FI Evening Grain Comments 11/17/22

PDF attached does not include daily estimate of funds

 

Calls
steady for agriculture futures

 

USD
was down about 77 points as of 2:18 pm CT, WTI crude oil was 63 cents lower and US equities higher. CBOT soybeans were lower, meal mixed, and soybean oil higher. Corn and Chicago wheat were lower. KC and MN wheat were lower. China denied it was considering
easing its zero-COVID policy. China on Sunday reported its highest number of new COVID-19 infections in six months. Egypt cancelled their import tender for wheat. US crop progress was near expectations.

 

USDA
released 2023 budget projections.  https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity-markets/baseline

 

 

 

 

Weather

Much
of Brazil and Paraguay remained dry and Brazil saw good planting progress during the weekend, with rain noted in a few central, northern, and southern areas. Paraguay is done with soybean plantings. Argentina remained mostly dry during the weekend and dry
weather and “good planting progress will be most common through the next two weeks with showers in the southwest Wednesday into Thursday and nearly widespread rain Friday into Sunday important for many western, central, and northern areas,” according to World
Weather Inc. The US weather forecast for the Great Plains turned slightly negative. Parts of OK and TX will see rain through Tuesday. The upper Midwest will see rain over the next 7 days.

 

 

 

 

World
Weather, INC.

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER FOR THE COMING WEEK

• South
  America temperatures during the next two weeks
• Argentina
  will be warmer than usual this week as will Mato Grosso to Goias, Brazil
• Near
  to above normal temperatures are likely Nov. 12-17 (6- to 10-day period) except in interior southern Brazil and southwestern Argentina where normal to slightly below normal temperatures are likely
• Week
  two temperatures will be a little warmer than usual in Argentina and seasonable in Brazil with near to above normal temperatures from Mato Grosso to Tocantins and Goias and a little cooler biased in southern parts of the nation
• South
  America weather was dry biased during the weekend and more of the same was expected through Wednesday of this week
  
• Minas
  Gerais into Tocantins will experience scattered showers and thunderstorms early this week with 0.20 to 0.75 inch and a few 1.00 to 2.00-inch amounts while rainfall elsewhere is minimal
• Southwestern
  Argentina will receive a trace to 0.35 inch of rain during mid-week
• South
  America weather late this week through early next week will trend wetter
• Argentina
  is expecting 0.50 to 2.00 inches of rain from Cordoba and La Pampa into western and central Buenos Aires while 0.10 to 0.75 inch occurs elsewhere in the nation.
  
• Driest
  in eastern Argentina
• Rainfall
  in Rio Grande do Sul, Uruguay, eastern Buenos Aires and parts of Entre Rios will receive 0.20 to 0.80 inch with a few amounts to 1.50 inches will be possible
  
• One
  to three inches of additional rain will fall from Minas Gerais to Tocantins and from Paraguay and many other areas in Brazil
• One
  to three inches of rain will also impact Paraguay, Mato Grosso do Sul and western Parana with a few totals to 4.00 inches
  
• Northeastern
  Brazil will be driest; including eastern Bahia and Piaui
• Subtropical
  storm Nicole evolved overnight and was 520 miles east of the northern Bahamas at 0700 EST today
  
• This
  system could reach the northern Bahamas Wednesday and the lower east coast of Florida Thursday
• The
  system may reach the Florida coast between North Palm Beach and Fort Pierce and then move near to Tampa, Florida later in the day Thursday and then possibly across northern parts of the Florida Peninsula late Thursday and Friday before moving through southeastern
  Georgia and into South Carolina late Friday into Saturday
• Rainfall
  of 2.00 to 6.00 inches and locally more will be possible
• Wind
  speeds will likely be in the tropical storm force range during much of its time interacting with land
• There
  is a chance this system could become a hurricane, but confidence is low
• U.S.
  Midwest weekend precipitation was greatest from eastern Kansas and Missouri to Wisconsin  and western Illinois
• The
  U.S. Delta was included in the rain
• Greatest
  amounts occurred from northeastern Kansas across the southeastern half of Iowa to far northwestern Illinois and central and southern Wisconsin where 1.00 to 3.3.28 inches resulted
  
• This
  was the second weekend in a row in which rain fell in this corridor and soil moisture is improving along with runoff into the lower Missouri and a part of the Mississippi River basin
• Water
  level improvements are expected, although the change will be small and more rain will be needed to make a sustainable difference for barge traffic
• U.S.
  eastern Midwest and southeastern states were drier biased during the weekend along with most of the western and northern Plains and upper Midwest
• Some
  light precipitation occurred in the Texas Panhandle and southwestern Kansas, but the change in soil moisture was low with few areas getting as much as 0.31 inch of moisture
  
• Heavy
  coastal rain fell in Washington during the weekend with lighter rain in western Oregon and northwestern California
• Over
  8.00 inches of moisture was recorded at Stampede Pass, Washington
• Significant
  moisture also occurred in northeastern Oregon, eastern Washington and the mountains of Idaho, Montana and northwestern Wyoming
  
• The
  central Valleys of Washington and Oregon did not get much precipitation nor did the remainder of the western United States.
  
• Snow
  cover became more widespread across Canada’s Prairies during the weekend except near the U.S. border
• The
  snow will protect winter crops and add some potential soil moisture for use in the spring
• No
  change in soil moisture is likely until the snow melts
• Canada’s
  snow in the eastern Prairies will end this morning while a new storm evolves in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and western Canada that will march across the Prairies today and Tuesday producing additional light snow
• This
  system will not impact much of the U.S. northern Plains
• Ontario
  and Quebec, Canada weather will be mostly good for advancing corn and soybean harvesting and winter crop planting during this workweek
• Precipitation
  days will be limited and moisture totals should be light
• A
  boost in precipitation is likely Nov. 11-12 with some cooling and showery weather likely thereafter
  
• Late
  week U.S. storm in the northern Plains and upper Midwest will produce rain and snow changing to all snow Wednesday into Friday
• Moisture
  totals from the eastern Dakotas to upper Michigan and western and southern Ontario will vary from 0.75 to 2.00 inches with a few totals of 2.00 to 3.00 inches
  
• Snowfall
  could vary from 8 to 16 inches from all of the Dakotas to northern Minnesota with a few totals of 20 inches or more
• Some
  of this snowfall may be overdone and there may be some reduction in this event later this week
  
• Snowfall
  in the western Dakotas and Minnesota will vary from 2 to 6 inches with a few amounts to 8 inches – this snowfall may also be reduced in future model runs
• Moisture
  totals in Montana and the western Dakotas will vary from 0.10 to 0.75 inch
• California’s
  Sierra Nevada began receiving rain and snow during the weekend and the precipitation will continue through Tuesday
  
• Moisture
  totals will vary from 1.00 to 3.00 inches with heavy snowfall of up to 2 feet possible in the highest elevated areas
• Most
  of the precipitation will occur as rain
• U.S.
  central and southwestern Plains, the southwestern desert region  and portions of the central Midwest will receive limited precipitation over the next ten days
  
• Moisture
  totals will vary from trace amounts to 0.50 inch with many areas getting less than 0.20 inch
• U.S.
  southeastern Plains, Delta and southeastern states’ rainfall is possible early to mid-week next week with 0.30 to 1.00 inch and local totals of 1.00 to 2.00 inches
  
• Confidence
  in this forecast is low
• U.S.
  weather next week will include a mid-week storm system in the east-central Plains and western Midwest that will shift to the east while weakening
  
• There
  may be a follow up system impacting the Delta and interior southeastern states late next week, but resulting moisture should be light
• North
  America temperatures will be bitter cold this workweek in western Canada, the northern U.S. Plains and the Pacific Northwest with cooler than usual conditions in California and the Great Basin as well
• Warmer
  than usual conditions are likely in the Midwest, southern Plains, Delta and Atlantic Coast states including all of the southeastern U.S.
  
• 6-
  to 10-day weather (Nov 12-17) will be colder than usual in the Great Plains Midwest, Delta, Canada Prairies and the U.S. Pacific Northwest
  
• Week
  two weather will be colder than usual in the Plains, Midwest and eastern U.S. as well as Canada’s Prairies and much of eastern Canada
• Week
  two weather will be drier than usual in most of the nation, although Florida will be a little wetter biased
  
• Europe
  and western CIS temperatures will be warmer than usual over the next two weeks, although portions of Russia will turn colder next week, but it will likely be in the New Lands more than areas to the west
• Restricted
  precipitation is expected across Europe and western Asia during the next ten days to two weeks
• Totally
  dry weather is unlikely, but the precipitation that falls should be light
• Snow
  cover will remain restricted in western Asia through much of the forecast period, although a little snow will accumulate in the New Lands over time next week when temperatures are colder
• China
  temperatures will be warmer than usual over the next ten days
• China
  precipitation Tuesday into Friday of this week will be greatest in the Yellow River Basin and north China Plain
• This
  event will produce 0.15 to 0.65 inch of moisture with a few 1.00 to 2.00-inch amounts in a part of winter wheat country
  
• Winter
  crops will become better established because of this precipitation
• Some
  of this rain will reach the northern Yangtze River Basin this weekend with moisture totals of 0.10 to 0.75 inch
  
• Some
  moisture “may” reach the heart of rapeseed country in the Yangtze River Basin late next week and into the following weekend, but confidence is low
• Interior
  southeastern China will be drier than usual for another ten days to two weeks which is classic for La Nina and confidence is high for dry biased conditions in this region
• Waves
  of rain are still expected in far southern India over the next ten days to two week keeping the ground abundantly wet
• Rainfall
  will vary from 3.00 to 6.00 inches and local totals over 8.00 inches
• Wettest
  along the lower east coast.
• Weekend
  precipitation in southern India was mostly quite light
• Most
  other areas in the nation were dry except in far north where a few areas of rain occurred in Kashmir and Jammu and a part of Himachal Pradesh
• Good
  drying conditions elsewhere favored summer crop harvesting and winter crop planting
• Indonesia,
  Malaysia, Philippines, southern Vietnam, southern Cambodia and southern Thailand will be wet over the next ten days to two weeks
  
• Some
  areas of local flooding are likely periodically
• Australia
  weekend precipitation was limited, and net drying occurred in many areas
• The
  change was welcome and great for allowing runoff to continue from recent weeks of excessive rain
• Some
  of the higher and better draining ground likely had a chance to dry down for a while
• Flood
  water began to recede, but river flooding may continue for a while longer
• Australia
  rainfall will be limited this workweek
• Net
  drying will continue favoring winter crop maturation in northern and some central areas as well as the harvest in northern areas
• Rain
  will resume in eastern Australia this weekend, but it should not be excessively great
• Fieldwork
  will be disrupted, but amounts of 0.65 to 2.00 inches should not create new flooding
• A
  return of restricted precipitation is expected next week
• Western
  Australia will turn colder than usual late this week and into the weekend before the cool air spreads east during the late weekend and next week
  
• Temperatures
  this week will be near normal in the far east and a little warmer than usual in south-central parts of the nation
• Western
  Australia winter crops are still well on their way to yielding very well with high quality as well.
  
• South
  Africa received rain during the weekend and more will fall periodically over the next two weeks
• Summer
  crop planting will advance around the moisture
• Some
  delay to farming activity will occur periodically, but progress will be made slowly
• Good
  harvest weather is expected for wheat and canola in the western part of the nation where rainfall is expected to be very limited over the next two weeks
• Temperatures
  will be seasonable
• Mexico’s
  seasonal rains have largely diminished for the season and good crop maturation and harvest weather is expected into next week
• Some
  rain will fall lightly in the southeast periodically in the coming week to ten days
  
• Central
  America precipitation is expected to continue periodically during the next ten days, but no large region of excessive rain is expected this week
• Some
  increase in rainfall may occur next week
• West-central
  Africa rainfall will occur periodically enough to support southern coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and other crops during the next couple of weeks
• The
  precipitation will be greatest near the coast
• East-central
  Africa rainfall will be sufficient to support coffee and cocoa as well as a few other crops
• Rain
  will fall in portions of Ethiopia, Tanzania and Uganda
• Today’s
  Southern Oscillation Index was +12.87 and it will move lower over the next few days

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Nov. 7:

• China’s
  first batch of October trade data, including soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat imports
• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• US
  crop harvesting for corn, soy, cotton; winter wheat plantation and condition, 4pm
• Vietnam’s
  customs dept releases Oct. coffee, rice and rubber export data

Tuesday,
Nov. 8:

• France’s
  agriculture ministry updates 2022 crop production estimates
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• HOLIDAY:
  India

Wednesday,
Nov. 9:

• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, 12pm
• France
  AgriMer monthly grains outlook
• China’s
  agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly report on supply and demand for corn and soybeans
• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Brazil’s
  Conab issues production, area and yield data for corn and soybeans

Thursday,
Nov. 10:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board’s data on stockpiles, production and exports
• Malaysia’s
  Nov. 1-10 palm oil export data
• Cane
  crush and sugar production data by Brazil’s Unica

Friday,
Nov. 11:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• DELAYED:
  CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, usually released Fridays, will be published Monday, Nov. 14
• New
  Zealand Food Prices
• HOLIDAY:
  US, France, Canada

Saturday,
Nov. 12:

• Atlantic
  Council Global Food Security Forum, Bali, day 1

Sunday,
Nov 13:

• Atlantic
  Council Global Food Security Forum, Bali, day 2

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Due
out November 9

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range

Wheat                 
180,991                 versus   200000-450000  range

Corn                     
231,458                 versus   300000-600000  range

Soybeans           
2,591,127             versus   1500000-2500000             range

 

 

 

GRAINS
INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

                 
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING NOV 03, 2022

                           
— METRIC TONS —

————————————————————————–

                                                  
CURRENT     PREVIOUS 

             ———–
WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

 
GRAIN      11/03/2022  10/27/2022  11/04/2021    TO DATE     TO DATE  

 

BARLEY             
0           0           0        1,561        9,743 

CORN         
231,458     445,693     659,901    4,447,613    6,134,187 

FLAXSEED           
0           0           0          100           24 

MIXED        
      0           0           0            0            0 

OATS               
0           0           0        6,486          300 

RYE                
0           0           0            0            0 

SORGHUM        
4,671      72,154       7,698      217,940      504,194 

SOYBEANS   
2,591,127   2,586,228   2,911,863   12,812,726   14,190,547 

SUNFLOWER          
0         384           0        2,064          432 

WHEAT        
180,991     137,082     252,040    9,828,111    9,920,116 

Total      
3,008,247   3,241,541   3,831,502   27,316,601   30,759,543 

————————————————————————–

CROP
MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED; 
SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES
WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

 

Macros

107
Counterparties Take $2.241 Tln At Fed Reverse Repo Op(prev $2.231Tln, 108 Bids)

US
Consumer Credit (USD) Sep: 24.976B (est 30.000B; prev R 30.185B)

 

 

Corn

·        
Corn prices were lower following wheat and lack of fresh news. The USD was lower and limited losses for corn futures.

·        
China on Sunday reported its highest number of new COVID-19 infections in six months.

·        
USDA Baseline: Corn 1712 million bushels for 2023-22 US ending stocks.

 

Export
developments.

None
reported

 

Updated
11/3/22

December
corn is seen in a $6.60-$7.15 range. March $6.50-$7.50 range.

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans, meal and soybean oil were mixed, with soybeans and December meal lower and soybean oil lower (started higher) in the nearby positions. Argentina’s soybean planting pace remains slow. Nearby soybean oil is gaining
on December meal. Malaysian palm oil was up 1.7% on Monday.

·        
China denied it was considering easing its zero-COVID policy. China on Sunday reported its highest number of new COVID-19 infections in six months.

·        
Trading was very slow for both cash and futures.

·        
US interior soybean meal basis was unchanged to down on Monday and Gulf soybean basis lower.

·        
A majority of the US will turn colder (below normal) for the second week of the forecast.

·        
USDA Baseline: 226 million bushels for 2023-22 US ending stocks.

https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity-markets/baseline

·        
China’s soybean imports in October fell 19% to 4.14 million tons from a year earlier. Jan-oct soybean imports stand at 73.18 million tons, down 7.4 percent from year earlier.

·        
CBOT deliveries (Friday) for November soybeans were zero. Malaysia January palm oil futures was up 66 Ringgit to 4,433 and cash was up $10.00/ton to $1002.50/ton.

·        
Indonesia looks to import 350,000 tons of soybeans but details are lacking. They are currently in negotiations for 50,000 tons.

·        
French oilseed technical institute Terres Inovia estimated France’s sunflower harvest will fall to around 1.7 million tons due to dry summer weather, down from 1.83 million tons estimated by the AgMin last month.

·        
A poll for October Malaysia palm oil stocks calls for a 9.3% increase from September to 2.53 million tons and production to increase 3 percent to 1.82 million. Trade estimates are above.

 

Export
Developments

·        
China plans to auction off 500,000 tons of soybeans from reserves on November 11.

 

Updated
11/03/22

Soybeans
– January $13.50-$15.00

Soybean
meal – December $390-$430, January $400-$475

Soybean
oil – December 72-77, January wide 64.00-74.00 range

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures traded tow-sided, with Chicago ending lower and KC and MN higher. Light technical selling kicked off the day and losses are limited from a pickup in global import tenders and a sharply lower USD. Egypt was in
for wheat, but they cancelled. They also see wheat reserves sufficient for five months.

·        
USDA Baseline: 663 million bushels for 2023-22 US ending stocks.

·        
Several traders noted rumors of the Black Sea agreement getting extended. We saw little change and/or light news for the Black Sea region since Friday.

·        
Turkey is pushing for the Black Sea grain deal to be extended a year out. It’s set to expire November 19.

·        
We look for a 3-point increase for US winter wheat conditions as more and more states north and east of the problem states of TX, OK and KS get more accurate readings. Rain over the last seven days across KS, TX, and OK should
have also aided crop development.

·        
USDA reported several public county disaster relief programs for many states scattered across the US that sought relief from ongoing drought.

·        
Parts of the US Great Plains will see some rain but much more is needed for early winter wheat crop developments ahead of winter dormancy.  OK, KS and TX, where the bulk of the wheat is grown, remain problem states.

·        
EU Paris wheat hit a 10-week low, trading down 1 percent at 336.00 euros per ton ($336.74/ton).

·        
SovEcon estimated Russia 2022-23 wheat exports at 43.7 million tons, up 300,000 tons from its previous forecast.

·        
Russia’s government bought 46,800 tons of grain for strategic reserves and since August 1, the state purchased 1.420 million tons.

·        
Russia is mobilizing 50,000 Russian troops for their special operation in Ukraine.

·        
Russian wheat prices stabilized last week after the grain deal with IKAR reporting 12.5% protein content from Black Sea ports at $312 a ton free on board (FOB),

·        
Ukraine exported nearly 14.3 million tons of grain so far in the 2022-23 season, down 30.7% from the 20.6 million tons previous season.

·        
(Bloomberg) — Ukraine’s corn harvest is currently down 72% from a year ago because of adverse weather and disruptions caused by the Russian invasion, according to Agriculture Ministry data published on Facebook.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Egypt was in for wheat and Russia is the lowest offer at $369.95/ton C&F (previous Romania $356.45/ton FOB) for LH Dec/FH Jan shipment. They ended up cancelling.

·        
Iraq seeks 50,000 tons of US wheat. Details are lacking.

·        
(Reuters) – China sold 40,476 tons of wheat, or 100% of the total offer, at an auction of its state reserves on Nov. 2, the National Grain Trade Center said on Monday. The average selling price of the wheat from the 2014, 2015
and 2016 crops was 2,865 yuan ($398.88) per ton.

·        
Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of wheat on November 8, valid until November 9, for Dec 1-31 shipment.

·        
Jordan issued an import tender for 120,000 tons of hard milling wheat set to close November 15 for March/April shipment.

·        
Jordan is back in for 120,000 tons of barley for March/April shipment on November 16 for March/April shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Vietnam October rice exports were 713,546 tons, up 22.3 percent from September.

·        
(Reuters) – India on Saturday approved the 2022/23 export of 6 million tons of sugar, in line with market expectations for the year’s first tranche.

 

Updated
11/3/22

Chicago
– December $8.00-$9.00, March $8.00 to $10.00

KC
– December $9.00-$10.25, March 8.50-$10.50

MN
– December $9.00-$10.30, March $9.00 to $10.50