Cascade Mountains
• Montana
  is expected to receive rain and some snow Saturday and Sunday with the moisture likely to improve winter crop emergence and establishment
• U.S.
  weather next week will bring a couple of opportunities for light rain in the Midwest and eastern Plains, along with the Delta and Southeastern states
  
• The
  moisture will be associated with a couple of fast moving frontal systems
• Each
  occurrence of rain will be brief and light having a low impact on crop areas
• Drought
  will continue in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas through the next two weeks, despite some rain in the southern Plains during the weekend
  
• Rain
  during the weekend was greatest in southern Oklahoma and a few areas in north-central Texas where 0.35 to 1.38 inches resulted with local totals to 2.22 inches
• All
  of the greatest rainfall was in southern Oklahoma
• Showers
  in the Texas Panhandle during the weekend were no more than 0.43 inch with many areas getting less than 0.25 inch.
  
• Most
  of Kansas, Colorado and Nebraska were dry along with the northeastern Texas Panhandle and northwestern and north-central Oklahoma
• Late
  weekend rainfall in the northern Delta varied from 0.16 inch to 1.68 inches
• Rain
  elsewhere during the weekend in U.S. crop areas was restricted with less than 0.23 inch in the heart of the Midwest while 0.20 to 0.71 inch occurred in western Michigan
  
• Rain
  also fell in southern Florida during the weekend with rainfall locally moderate with a few 1.00- to 2.29-inch amounts
  
• Canada’s
  southwestern Prairies will get some rain and snow Saturday and Sunday
• The
  moisture will be welcome and should help put a little moisture in the ground ahead of the seasonal freeze up
• Another
  round of light precipitation is expected in the Prairies briefly late next week
• Canada
  temperatures will be warmer than usual this week and cooler next week
• Ontario
  and Quebec, Canada will be a little wet and cool for a while in this coming week slowing harvest progress
• Eastern
  China weather is still advertised mostly dry for the coming ten days
• There
  are two exceptions
• One
  is in the northeastern provinces where three weak disturbances are expected producing rain and eventually some snow
• A
  second area of rain is possible in Sichuan Hubei and some areas southward into Guangxi, Guangdong and Guizhou
• Rainfall
  of 0.30 to 1.00 inch with local totals of 1.00 to 2.00 inches are expected in each of these areas with some heavier rain in Guangxi and western Guangdong due to the dissipating storm Nesat moving over Hainan Tuesday through Thursday
  
• Xinjiang,
  China harvest weather should be favorable for most of the coming week with limited rainfall and seasonable temperatures
• Monsoonal
  rain in India will be slow in withdrawing in central and southern parts of the nation during the next two weeks
• The
  extra moisture may slow harvest progress and it may raise some crop quality issues for soybeans and pulse crops
• Drier
  weather is needed in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and immediate neighboring areas
• Thailand,
  Laos and parts of Vietnam will experience limited rainfall over the next ten days
• Drying
  will be welcome after recent stormy weather
• Cambodia
  and southern Vietnam (including portions of the Central Highlands) will receive moderate to heavy rainfall later this week and into next week
  
• Indonesia,
  Malaysia and Philippines will experience frequent rain, but not much excessive rain
• Local
  flooding will still be possible, but no widespread serious problems are anticipated
• Waves
  of rain will move across Europe during the next two weeks favoring western and central parts of the continent
  
• France
  will see improved water supply and soil moisture with some disruption to late season planting of autumn crops
• Lower
  Danube River Basin precipitation will continue more limited than most other areas in Europe
• Drought
  is threatening some of the unirrigated crop land, but mostly near the lower Danube River
• South
  Africa rainfall is expected to improve over the next ten days bringing needed moisture for soybean, corn, sunseed, cotton, rice and peanut planting which normally begins in the second half of this month.
  
• La
  Nina should help the summer weather be plenty moist – at least into December
• There
  is some potential for a drier finish to the growing season
• North
  Africa will be dry over the next ten days
• Recent
  rain improved topsoil moisture in several areas, but much more rain is needed
  
• A
  multi-year drought remains in Morocco
• The
  greatest rainfall in recent weeks has been in northern Algeria with central parts of the region experiencing adequate topsoil moisture for the first time since last winter.
• West-central
  Africa rainfall will occur periodically enough to support coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and other crops during the next couple of weeks
• The
  precipitation will be greatest in the south with Cameroon getting some heavy rainfall
• There
  is a southward shift in seasonal rainfall occurring which should be helping to support maturing cotton in the north
• East-central
  Africa rainfall will be sufficient to support coffee and cocoa as well as a few other crops
• Southern
  Ethiopia and Uganda will be wettest
• Limited
  rainfall is expected in Tanzania
• Mexico
  rainfall will be greatest in the south and east through the next ten days
• Western
  and northern Mexico rainfall will be more restricted
• Central
  America rainfall will continue periodically maintaining abundant soil moisture
• Today’s
  Southern Oscillation Index was +21.20 and it will move erratically lower over the next few days

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Oct. 17:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• US
  crop conditions and harvesting for corn, soybeans and cotton, winter wheat planting, 4pm
• Argus
  Fertilizer Europe conference, Madrid, day 1

Tuesday,
Oct. 18:

• China’s
  second batch of September trade data, including corn, pork and wheat imports
• China’s
  3Q pork output, hog inventory
• Oils
  & Fats International Congress, Kuala Lumpur, day 1
• Argus
  Fertilizer Europe conference, Madrid, day 2
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data

Wednesday,
Oct. 19:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Oils
  & Fats International Congress, Kuala Lumpur, day 2
• Argus
  Fertilizer Europe conference, Madrid, day 3

Thursday,
Oct. 20:

• China’s
  third batch of September trade data, including soybean, corn and pork imports by country
• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• International
  Grains Council report
• Malaysia’s
  Oct. 1-20 palm oil export data
• USDA
  total milk, red meat production, 3pm

Friday,
Oct. 21:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• Asia
  3Q 2022 cocoa grind data
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• US
  cattle on feed, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range

Wheat 
231,842                                 versus                   350000-725000

Corn     
448,423                                 versus                   375000-625000

Soybeans           
1,882,386             versus                   550000-1275000

 

 

 

GRAINS
INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

                 
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING OCT 13, 2022

                           
— METRIC TONS —

————————————————————————-

                                                  
CURRENT     PREVIOUS 

             ———–
WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

 
GRAIN      10/13/2022  10/06/2022  10/14/2021    TO DATE     TO DATE  

 

BARLEY             
0           0           0        1,414        8,147 

CORN         
448,423     457,366   1,048,617    3,286,228    4,168,337 

FLAXSEED         
100           0           0          100           24 

MIXED              
0           0           0            0            0 

OATS               
0           0         100        6,486          300 

RYE                
0           0           0            0            0 

SORGHUM        
5,124      20,665      39,435      109,667      339,298 

SOYBEANS   
1,882,386     976,877   2,451,398    4,669,685    6,035,217 

SUNFLOWER        
288         144         144        1,392          144 

WHEAT        
231,842     615,868     141,849    9,364,007    9,339,876 

Total      
2,568,163   2,070,920   3,681,543   17,438,979   19,891,343 

————————————————————————-

CROP
MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED; 
SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES
WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

 

Macros

98
Counterparties Take $2.172 Tln At Fed Reverse Repo Op (prev $2.222 Tln, 95 Bids)

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures were lower after a two-sided trade from mixed news, ongoing Black Sea shipping concerns and favorable US harvesting weather.

·        
Funds were estimated net sellers of 5,000 corn contracts.

·        
US river problems with low drafts are expected to keep inspections low for the month of November, as much as 20 percent below a 5-year average. Soybean inspections surprised the trade.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

Updated
10/09/22

December
corn is seen in a $6.50-$7.15 range. March $6.50-$7.50 range.

 

Soybeans

·        
The soybean complex
was mixed with a surprising move to the upside in bean oil. The move to the upside in bean oil was related to energies, before they sold off. Expect a correction in products. We are cautious buying soybean oil rallies.

·        
Funds were estimated be flat soybeans, flat meal and net buyers of 6,000 soybean il.

·        
NOPA reported a slower than expected crush for last month, surprising the trade, but we did hear of downtime and don’t expect rates to be slow going forward. Our crush estimate stands unchanged. See attached.

 

 

Export
Developments

• None
  reported

 

Updated
10/09/22

Soybeans
– November is seen in a $13.00-$14.50 range, January $13.25-$15.00

Soybean
meal – December $375-$440, January $360-$475

Soybean
oil – December 63.00-75.00, January wide 60.00-73.00 range

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures were mixed from on Black Sea concerns and uncertain direction for commodities

·        
News was light outside of the war headlines.

·        
Funds bought an estimated net 1,000 Chicago wheat contracts,

·        
Paris December wheat was off 5.00 euros at 356.25 per ton.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
South Korean millers seek 45,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday for Dec 16-Jan 15, 2023, shipment.

·        
The Philippines bought about 165,000 tons of feed wheat from Australia for Q1 shipment at an average of $345/ton C&F.

·        
Jordan opened another import tender for 120,000 tons of feed barley, set to close October 19.

·        
Japan in a SBS import tender seeks 70,000 tons of feed wheat and 40,000 tons of barley on October 19 for arrival by February 24.

·        
Mauritius seeks 25,800 tons of wheat flour, optional origin, on October 28 for January through September 30, 2023, shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
South Korea plans to buy 450,000 tons of rice for reserves this year October 20 through December to stabilize domestic prices. This would be up from 350,000 tons last year.

·        
South Korea seeks 90,100 tons of rice from the US, Vietnam and other origins on October 19 for arrival between Jan 20 and Apr 30.

·        
Mauritius seeks 6,000 tons of rice on October 20, optional origin, for Jan-Mar shipment.

 

Updated 10/7/22

Chicago – December $8.15-$10.00,
March $8.00 to $10.25

KC – December
$9.25-$10.50, March 8.50-$10.50

MN – December
$9.25-$10.50, March $9.00 to $10.50