FI Evening Grain Comments 10/21/22

PDF Attached does not include daily estimate of funds as they were NA. Commitment of Traders attached.

 

Wide
trade range in US agriculture products. The USD started the day off at a very strong level, only to trade more than 100 points lower by 2 pm CT. This sent agriculture markets lower to start and mixed to finish. Black Sea shipping uncertainties may have eased
for some traders but offers out of Ukraine after the first week of November are still thin. The 7-day US precipitation outlook again showed an improvement in rainfall across the central US. The Midwest weather outlook was unchanged from yesterday. The Great
Plains is a little wetter for the southeastern areas early next week. Argentina will see erratic rain across La Pampa, BA, south Santa Fe, southern Cordoba, and southern Entre Rios through Thursday. Brazil will see rain bias northern areas through Tuesday.

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

World
Weather, INC.

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER FOR THE COMING WEEK

• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat areas are advertised to get some rain this weekend and possibly again late next week and into the following weekend
• The
  second storm is too intense and the trend for this first storm has been to shift the greatest rainfall to the east in recent model runs
• Rainfall
  late this weekend into early next week will range from 1.00 to 3.00 inches and locally more in central and eastern Oklahoma and from there into Missouri with much lighter rainfall of 0.20 to 0.80 inch occurring from the Texas Panhandle to south-central Kansas
• Areas
  farther to the northwest in Kansas, Colorado and Nebraska will not be impacted by this first storm system
• Rainfall
  in the second event may range from 0.20 to 0.75 inch with a few totals over 1.00 inch
• Oklahoma
  and northern Texas will be wettest again
• River
  levels on the U.S. Arkansas and lower Missouri systems will increase as a result of the coming early week storm system producing some significant rain.
  
• Lighter
  rain will fall in the central Midwest, but a rise on the Mississippi River is probable for a short period of time in the middle to latter part of next week
• The
  rise will be temporary and follow up precipitation will be important to sustain any higher river levels
  
• Anticipated
  rises should not have a dramatic impact on barge restrictions and the rises are expected to be of short duration
• First
  major snow event of the season is expected the late weekend into early next week from eastern Montana through southern and eastern portions of Saskatchewan to western Manitoba, Canada
• Snow
  accumulations of 4 to 10 inches will be common with local totals to 15 inches
• The
  moisture boost that will accompany this storm will improve early 2023 spring planting prospects in areas that have been quite dry recently
• Precipitation
  in the U.S. Pacific Northwest in the coming week will improve soil moisture and snowpack in the mountains, but central Washington is not likely to get much moisture from the events
• Central
  Oregon drought will be eased by the rain with moisture totals of 0.10 to 0.50 inch and local totals to 1.00 inch possible by the end of this month.
  
• Tropical
  Storm Roslyn is expected to become a Category Two hurricane this weekend prior to landfall Sunday in Nayarit and southern Sinaloa, Mexico
• Some
  crop damage is expected along and near the coast along with property and infrastructure damage
• Remnants
  of the storm will produce flooding rain into Durango, Mexico
• The
  remainder of Mexico should not be seriously impacted by this storm, but the moisture feed from it will stream off into Texas, Oklahoma and Missouri for early next week where heavy rain is predicted
• Eastern
  U.S. Midwest and southeastern states are not expecting much precipitation for a while, but later next week there will be some brief showers
  
• Fieldwork
  will advance around any precipitation that develops
• Ontario
  and Quebec, Canada will see periodic rainfall over the next two weeks, but the volume of moisture will be lighter than that which has occurred in recent weeks allowing some better field progress to take place
• Argentina
  weather will be favorable for crops and fieldwork during the next ten days, although rain expected will often be light leaving an ongoing need for more significant rain
• Nearly
  all crop areas will have opportunity for at least some rain during the next ten days, but some of it will be light leaving the need for much more moisture
• Crops
  will respond to whatever rain falls and there should be a general improvement for the planting of early season corn and sunseed as a result of each rain event
• It
  will take much of the coming week for all areas to get at least a little rain
• Brazil
  weather will continue highly favorable for crops and fieldwork over the next two weeks.
  
• All
  areas will get rain at one time or another and relief to long term dryness is expected in eastern Mato Grosso, parts of Goias, Minas Gerais, Bahia and Tocantins
• Some
  rain will also reach Piaui by the middle part of next week
• The
  greatest rainfall for center west and center south Brazil is expected to occur in the second week of the two-week forecast
• Eastern
  Australia will continue too wet, although the volume of rain that occurs with each event is not expected to be as heavy as some events have been recently
• River
  flooding and areas of standing water will continue in many crop areas
• Concern
  over grain and oilseed crop conditions and production potential will be high until this year’s harvest is done
• Planting
  of early season sorghum and cotton will be slow starting this year because of wet and cool conditions
• Western
  Australia and some crops in South Africa will experience the best generalized fieldwork during the next ten days to two weeks
  
• High
  yields and good grain quality is expected from Western Australia in particular
• A
  tropical cyclone will evolve over the Bay of Bengal during the next few days and will impact Bangladesh, northwestern Myanmar and the far eastern states of India during the early to middle part of next week
  
• Damage
  potential to crops may be low, but the storm has not formed yet leaving plenty of potential for change in the next few days
• South
  Africa rainfall will be increasing in the next week to ten days supporting aggressive early season planting of most coarse grain, oilseed and cotton crops
• The
  precipitation may disrupt wheat, barley and canola harvesting, but the bulk of those crops are produced farther to the west where rainfall should be infrequent, brief and light.
  
• Eastern
  China’s weather is not changing much with net drying likely in many areas during the next ten days
• Some
  rain will fall in the upper Yangtze River Basin benefiting soil moisture and supporting some rapeseed planting activity
• Lower
  portions of the Yangtze River Basin is still in need of rain – especially areas south of the river in southeastern portions of the nation
• China’s
  summer crop harvest has progressed well in recent weeks after seasonal drying kicked in
  
• Little
  change is expected for a while
• Xinjiang,
  China harvest weather should be favorable for most of the coming week with limited rainfall and seasonable temperatures
• Seasonably
  dry weather will continue in China’s North China Plain and Yellow River Basin
• Europe
  weather will continue wettest in the west and northern parts of the continent while dryness prevails in the southeast
• Europe’s
  southern Balkan region has the greatest need for rain – especially the lower Danube River Basin which remains in drought
• Soil
  moisture and water supply improvements are likely in northwestern Europe
• Western
  CIS weather will remain well mixed over the next ten days to two weeks supporting winter crops as they await dormancy
• North
  Africa weather has trended for a while and not much precipitation is expected in the coming ten days
• Interior
  Thailand and northern Laos will experience limited rainfall over the next ten days
• Rain
  will fall in Cambodia and much of Vietnam during the next ten days with some moderate to locally heavy rainfall possible
• Waves
  of heavy rain will be impacting central Vietnam over the next ten days resulting in more flooding for areas that already experienced such conditions in the past weekend
• Indonesia,
  Malaysia and Philippines will experience frequent rain, but not much excessive rain
• Local
  flooding will still be possible, but no widespread serious problems are anticipated
• West-central
  Africa rainfall will occur periodically enough to support coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and other crops during the next couple of weeks
• The
  precipitation will be greatest in the south with Cameroon getting some heavy rainfall
• There
  is a southward shift in seasonal rainfall occurring which should be helping to support maturing cotton in the north
• East-central
  Africa rainfall will be sufficient to support coffee and cocoa as well as a few other crops
• Southern
  Ethiopia and Uganda will be wettest
• Limited
  rainfall is expected in Tanzania
• Mexico
  rainfall will be restricted over the next ten days except in the far south where frequent showers and thunderstorms are expected and for west-central parts of the nation where Hurricane Roslyn is expected Sunday and Monday
• Central
  America rainfall will continue periodically maintaining abundant soil moisture
• Today’s
  Southern Oscillation Index was +19.57 and it will move lower over the next few days

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Oct. 24:

• MARS
  monthly EU crop conditions report
• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• US
  crop conditions and harvesting for corn, soy, cotton; winter wheat plantation and condition, 4pm
• US
  cold storage data for pork, beef, poultry, 3pm
• Cane
  crush, sugar output data by Brazil’s Unica (tentative)
• HOLIDAY:
  India, Singapore, Malaysia, New Zealand, Thailand

Tuesday,
Oct. 25:

• Malaysia’s
  Oct. 1-25 palm oil export data
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• EARNINGS:
  ADM

Wednesday,
Oct. 26:

• Asia-Pacific
  Agri-Food Innovation Summit, Singapore, day 1
• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• EARNINGS:
  Bunge, Pilgrim’s Pride
• HOLIDAY:
  India

Thursday,
Oct. 27:

• Asia-Pacific
  Agri-Food Innovation Summit, Singapore, day 2
• Virtual
  New Food Invest Conference, EMEA
• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am

Friday,
Oct. 28:

• Asia-Pacific
  Agri-Food Innovation Summit, Singapore, day 3
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for
• various
  US futures and options, 3:30pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

CFTC
Commitment of Traders

(Funds
estimates for Friday are not available)

 

 

 

 

Reuters
table

SUPPLEMENTAL     
Non-Comm               Indexes                  Comm

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg        Net        Chg

Corn              
176,234    -17,643    356,120       -136   -469,267     12,084

Soybeans           
10,630     -5,044    113,159     -2,027    -95,835      4,517

Soyoil             
43,406     17,117     98,026      2,632   -156,812    -24,313

CBOT
wheat         -41,483      1,957    104,150     -4,383    -56,402      2,243

KCBT
wheat           8,099      1,982     48,293     -1,507    -55,041     -1,311

 

FUTURES
+ OPTS     Managed                 Swaps              Producer

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg        Net        Chg

Corn              
254,261    -13,117    219,794      3,736   -455,253      8,379

Soybeans           
66,862      1,124     72,062     -2,711    -90,790      5,085

Soymeal            
70,797        406     79,452       -511   -193,866     -3,095

Soyoil             
74,974     13,991     85,355        502   -176,905    -24,922

CBOT
wheat         -22,051     -2,548     60,721        714    -47,436      1,084

KCBT
wheat          26,270       -239     27,146       -637    -50,680     -1,855

MGEX
wheat           3,809       -307        837        118     -5,907      1,634

                
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-

Total
wheat          8,028     -3,094     88,704        195   -104,023        863

Live
cattle         37,299      2,236     52,749     -1,219   -106,580       -948

Feeder
cattle       -9,018        778      3,601        426      6,082       -381

Lean
hogs           35,787     14,763     46,996        156    -71,516    -10,682

 

                     
Other             NonReport                  Open

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg   Interest        Chg

Corn               
44,285     -4,694    -63,085      5,695  1,856,288    -30,122

Soybeans          
-20,180     -6,053    -27,953      2,554    847,777     14,590

Soymeal            
18,433      2,361     25,183        837    414,496     11,071

Soyoil              
1,195      5,864     15,380      4,565    459,121     20,065

CBOT
wheat          15,031        568     -6,265        183    404,388     -6,590

KCBT
wheat          -1,385      1,896     -1,350        836    174,916        739

MGEX
wheat           2,434       -167     -1,173     -1,277     58,504       -762

                
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-

Total
wheat         16,080      2,297     -8,788       -258    637,808     -6,613

Live
cattle         19,691        153     -3,159       -223    321,153        606

Feeder
cattle       -1,870       -301      1,206       -524     60,773       -547

Lean
hogs           -3,175        316     -8,091     -4,553    247,253     -9,499

 

Macros

100
Counterparties Take $2.266 Tln At Fed Reverse Repo Op (prev $2.234 Tln, 99 Bids)

Canadian
Retail Sales (M/M) Aug: 0.7% (est 0.2%; prevR -2.2%)

Canadian
Retail Sales Ex Auto (M/M) Aug: 0.7% (est 0.3%; prevR -2.5%)

Canada
Wholesale Trade Falls 0.2% In Sept.: Statcan Flash

Canada
Retail Sales Fall 0.5% In Sept.

 

Corn

·        
December corn settled 0.25 cent higher, March up 0.50 cent and back months 0.25-1.0 cent lower. For the week December corn was down 0.8%.

·        
Corn futures started lower from a higher USD and weakness in wheat, but prices reversed after the USD traded sharply lower.

·        
The back end of the 7-day US Midwest weather outlook calls for precipitation for parts of the Midwest but much more rain is needed to boost river levels.

·        
China today offered to sell 20,000 tons of pork from reserves.

·        
USDA Cattle on Feed was at expectations. Inventories are up for the third consecutive month and for the month of September are at a three year low.

 

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

Updated
10/09/22

December
corn is seen in a $6.50-$7.15 range. March $6.50-$7.50 range.

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans traded two-sided. The USD dictated today’s direction. For the products, after a lower start, fund buying lifted soybean oil higher during the morning session. Bull spreading in soybean oil was thought to be speculation
US biofuel production is rapidly expanding and soybean stocks will tighten before the new-crop crush replenishes supplies. Others noted rolling Ukraine blackouts are reducing crush rates, reducing sunflower oil production. CBOT soybean meal rebounded well
off their session lows to close higher.

·        
December soybean oil share:

 

·        
US soybean meal basis was steady to weaker across the US Midwest. Soybean meal basis offers fell $3 per ton at a Decatur, Indiana. One dealer noted the spread of bird flu disease was slowing demand.

·        
For the week November soybeans were up 0.8%, December soybean oil up 9.5% and December meal up 1.7%.

·        
Sections of the Mississippi River are closed in Missouri, Kentucky and Tennessee .

·        
Argentina’s September soybean crush was 2.87 million tons, down 9 percent from 3.15 million during August and well below September 2021 (off 22 percent).

·        
Malaysia will be closed for holiday on Monday.

·        
Malaysian palm oil futures for the week were up 7 percent. Heavy rainfall may disrupt production across Indonesia and Malaysia over the short term. Malaysia palm oil exports so far during October are down from the previous month.

 

Export
Developments

• None
  reported

 

Updated
10/21/22

Soybeans
– November is seen in a $13.25-$14.50 range, January $13.25-$15.00

Soybean
meal – December $375-$430, January $360-$475

Soybean
oil – December 68.00-76.00,
January wide 60.00-73.00 range

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat ended mixed with Chicago higher, KC lower, and nearby MN wheat lower. Traders have mixed views over the Black Sea safe passage agreement. We are hearing there are not many offers beyond early November for wheat out of the
Black Sea.

·        
Wheat started the day lower after Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said that he sees “no obstacles to extending a U.N.-brokered deal allowing Ukrainian Black Sea grain exports, after discussions with his Russian and Ukrainian
counterparts,” quoting a Reuters article. This comes a day after wheat rallied from rumors ships will not be able to enter selected Ukraine ports around November 5, allowing for the current lineup to finish loadings and inspections in preparation of an end
of the safe passage agreement, set to expire sometime during the third week of November.

·        
For the week December Chicago was down 1.0%, December KC down 0.4% and December Mn up 0.8%.

·        
FranceAgriMer reported France planted 46% of their soft winter wheat crop as of October 17, up from 21 percent week earlier and compares to 36 percent year ago. Barley was 67 percent planted, up from 54 percent year ago.

·        
Paris December wheat ended up 1.0% at 342.50 euros ($337.19) a ton. For the week it was down 2.5%.

·        
China will auction off 40,200 tons of wheat from state reserves on October 26. They sold 41,359 tons on October 12.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Turkey bought 470,000 tons of wheat at $329.40 to $354.00 per ton for November through FH December shipment.

·        
Results are awaited for Saudi Arabia’s SAGO seeking 535,000 tons of wheat for March and April shipment. It includes 12.5% protein hard milling wheat.

·        
Thailand seeks up to 180,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat for Feb-Apr shipment.

·        
Iraq is in for 50,000 tons of wheat on October 24, valid until October 27.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on October 25 after buying 60,000 tons this week at $374/ton c&f for FH March shipment. 

·        
Pakistan seeks 500,000 tons of wheat on October 26.

·        
Jordan reopened another import tender for barley set to close October 26.

·        
Mauritius seeks 25,800 tons of wheat flour, optional origin, on October 28 for January through September 30, 2023, shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported

 

Updated 10/19/22

Chicago
– December $8.15-$9.00, March $8.00 to $10.00

KC
– December $9.25-$10.00, March 8.50-$10.50

MN
– December $9.25-$10.25, March $9.00 to $10.50