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CANADIAN
PACIFIC RAILWAY CP.TO ESTIMATES IT WILL RESTORE B.C. SERVICE SEVERED BY FLOODS BY MID-WEEK – STATEMENT – Reuters News
Weather
World
Weather Inc.
MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER AROUND THE WORLD
- U.S.
Southern Plains are still advertised to be wet Wednesday into Saturday of next week - This
impacts Texas and central Oklahoma with very little to no rain in the Texas Panhandle or most of hard red winter wheat country away from central Oklahoma - Some
of the rain is overdone on the GFS model run this morning - Areas
from the Texas Blacklands and surrounding areas will be wettest - The
moisture in Texas will be welcome for soil moisture replenishment for 2022 crops - U.S.
hard red winter wheat areas will get a little rain in the far southeast part of the production region late next week, but the bulk of the production region will be left dry for the next ten days and perhaps longer - U.S.
Delta, Tennessee River Basin and lower and eastern portions of the Midwest will be impacted by waves of rain during the next ten days resulting in further delays to late season harvest progress - Some
cotton quality declines are expected, and fieldwork will continue advance slower than usual because of the precipitation - U.S.
Southeastern states will not receive high volumes of rain anytime soon and late season harvest progress should advance relatively well around what few showers impact the region - U.S.
northern and west-central Plains will receive restricted amounts of precipitation during the next ten days to two weeks leaving many areas from Montana into western Kansas and eastern Colorado with a drier bias - Central
Canada’s Prairies are expecting very little precipitation for a while, but totally dry weather is not likely - Ontario
and Quebec, Canada have received rain and snow this week and additional precipitation is expected this weekend and early next week slowing field progress - California
and the southwestern desert region of the United States are not likely to get enough precipitation to make much difference to soil moisture, water supply or crop conditions - Argentina’s
best rain potential key summer grain and oilseed areas in the central and south will be Wednesday and Thursday of next week - Some
of the advertised rainfall may be a little overdone this morning, but any moisture of significance will be welcome after net drying between now and then - A
follow up rain event is possible late in the following weekend - Northern
Argentina may be driest until the week of Nov. 18 when rain will fall more significantly - Argentina
temperatures will trend a little warmer than usual over the coming five days and that will accelerate drying across the nation - Brazil
crop weather will remain mostly very good during the next week to ten days - Keep
an eye on Rio Grande do Sul where restricted rainfall is expected during much of that forecast period - Coffee,
citrus and sugarcane conditions will remain largely very good as time moves along - Soybeans
and corn are developing quite favorably with little change likely - Australia’s
eastern New South Wales will receive rain this weekend especially near the western slopes of the Great Dividing Range, but more rain is expected Wednesday and Thursday of next week - The
rain events will induce a disruption to harvest progress and adds a little worry to the quality of unharvested crops - There
has already been a small grain quality decrease in Queensland and northern New South Wales this season - Most
other crop areas in Australia are unlikely to suffer from too much rain in the coming week to ten days and moisture will be great for summer crops - Southern
India continues to get frequent rain and there is an expanding region of excessive moisture - Flood
potentials will likely rise during the next week to ten days as rain frequency stays high - Cotton,
rice and sugarcane quality declines are already suspected in a few areas and more of the same is expected through the next full week especially from Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu into Andhra Pradesh and a part of southern Telangana
- Interior
southern India received moderate to heavy rainfall Thursday with amounts of 2.00 to 5.55 inches resulting - Areas
from southern Andhra Pradesh into northeastern Tamil Nadu and neighboring areas of southeastern Karnataka were wettest - These
same areas had reported 7.00 to more than 18.00 inches of rain for the month prior to Thursday’s moisture - Flooding
and crop quality concerns continue to be a concern - West-central
India received some rain Thursday and more will fall into the weekend - The
areas impacted Thursday were mostly in southern Rajasthan where up 1.57 inches resulted - Additional
rain into the weekend will impact Gujarat, northern Maharashtra, western Madhya Pradesh and southern Rajasthan.
- The
rain is not likely to be persistent or heavy enough to induce a serious threat to crop conditions, but fieldwork will be stalled briefly and worry will rise for many producers - Cotton
is most at risk of a quality change, but as along as drier weather returns during the weekend and lasts through next week as expected the impact should be low - The
moisture will be good for future winter crop planting and for the establishment of previously sown crops - China
will experience another late week weekend snowstorm in Heilongjiang and Jilin as cold air pushes into the east-central and northeastern parts of the nation - Snowfall
of several inches is expected causing travel delays Sunday through Tuesday - Blizzard
or near blizzard conditions will occur disrupting travel and commerce - Winter
crops in the north are unlikely to be negatively impacted by colder weather this weekend into early next week, although new crop development will be slowed and some crops may be pushed into semi-dormancy - China’s
rapeseed planting and establishment will continue advance in east-central China under favorable weather and field conditions - Much
of southeastern Asia will see alternating periods of rain and sunshine - This
will impact Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia - Some
net drying is expected in Sumatra, Indonesia, but soil moisture is abundant there today and a little drying might be welcome - Coastal
areas of Vietnam and east coastal areas of Luzon Island Philippines will receive heavy rain from a strengthening northeast monsoon - Local
flooding will be possible - South
Africa summer crop areas will receive waves of rain over the next two weeks
- The
moisture will be welcome and should improve grain, oilseed and cotton planting prospects
- Many
areas in the nation area little too dry for optimum crop development - The
coming rainfall should greatly improve topsoil moisture - Parts
of Morocco will receive scattered showers into the weekend, but resulting rainfall will be sporadic and mostly too light to seriously change topsoil moisture or water supply - Drought
has been prevailing for a few years and substantial rain is needed to improve water supply and soil moisture enough to support winter crop planting - Some
follow up showers may occur late next week, but greater rain will still be needed - Northern
Algeria and coastal areas of Tunisia have the greatest soil moisture in all of northern Africa
- Winter
crop planting conditions will be best in these areas, but more rain is needed farther inland and that is not likely to occur for a while - West-central
Africa rainfall has been and will continue be sporadic and light along near the coast from Ivory Coast to Cameroon and Nigeria over the next two weeks while interior crop areas are seasonably dry - Temperatures
will be cooler than usual in coastal areas due to frequent showers while warmer than usual in the drier interior crop areas - Cotton
will benefit from the dry and warm bias speeding along crop maturation and supporting some early harvesting - Coffee,
cocoa, rice and sugarcane will benefit from periodic rain, but will be looking for drier weather later this month and next - East-central
Africa weather will be favorably mixed for a while supporting coffee, rice, cocoa and a host of tropical crops - Ethiopia
may dry out a little more than desired and a close watch on the region may be warranted for a while - Parts
of Spain may get some welcome rain this weekend into early next week The moisture will be welcome for winter crop planting and for moistening the topsoil after a long dry season - The
remainder of Europe will experience a mostly tranquil weather pattern with infrequent precipitation of light intensity through the weekend, but starting next week and continuing into late month temperatures are expected to trend colder and periods of rain
and some snow will begin to fall in a few areas - Winter
crop planting should be winding down in many areas with eastern parts of the continent cool enough for crops to be semi-dormant - Western
parts of Russia, the Baltic States, Belarus and a few neighboring areas will experience some gradual increase in snow cover during the next ten days - Precipitation
in Ukraine is expected to be limited for a while and amounts in Russia’s Volga Basin should be light for a while.
- Central
America rainfall will be erratic over the next two weeks with the greatest rain expected in Guatemala - Colombia,
northern Peru and Ecuador rainfall is expected to be light to moderate over the next week to ten days - Coffee,
sugarcane, corn and a host of other crops will benefit from the moisture after recent drying - Today’s
Southern Oscillational Index was +6.19 and it was expected to move erratically higher over the coming week - New
Zealand rainfall is expected to be near to below normal over the next week to ten days
- Temperatures
will be near normal
Friday,
Nov. 19:
- ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London) - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm - U.S.
cattle on feed, 3pm - FranceAgriMer
weekly update on crop conditions - HOLIDAY:
India
Saturday,
Nov. 20:
- China’s
third batch of October trade data, including soy, corn and pork imports by country
Monday,
Nov. 22:
- Monthly
MARS bulletin on crop conditions in Europe - USDA
export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am - U.S.
winter wheat condition, cotton harvest data, 4pm - Ivory
Coast cocoa arrivals - Malaysia’s
Nov. 1-20 palm oil exports - U.S.
cold storage data — pork, beef and poultry, 3pm - HOLIDAY:
Argentina
Tuesday,
Nov. 23:
- EU
weekly grain, oilseed import and export data - Brazil’s
Conab releases sugar and cane production data (tentative) - Council
of Palm Oil Producing Countries online webinar - U.S.
poultry slaughter, 3pm - HOLIDAY:
Japan
Wednesday,
Nov. 24:
- EIA
weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production - USDA
red meat production, 3pm
Thursday,
Nov. 25:
- Malaysia’s
Nov. 1-25 palm oil exports - Port
of Rouen data on French grain exports - HOLIDAY:
U.S.
Friday,
Nov. 26:
- ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London) - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm - USDA
weekly net- export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am - FranceAgriMer
weekly update on crop conditions
Source:
Bloomberg and FI
The
CFTC Commitment of Trader report showed no major surprises this week as the traditional net positions came in near trade expectations. The net long position for corn of nearly 400,000 contracts was roughly 150,000 below record long and after today, stands
at around 343,000 contracts. The soybean meal traditional net long fund position is around 44,000 contracts. Around mid-October funds were net short meal.
SUPPLEMENTAL
Non-Comm Indexes Comm
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn
250,399 18,303 409,407 3,910 -607,947 -21,934
Soybeans
-3,737 12,701 196,671 2,046 -149,448 -10,175
Soyoil
30,280 -3,800 125,581 1,367 -165,393 -599
CBOT
wheat -8,270 10,629 123,644 7,016 -106,928 -14,606
KCBT
wheat 29,267 2,165 61,012 -458 -94,150 -4,395
=================================================================================
FUTURES
+ OPTS Managed Swaps Producer
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn
341,135 21,526 231,339 -2,168 -588,039 -19,474
Soybeans
29,488 17,351 145,419 -3,321 -155,711 -8,949
Soymeal
37,488 28,189 86,940 -1,807 -180,548 -29,959
Soyoil
76,212 3,606 99,313 -1,040 -173,901 730
CBOT
wheat 15,258 11,931 69,991 4,439 -85,245 -14,724
KCBT
wheat 60,560 3,178 30,474 -2,578 -84,231 -1,517
MGEX
wheat 14,963 -1,533 1,164 -31 -33,338 1,019
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total
wheat 90,781 13,576 101,629 1,830 -202,814 -15,222
Live
cattle 52,010 3,937 83,643 -223 -139,926 -2,005
Feeder
cattle -4,551 -726 4,183 291 2,573 191
Lean
hogs 46,872 6,456 59,084 -495 -97,034 -2,878
Other NonReport Open
Net Chg Net Chg Interest Chg
Corn
67,423 395 -51,858 -279 2,075,468 73,356
Soybeans
24,289 -510 -43,487 -4,572 785,185 19,618
Soymeal
26,872 2,401 29,247 1,175 519,884 20,712
Soyoil
-11,157 -6,330 9,533 3,033 495,844 10,988
CBOT
wheat 8,442 1,392 -8,446 -3,038 565,036 41,777
KCBT
wheat -10,674 -1,772 3,871 2,689 273,576 8,616
MGEX
wheat 10,188 222 7,022 323 82,158 -2,284
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total
wheat 7,956 -158 2,447 -26 920,770 48,109
Live
cattle 17,979 -548 -13,705 -1,162 350,878 7,898
Feeder
cattle -282 -310 -1,925 554 49,179 2,247
Lean
hogs 7,289 -3,474 -16,211 391 286,158 -406
=================================================================================
74
Counterparties Take $1.575 Tln At Fed’s Fixed Rate Reverse Repo (prev $1.584 Tln, 74 Bidders)
Canadian
Retail Sales (M/M) Sep: -0.6% (exp -1.7%; prev 2.1%)
–
Retail Sales Ex-Auto (M/M) Sep: -0.2% (exp -1.0%; prev 2.8%)
Canadian
New Housing Price Index Oct: 0.9% (exp 0.5%; prev 0.4%)
·
CBOT corn traded lower in a risk off trade. Slowing US export developments and sharply lower WTI crude oil weighed on prices. The USD was 46 points higher today. WTI January was down about $2.49 around 1:30 pm CT. Nearby corn
was down 1.1% for the week and oats were up 4.2%.
·
On Friday funds sold an estimated net 4,000 corn contracts.
·
US corn basis along major river points firmed on Friday.
·
The increase in Covid-19 lockdown concerns across Europe may weigh on commodity investor sentiment next week, but to a much lesser extent that seen in the past. It did weigh on some US stocks on Friday.
·
Southern Brazil and Argentina will see limited rain over the next week. There is some concern over recently planted first crop corn across Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
·
Safras calls for a 25.7 million ton Brazil summer corn crop, unchanged from their August estimate.
·
France collected 91 percent of their corn crop as of November 15, up from 82% week earlier but 11 days behind a 5-year average.
Export
developments.
·
South Korea’s KFA bought about 64,000 tons of corn at $316.60/ton for arrival around March 10.
Updated
11/15/21
December
corn is seen in a $5.45-$5.90 range
March
corn is seen in a $5.25-$6.25 range
·
Soybeans traded two-sided today, ending mostly 0.50-2.0 cents lower. The low for January found some support as it approached its 50-day MA ($12.5450), but never tested it. US soybean basis was steady to firm on Friday. ECB basis
remains very strong. Producers are reserve sellers in hopes prices continue to appreciate. Extremely high crush margins are allowing crushers to bid up cash prices. Some soybean fields across northern IN, lower MI into OH and PA are still unharvested after
a wet fall season.
·
Lower WTI crude oil weighed on soybean oil with Dec settling off 101. Soybean meal rallied $1.40-$2.80 short ton after the open from ongoing talk of strong US demand and ended higher.
·
Some traders are speculating soybean oil will be delivered late next week. Recall NOPA reported a record soybean oil production for last month.
·
Funds on Friday sold 1,000 soybeans, bought 1,000 meal and sold an estimated 6,000 soybean oil.
·
Nearby soybeans were up 2.4% for the week, meal up 2.7% while soybean oil was down 1.4%.
·
Argentina is on holiday Monday.
·
It will be important to keep an eye on southern Brazil and Argentina’s weather patterns over the next couple of months. La Niña strengthened in the last month. The IRI noted a 97 percent probability of La Nina over the Nov through
January period.
·
China soybean imports from the US during October were 775,331 tons, down 77 percent from 3.4 million tons year ago.
·
China imported 3.3 million tons of Brazilian soybeans in October, down 22% from 4.233 million tons in the previous year. Total October soybean imports were 5.11 million tons, down 41% from a year earlier and lowest level since
March 2020.
·
Britain’s rapeseed area is expected increase 12.9% in 2022 to 345,000 hectares, according to the Britain’s Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board.
·
Malaysia palm futures were up second consecutive week despite closing moderately lower on Friday. It may open higher on Monday.
·
ITS reported Malaysian November palm oil exports up 18.1% from the same period month earlier to 1.130 million tons.
·
AmSpec reported November 1-20 Malaysian palm oil exports up 9 percent to 1.067 million tons from 978,917 tons previous period last month.
·
China crush margins on our analysis was last $2.30/bu ($2.31 previous), compared to $2.66 at the end of last week and compares to $0.89 a year ago.
Export
Developments
- Results
awaited: South Korea is in for 115,000 tons of GMO-free soybeans on November 17 for arrival in South Korea in 2023.
·
Turkey seeks 6,000 tons of sunflower oil on November 23 for December shipment.
Source:
Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture AgriStatistics Canada (STC)
Updated
11/19/21
Soybeans
– January $12.00-$13.00 (down 50) range, March $12.00-$13.50
Soybean
meal – December $350-$395, January $340-$390, March $325-$400
Soybean
oil – December 56.50 (up 90) to
59.50 cent range, January 55.00-60.50, March 56-64
·
Nearby Minneapolis wheat was down 3.9% this week while Chicago was up 0.7% and KC up 0.2.
·
Russia set their wheat export tax at $78.30/ton for the November 24-30 period, up from $77.10/ton Nov 17-23.
·
March Paris wheat was 1.25 euros higher at 297.00. December was up 2.25 at 299.75, a record high. December hit 303.25 euros during the session. Option volume was heavy this week for Paris wheat. 43,476 lots traded on Thursday.
·
Britain’s wheat area is expected to increase in 2022 to 1.81 million hectares or 1.3 from 2021, according to the Britain’s Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board.
·
Ukraine reported 25.9 million tons of grain stocks as of November 1, 5.5 million tons above this time year ago, and includes 11.9 million tons of wheat.
·
Ukraine is 93.3% complete on harvesting at 76.7 million tons, with an average yield of 5.16 tons per hectare. That includes 32.3 million tons of wheat, 9.6 million tons of barley, 31.8 million tons of corn and small volumes of
other grains.
·
Iran imported 4 million tons of wheat since late April, providing relief to their annual supply shortfall. They also secured 4.5 million tons of wheat from local producers.
Source:
Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture AgriStatistics Canada (STC)
Export
Developments.
·
The Philippines bought about 38,000 tons of Australian wheat (for February loading, according to AgriCensus, at around $353.60/ton. We are awaiting results from a second Philippines group in for wheat.
·
Japan’s AgMin in a SBS import tender seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley for arrival by February 24.
·
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on November 24.
·
Bangladesh’s state grains buyer seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat on November 22.
·
Turkey seeks 370,0000 (320,000 previous) tons of feed barley on November 23 for January shipment.
·
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on November 25 for shipment between March 16-31, April 1-15, April 16-30 and May 1-15.
·
Turkey seeks 385,000 tons of wheat on November 25.
·
Iraq seeks 500,000 tons of wheat starting in December for an unknown shipment period.
Rice/Other
·
None reported
Updated
11/15/21
December
Chicago wheat is seen in a $7.80‐$8.40 range, March $7.50-$8.75
December
KC wheat is seen in a $7.90‐$8.75, March $7.50-$8.75
December
MN wheat is seen in a $9.75‐$10.60, March $9.00-$11.50
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
W: 312.604.1366
ICE IM:
treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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