FI Evening Grain Comments 11/14/22

PDF Attached includes crop progress and commitment of traders

 

USD
was up 56 points (3.:09 pm CT), WTI crude off $3.78 and US equities lower. Increasing concerns over the number of covid cases in China weighted on several commodity markets. The CBOT ag markets were mixed with the soybean complex lower, corn lower and wheat
higher. Wheat was underpinned by good global import demand and Argentina production concerns. South America saw as expected beneficial rain over the weekend.

 

Calls:

Soybeans
steady to 4 lower

Corn
steady to 2 lower

Chicago
wheat 2-5 lower

 

 

Weather

US
rainfall for the Great Plains over the weekend was as expected. Temperatures will be on the cooler side this week for the majority of the US but expect late harvesting to proceed. The Midwest will see light precipitation today across the west-central areas,
and north-central areas Tuesday through Wednesday. South America saw rain over the weekend and will receive more over the next week, with exception of Argentina trending drier through Wednesday. Argentina may see isolated showers Thursday through Friday. Canada’s
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba will see isolated snow showers through Wednesday.

 

 

World
Weather, INC.

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER FOR THE COMING WEEK

• Portions
  of Argentina received significant rain during the weekend
• Rain
  fell in many areas, but it was not significant from southern Santiago del Estero and far northern Cordoba to northern Santa Fe and southern Corrientes where net drying resulted
• Rainfall
  in most other areas varied from 0.50 to 1.77 inches with a few greater rain totals. One location in central Cordoba reported over 5.00 inches of rain
• The
  moisture helped bolster topsoil moisture for improved winter crop development and summer crop planting, emergence and establishment
• Rain
  in Brazil during the weekend was most significant from Mato Grosso do Sul and central and southern Paraguay to Sao Paulo, southern and eastern Minas Gerais and areas southward through northwestern Rio Grande do Sul
  
• Rainfall
  varied from 1.00 to 2.75 inches most often with local totals over 5.00 inches in central Paraguay and southwestern Mato Grosso do Sul
• Locally
  heavy rain to nearly 5.00 inches also occurred in northwestern Rio Grande do Sul
• Lighter
  rain scattered across northern parts of Brazil where many areas did not get enough rain to counter evaporation, but rain is expected in these areas later this week. 
  
• South
  America temperatures were warm with many 80- and lower 90-degree Fahrenheit highs noted
• Brazil
  weather over the next two weeks will provide alternating periods of rain and sunshine
• All
  areas will get rain at one time or another; however, some of the rainfall will be infrequent and light leaving need for more moisture.
  
• A
  close watch on the daily rain distribution is warranted since some areas may not get as much rain as desired, but sufficient amounts should occur to support farming activity and crop development
  
• The
  potential for crop stress will be high if the drier areas miss rain too many times and temperatures trend warmer
• No
  serious issues are expected right away, although central and far northwestern Argentina will be in need of greater rainfall
• Argentina
  will experience net drying conditions during much of the coming week; however, some rain is expected over southern and western parts of the nation during mid- to late week this week that will help maintain favorable soil moisture in those areas
• Resulting
  daily rainfall will rarely be more than 0.50 inch, but there will be a few greater amounts possible
• Eastern
  Argentina will experience net drying conditions most of this week
• Temperatures
  will be near to slightly warmer than usual
• Argentina
  weather may trend wetter briefly during the late weekend and early part of next week
• South
  America temperatures over the next two weeks will be relatively close to normal, although Paraguay and immediate neighboring areas will be cooler biased in both weeks
• The
  cool conditions will help conserve soil moisture during the drier days
• No
  area in Brazil or Argentina will experience any prolonged period of hot weather.
  
• Most
  temperatures will be seasonable, but no prolonged period of too much or too little heat is expected
• A
  surprising region of heavy snow fell Friday night into Saturday morning from southeastern Missouri to southern Indiana and southwestern Ohio
  
• 4-6
  inches and a local total of 9 inches occurred from interior southeastern Missouri to the Effingham area of Illinois with are as south and east of St. Louis, Missouri reporting the heaviest snow
• The
  area was surrounded by 1 to 3 inches of snow that occurred from southeastern Missouri to southwestern Ohio
• Snow
  also fell from Northern Minnesota to Upper Michigan and along the eastern shore of Lake Michigan during the weekend with accumulations of 2 to 6 inches and local totals to 10 inches
• Much
  of the Michigan snow was “Lake Effect” enhanced
• Remnants
  of Tropical Storm Nicole moved through the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada during the weekend with moisture totals reaching 1.00 to 3.20 inches
• Rain
  fell from central and eastern Tennessee to northern Georgia and into the Carolinas and Virginia during the weekend with amounts of 0.30 to 1.30 inches with local totals of nearly 2.00 inches
• Much
  of this was also associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole
• Rain
  developed in eastern Texas during the weekend and reached into the western Delta before dissipating
• Moisture
  totals varied from 0.20 to 1.50 inches in Texas and central Louisiana, but was less than 0.35 inch in the Delta
• Weekend
  weather was dry in most of the northern, central and southwestern U.S. Plains as well as in much of the western states, although some rain and mountain snow fell from western through southern Oregon and in northern California, including the northern Sierra
  Nevada
• Moisture
  totals in the far west was no more than 0.60 inch along the coast and .35 inch in the mountains
  
• Snowfall
  in western U.S. so far, this cool season has been above normal from the Continent Divide westward, but it is important to note that snowfall is normally limited during these early weeks of the cool season
• Precipitation
  has been greater than usual outside of southern California and the southwestern desert region
• U.S.
  temperatures during the weekend were well below normal in many areas from the Plains and western Midwest into Canada’s Prairies and a part of the Pacific Northwest
• Freezes
  occurred southward into central Texas and the interior southern Delta
• Subzero
  Fahrenheit low temperatures occurred as far south as north-central Nebraska
  
• U.S.
  temperatures will be colder than usual most of this week excepting the Atlantic coast states where readings will average near normal
• Temperatures
  in the 6- to 10-day period, Nov. 17-22, will continue colder than usual from the interior western states through the Great Plains and Midwest to the Atlantic Coast States
• Temperatures
  in the days 11 to 15, Nov. 23-27, will be trending warmer, although the eastern half of Nort6h America will still be a little cooler than usual
• U.S.
  precipitation during the next ten days will be light in most areas with the central and southern Great Basin, California, southern Rocky Mountain region and west-central through the southwestern Plains expecting limited precipitation
• Areas
  from southern Texas to the southeastern states may get precipitation of greater significance late this week and into the weekend
• A
  boost in precipitation may also impact the Midwest and interior southern states late next week and into the following weekend
• Europe
  precipitation during the weekend was largely limited and warmer than usual
• Western
  CIS precipitation during the weekend was most concentrated across northern and eastern crop areas of Russia while the southwest and south-central crop areas were largely dry
• Europe
  weather will trend wetter this week and continuing into next week
• Most
  areas will be impacted with rain and mountain snow during the next two weeks which should improve soil moisture
  
• Northeastern
  Europe, western Russia, and parts of Ukraine will trend colder than usual later this week and into next week raising heating fuel demand
• Some
  increase in snow cover is expected as well
• Western
  Europe temperatures will cool to near normal after being well above normal recently
• Sufficient
  moisture in Europe and the western CIS during the next two weeks will be good for crops either now or in the spring. Cool weather in the western Russia and Ukraine will push crops further into dormancy and the snow that falls will help protect crops from the
  colder conditions. Some relief from drought is possible in the lower Danube River Basin and in a part of both southern France and eastern Spain, but more moisture will be needed in each of these areas.
  
• China
  will receive much needed rain near and south of the Yangtze River Basin this week that will relieve drought and improve rapeseed planting, emergence and establishment conditions
• Weekend
  precipitation in China was greatest in northern wheat production areas and into the northeastern provinces
• Moisture
  totals varied from 1.00 to 3.00 inches from northeastern Shaanxi to southern Jilin and southern Heilongjiang
• Some
  winter crops will benefit from the moisture and other areas will put the moisture to use next spring
• Winter
  crop establishment should improve, although some of the precipitation occurred as snow
• The
  precipitation will drift to the south this week, but will diminish which may leave need for more moisture in east-central parts of the nation
• U.S.
  navigable river water levels will drift lower in the coming week, although parts of the lower Delta will get enough moisture for a short-term boost in water levels briefly next week
  
• Ontario
  and Quebec, Canada weather will be mostly good for advancing corn and soybean harvesting and winter crop planting and establishment during the next ten days, despite a couple of precipitation events
  
• Precipitation
  days will be limited and moisture totals should be light
• Waves
  of rain are still expected in far southern India over the next ten days keeping the ground abundantly to excessively wet, but the outlook is not as wet as advertised late last week
• Weekend
  rainfall varied from 1.00 to 2.25 inches with a few amounts long the coast of Tamil Nadu approaching 5.00 inches
• Less
  rain is expected for a while this week, but a tropical cyclone may impact far southern India late this week into early next week
  
• Heavy
  rain may return to Tamil Nadu during this period of time with flooding possible especially along the coast.
• Indonesia,
  Malaysia, Philippines, southern Vietnam, southern Cambodia and southern Thailand will be wet over the next ten days to two weeks
  
• Some
  areas of local flooding are likely periodically
• Rain
  resumed in eastern Australia during the weekend
• Fieldwork
  was disrupted and rain amounts varied from 0.35 to 2.00 inches with local totals reaching 5.00 inches in north-central New South Wales.
  
• A
  few other local totals over 3.00 inches were noted
• Some
  new flooding may have occurred in areas of heavier rainfall
• A
  return of restricted precipitation is expected this week with some additional rain likely during the coming weekend
• No
  heavy rain is expected
• Western
  Australia will often be colder than usual during the next ten days
• Western
  Australia winter crops are still well on their way to yielding very well with high quality as well.
  
• Rain
  will be limited throughout the forecast period, although totally dry weather is not likely and the cooler days will help conserve soil moisture
• Warming
  might be helpful in accelerating crop development rates
• South
  Africa has received rain frequently in recent weeks and more will fall periodically over the next two weeks
• Summer
  crop planting will advance around the moisture
• Some
  delay to farming activity will occur periodically, but progress will be made
  
• Rainfall
  this week may be lighter than usual allowing greater fieldwork to advance
• Good
  harvest weather is expected for wheat and canola in the western part of the nation where rainfall is expected to be very limited over the next two weeks
• Temperatures
  will be seasonable with a slight warmer bias
• Week
  two weather may trend a little wetter
• Mexico’s
  seasonal rains have largely diminished for the season and good crop maturation and harvest weather is expected into next week
• Some
  rain will fall lightly in eastern portions of the nation periodically in the coming week to ten days
  
• Central
  America precipitation is expected to continue periodically during the next ten days, but no large region of excessive rain is expected this week
• Panama,
  Costa Rica and portions of southern and eastern Nicaragua will be wettest
• Some
  increase in rainfall may occur next week
• West-central
  Africa rainfall will occur periodically enough to support southern coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and other crops during the next couple of weeks
• The
  precipitation will be greatest near the coast
• East-central
  Africa rainfall will be sufficient to support coffee and cocoa as well as a few other crops
• Rain
  will fall in portions of Ethiopia, Tanzania and Uganda
• Today’s
  Southern Oscillation Index was +8.90 and it will move erratically lower over the next few days

 

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Nov. 14:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• US
  crop harvesting for corn, soy and cotton; winter wheat plantation and condition, 4pm
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options (delayed release as Friday was a holiday)
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Council’s Internet Seminar, through Nov. 18

Tuesday,
Nov. 15:

• World
  Rice Conference in Phuket, Thailand – day 1
• Global
  Grain Geneva conference – day 1
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Malaysia’s
  Nov. 1-15 palm oil export data
• Bloomberg
  New Economy Forum in Singapore, through Nov. 17
• HOLIDAY:
  Brazil

Wednesday,
Nov. 16:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• World
  Rice Conference in Phuket – day 2
• Global
  Grain Geneva conference – day 2
• Panel
  on global food crisis at Bloomberg New Economy Forum

Thursday,
Nov. 17:

• International
  Grains Council’s monthly report
• USDA
  weekly net- export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• World
  Rice Conference in Phuket – day 3
• Global
  Grain Geneva conference – day 3

Friday,
Nov. 18:

• China’s
  second batch of Oct. trade data, including corn, pork, wheat imports
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• US
  cattle of feed, 3pm

Sunday,
Nov 20:

• China’s
  third batch of October trade data, including soy, corn and pork imports by country

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

From
trade sources:

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range

Wheat                 
76,408                   versus   100000-500000  range

Corn                     
484,001                 versus   200000-500000  range

Soybeans           
1,857,872             versus   2000000-2650000             range

 

Inspections
were below expectations for wheat and soybeans and within for corn. Corn exports are still well below average for this time of wheat while wheat was a marketing year low. China topped the lists for soybeans and corn.

 

 

 

GRAINS
INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

                 
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING NOV 10, 2022

                           
— METRIC TONS —

—————————————————————————

                          
                        CURRENT     PREVIOUS 

             ———–
WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

 
GRAIN      11/10/2022  11/03/2022  11/11/2021    TO DATE     TO DATE  

 

BARLEY           
147           0           0        1,708        9,743 

CORN         
484,001     232,510     866,891    4,932,666    7,001,078 

FLAXSEED         
100           0           0          200           24 

MIXED              
0           0           0            0            0 

OATS              
 0           0           0        6,486          300 

RYE                
0           0           0            0            0 

SORGHUM        
2,559       4,671      10,509      220,499      514,703 

SOYBEANS   
1,857,872   2,606,157   2,434,312   14,691,125   16,624,859 

SUNFLOWER         
96           0           0        2,160          432 

WHEAT         
76,408     181,989     400,219    9,905,517   10,320,335 

Total      
2,421,183   3,025,327   3,711,931   29,760,361   34,471,474 

—————————————————————————-

CROP
MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED; 
SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES
WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

 

Commitment
of Traders

Funds
were less long in corn and more long than expected in wheat.

 

 

 

 

 

Reuters
table

SUPPLEMENTAL     
Non-Comm               Indexes                  Comm

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg        Net        Chg

Corn              
153,241    -43,445    360,572      1,876   -465,024     37,952

Soybeans           
55,763     -1,450    120,152        774   -147,911       -663

Soyoil             
64,213      4,263    106,768      2,518   -183,293     -5,285

CBOT
wheat         -58,482     -6,051    109,036      3,660    -45,106      1,599

KCBT
wheat           6,250      1,462     46,331     -1,579    -51,783       -102

 

FUTURES
+ OPTS     Managed                 Swaps              Producer

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg        Net        Chg

Corn              
237,662    -34,297    233,443     11,640   -460,714     29,924

Soybeans 
         103,908      2,579     76,764        907   -142,429     -1,759

Soymeal            
95,420      2,002     81,741      2,261   -225,037     -3,807

Soyoil            
105,210      5,092     84,008      2,873   -199,800     -6,491

CBOT
wheat         -42,902     -5,754     64,946      1,311    -37,443        797

KCBT
wheat          24,433      1,024     30,998      2,381    -50,621     -2,764

MGEX
wheat           3,055       -759      1,910        734     -5,008        731

Total
wheat        -15,414     -5,489     97,854      4,426    -93,072     -1,236

Live
cattle         62,181     -3,867     53,073        -81   -127,123      2,934

Feeder
cattle       -5,993        500      3,304        181      4,739       -260

Lean
hogs           54,514     -5,055     45,793       -356    -82,827      2,851

 

                     
Other             NonReport                  Open

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg   Interest        Chg

Corn               
38,397    -10,884    -48,788      3,617  1,920,077      3,959

Soybeans          
-10,237     -3,066    -28,004      1,339    703,484     34,362

Soymeal            
19,203       -749     28,673        292    453,467     18,374

Soyoil             
-1,729         24     12,312     -1,497    518,361     25,192

CBOT
wheat          20,848      2,853     -5,448        793    443,703      8,679

KCBT
wheat          -4,011       -861       -798        220    172,714     -6,470

MGEX
wheat           2,041       -204     -1,998       -502     52,363     -5,361

Total
wheat         18,878      1,788     -8,244        511    668,780     -3,152

 

Live
cattle         16,528     -2,432     -4,658      3,446    351,835     -5,744

Feeder
cattle       -1,240       -185       -810       -236     58,681      1,239

Lean
hogs           -6,038        456    -11,442      2,104    252,403     -5,415

 

Macros

US
Imposes New Russia-Related Sanctions 

Fed’s
Brainard: Will Probably Be Appropriate ‘Soon’ To Move To A Slower Pace Of Hikes

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures were 0.75-4.50 cents lower from a higher USD and lack of fresh news. WTI traded sharply lower and was down more than $3.00 during afternoon trading.

·        
The December-March futures spread has recently firmed. US WCB basis remains very strong for this time of year and Miss. River water levels have improved. Not to mention US stocks are tight.

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of November 10, 2022 were 484,001 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 232,510 tons previous week and compares to 866,891 tons year ago. Major countries included China for 208,077
tons, Mexico for 183,487 tons, and Japan for 62,156 tons.

·        
Eight grain vessels left Ukraine Sunday headed for various countries, a sign shipments are ongoing despite no concrete decision by Russia to extend the grain deal. Russia did indicate the UN talks were constructive.

·        
France completed their corn harvest.

·        
Denmark reported a H5N1 bird flu outbreak on a turkey farm. 33,600 birds are due to be culled.

·        
South Africa reported an outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N2 bird flu on a farm in the eastern part of the country.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

Updated
11/10/22

December
corn is seen in a $6.40-$6.75 range. March $6.50-$7.50 range.

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans traded lower on increasing Covid-19 concerns, correction in soybean oil share after December position hit 49 percent late last week (went out at 48.44% today), and higher USD. Palm oil weighted on SBO. Product spreading
limited losses in nearby meal. Increasing cases of Covid in China is causing concerns over demand. China quarantines were cut by two days to eight days last week, but many other rules were left unchanged. Soybean oil was down 61-69 points. WTU traded sharply
lower.

·        
China said they will continue fine-tuning covid measures. They may relax on more rules by mid-2023.

·        
CIF meal was unchanged for the offer and down $15 for the bid.  +15 / +40 Z

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of November 10, 2022, were 1,857,872 tons, below a range of trade expectations, below 2,606,157 tons previous week and compares to 2,434,312 tons year ago. Major countries included China for
1,274,571 tons, Mexico for 135,270 tons, and Taiwan for 92,758 tons.

·        
The Rosario Grains Exchange reported Argentina soybean plantings at 24 percent complete versus 80 percent year ago. Plantings are expected to speed up after rain occurred last week.

·        
India’s palm oil imports in 2021-22 fell 4.8% due to restriction of palm oil shipments from Indonesia during the marketing year. Palm oil imports fell to 7.9 million tons from 8.3 million tons a year earlier.

•            
Palm oil imports fell to 886,594 tons from 1.17m tons in September

•            
Soybean oil imports rose to 334,467 tons from 261,815 tons in September

•            
Sunflower oil imports fell to 144,934 tons from 159,810 tons in September (BB)

 

 

Export
Developments

·        
China plans to auction off 500,000 tons of soybeans from reserves on November 25.

 

 

Export
Developments

·        
China auctioning off about 141,000 tons of soybeans form auction out of 500,000 tons offered.

·        
China plans to auction off 500,000 tons of soybeans from reserves on November 25.

 

Updated
11/8/22

Soybeans
– January $13.50-$15.00

Soybean
meal – December $400-$435, January $400-$475

Soybean
oil – December 73-77, January wide 67.00-76.00 range

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures ended higher. Chicago saw a two-sided trade. That market turned higher after fund selling dried. A higher USD limited gains. Global import developments have been running strong over the past week with latest Iraq
picking up 200,000 tons of US wheat and Saudi Arabia picking up a more than expected million tons of mostly Black Sea and EU wheat.

·        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of November 10, 2022 were 76,408 tons, below a range of trade expectations, below 181,989 tons previous week and compares to 400,219 tons year ago. Major countries included Philippines for
40,380 tons, Mexico for 22,252 tons, and Colombia for 12,650 tons.

·        
Egypt said they have enough wheat reserves to last for 5 months and vegetable oils for 4.8 months.

·        
Paris December wheat was down 4.00 euros at 324 euros a ton.

·        
French farmers have nearly completed sowing soft wheat and winter barley for next year’s production. 92 percent of the French wheat crop was sown as of November 7. Durum wheat sowing was 50% complete, against 36% a year earlier
(Reuters).

·        
India state wheat stocks as of November 1 were 21 million tons were 21 million tons, down sharply from 42 million tons year ago. The target is for 20.5 million tons for December 31, 2022.

·        
IKAR reported Russia 12.5% protein wheat prices rose $5.50/ton last week to $317.50/ton for December loading. Farmers have already planted winter grains on 17.5 million hectares, compared with 18.2 million hectares around the
same date a year ago (Reuters).

 

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Iraq bought 200,000 tons of US wheat. No prices or delivery timeframe was provided.

·        
Saudi Arabia bought a more than expected amount of wheat (595,000 tons sought). They abought 1.009 million tons of wheat at an average price of $382.56/ton for April-June arrival. EU and Black Sea was thought to be main origin.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of hard milling wheat set to close November 15 for March/April shipment.

·        
Jordan is back in for 120,000 tons of barley for March/April shipment on November 16 for March/April shipment.

·        
Japan in a SBS import tender seeks 70,000 tons of wheat and 40,000 tons of barley on November 16 for arrival by February 24.

 

Rice/Other

·        
(Reuters) – Thailand rice exports were up 39.1% in the first nine months of this year, compared to the same period a year earlier, the Agriculture Ministry said on Monday. Thai rice exported reached 5.41 million tons in the January
to September period this year, it said in a statement said.

 

Updated
11/9/22

Chicago
– December $7.75-$8.75, March $8.00 to $10.00

KC
– December $9.00-$10.15, March 8.50-$10.50

MN
– December $9.00-$10.30, March $9.00 to $10.50