PDF Attached
The
EPA did not release an update on RVO mandates, but in a separate statement the agency did propose expanding the credit trenches of uses of renewable fuel production processes. Under the 24-hour announcement system USDA reported private exporters sold 122,000
tons of soybeans to unknown. Today we see follow though buying in soybeans & corn, and technical selling/positioning in wheat. StatsCan reported a smaller than estimated Canada canola crop, higher than expected wheat, and larger than expected soybean crop.
World
Weather Inc.
WEATHER
EVENTS AND FEATURES TO WATCH
- Latest
La Nina data shows a more gradual weakening trend after the late December early January peak in the event. - Previous
NOAA model runs had La Nina weakening aggressively - Now
La Nina still has some influence into April – if their forecast is correct - World
Weather, Inc. believes there is potential for this La Nina event to linger longer and it would not be surprising to see it last through the spring
- That
is just speculation for now, but similar conditions have occurred in other 22-year solar cycles - The
implication of a longer lasting La Nina in the spring would be greater concern for ongoing dryness in the Plains and a part of the western Corn Belt - Still
just speculation for now - Did
you know the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO)’s original Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDO) fell to its lowest level since 1956 in October of this year - Some
believe strongly negative PDO events that last over multiple months lead to droughts especially when they occur in the summer
- Keep
an eye on this event for 2022 U.S. agricultural weather especially if La Nina stays longer - Strongly-positive-phased
Arctic Oscillation (AO) present in the Northern Hemisphere today is ensuring that no mid-latitude winter agricultural region in the Northern Hemisphere will be subjected to threatening cold for the next ten days and probably not for two weeks - This
is true for the United States, Europe and all of Asia - Canada
and the far northern U.S. Plains will see two days of bitter cold Sunday and Monday, but it will be quick to abate without going any farther to the south - Indian
Ocean Dipole is still in its neutral mode with a slight bias toward negative IOD that leaves its Influence in Australia and India relatively limited - Tropical
Cyclone 05B has evolved in the Bay of Bengal as expected - The
storm move along the upper east coast of India and into southern Bangladesh during the Saturday through Monday Period - Rainfall
of 2.00 to 7.00 inches will result and possibly a little more with peak wind speeds not likely to surpass 60 mph - Damage
potential to crops and personal property are low, but some flooding is expected along with windy conditions - Typhoon
Nyatoh remained between Japan and the Mariana Islands in the western Pacific Ocean posing no threat to land - The
storm will move off to the northeast during the weekend and have little to no influence on the region except some possible shipping rerouting
- Net
drying is still expected in eastern Argentina and southern Brazil as well as neighboring areas of Uruguay and southern Paraguay during the next ten days and perhaps longer - Crop
moisture stress is unlikely in this first week of the outlook due to seasonably to slightly milder than usual temperatures and good subsoil moisture sprinkled with a few showers as well - Crop
stress may begin to show in a few areas during the second week of December, but there will be no threat to production during these two weeks - Rain
will be imperative in the second half of December to protect production of soybeans and early corn as well as rice, cotton and a few other crops produced in the driest region. - Wheat
harvest progress in southern Brazil will advance well during the drier days
- Argentina
wheat development, maturation and harvesting should advance relatively well with the moisture already in the ground and the anticipated drier tendency. - Center
west, northern parts of center south and northeastern Brazil crop weather will continue plenty wet and crop development should advance relatively well during the next two weeks
- A
few areas may be a little too wet, but the impact on crops will not be very great unless this pattern continues into the harvest season – which is possible - South
Africa crop weather will be improving during the next two weeks as more frequent rain evolves and reaches into all of the nation with better coverage - Planting
of summer crops will advance better around the rainfall and early season crop development should advance well - Eastern
Australia is getting a break from rain and it will last through Saturday - Fieldwork
will be slow to improve in parts of Queensland and New South Wales after recent weeks of frequent rain, but some fieldwork is expected soon - The
region is expecting more rain to pop up late in this weekend through most of next week, but it should be more sporadic and variable favoring Queensland more than New South Wales - Resulting
rainfall will not be as heavy or as frequent as that in previous weeks, but any moisture in unharvested wheat, barley and canola areas might be a concern - The
bottom line looks better for eventual field progress for areas that have been most impacted by recent rain – at least for a little while. Summer crop planting and emergence along with early growth should improve for a few days while the wetter areas in Queensland
and New South Wales dry down for a little while. Summer crop development and fieldwork will also improve in Queensland and parts of New South Wales.
- Western
and southern Australia winter crop maturation and harvest weather has been mostly good and improving - These
trends will continue to favor farm progress and no threats of grain or oilseeds quality declines - India
rainfall Thursday was sporadic and light - Most
of the precipitation occurred across the heart of the nation from west-central to northeastern crop areas, but the moisture was sporadic and light having a minimal impact on harvesting or winter crop planting and establishment - Waves
of rain are expected in southwestern British Columbia and western most Washington State including some of the more important ports from the Puget Sound into Vancouver and neighboring areas of British Columbia - Delays
in the loading and shipping of some goods and services may result due to flooding, but the worst of the stormy pattern may be passing - Frequent
rain could still induce some delays - China’s
weather during the next ten days will continue relatively quiet with only brief and light precipitation resulting
- Northern
wheat production areas were trending dormant or semi-dormant and winter crops should be adequately established - Rapeseed
planting should be winding down in the Yangtze River Basin - Soil
moisture is favorably rated for good rapeseed establishment - Western
Russia, Ukraine and much of western and southern Europe will experience an active weather pattern during the next ten days to two weeks - Waves
of rain and some snow will occur through this first week of the Outlook, but in the second week the wettest conditions will occur in Russia, Ukraine, Baltic States and Belarus - Precipitation
totals will be sufficient to bring a boost in soil moisture and runoff - Winter
crops will continue dormant or semi-dormant in much of the European Continent and western Asia, though some warming is expected in eastern parts of this region - Western
Russia and eastern Europe will trend colder next week and into the following weekend, although no bitter cold conditions are expected - Middle
East weather is a little dry from Syria, Iraq and Jordan to Iran while portions of Turkey have favorable soil moisture.
- Eastern
parts of the Middle East may experience additional drying for a while - Northern
Iraq and Iran are advertised to be wetter in the Dec. 10-16 period, although confidence is a little low - Western
Turkey will be wettest - North
Africa rainfall is expected to occur periodically during the next ten days, but southwestern Morocco will be missed by significant rain - Coastal
areas of central and eastern Algeria will be wettest - West-central
Africa rainfall during the next ten days will be greatest in coastal areas leaving most interior coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and cotton production areas in a favorable maturation and harvest environment
- U.S.
Hard red winter wheat production areas will not likely get significant precipitation through next Thursday - Any
showers that evolve are not likely to have an impact on soil or crop conditions - Dryness
will prevail - Dec.
10-16 will bring at least one opportunity for snow and rain in portions of wheat country that may be followed by a short term bout of colder weather - Southeastern
crop areas in the wheat belt and a few areas in Colorado, far western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas may be favored for the precipitation
- U.S.
precipitation in the coming ten days will be greatest from eastern Texas and the Delta into the lower and eastern most Midwest
- The
greatest rain this week will be from eastern Texas and the Delta through the Tennessee River Basin to the lower eastern Midwest Sunday into Monday and again during mid- to late-week next week
- Some
areas will end up with 1.00 to 2.50 inches of rain by late next week with this week’s precipitation lightest and most sporadic - Heavier
rain has been advertised in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin where some flooding might occur - Rain
totals in these areas may range from 2.00 to 4.00 inches with some forecast models suggesting more than 6.00 inches - A
few showers will also occur in the southeastern states, but the region southeast of the Appalachian Mountains will experience net drying through Wednesday and then get some moisture late next week - Brief
periods of light snow and rain will impact the northern Plains with greater precipitation in along the Canada border especially this weekend when 3-8 inches and locally more accumulate - Northern
North Dakota, northern Minnesota, far southern Manitoba and extreme southern Saskatchewan will be most impacted along with southern Alberta - Stormy
weather in the Pacific Northwest will continue to include heavy rain in coastal British Columbia, the Cascade Mountains of western Washington and western Oregon as well as the mountains of northern Idaho and immediate neighboring areas
- Flooding
in southwestern British Columbia and western Washington may continue to impact transportation and more delays in shipping are expected - Daily
rainfall will not be as great as it has been - West
Texas will be mostly dry as will southern California crop areas - Southeastern
Canada’s grain and oilseed areas will experienced alternating periods of rain and snow maintaining a slow finish to late season fieldwork at times - the
moisture will maintain favorable conditions for wheat use in the spring - The
bottom line for the United States and southern Canada will change little over the next ten days. Dry conditions in hard red winter wheat areas may be a concern, but crops will stay in favorable condition until spring due to winter dormancy or semi-dormancy.
The exception to that will be from the Texas Panhandle to Colorado and extreme western Kansas as well as Montana where conditions are driest. There is also concern for unirrigated wheat in Oregon. Late season summer crop harvesting is winding down in the Midwest,
Delta and southeastern Canada (Ontario and Quebec) where there is need for better drying conditions. Dryness in southern California and the southeastern United States is great for summer crop harvesting and winter crop planting.
- Colombia
and Venezuela rainfall was lighter than usual earlier this month - Precipitation
is expected to occur more often in coffee and sugarcane production areas during the next ten days in Colombia and western Venezuela - No
excessive rain is expected - Central
America rainfall will be erratic over the next two weeks with the greatest rain expected in Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico coastal areas - Much
of southeastern Asia will see alternating periods of rain and sunshine - This
will impact Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia - Some
net drying is expected in Sumatra, Indonesia, but soil moisture is abundant there today and a little drying might be welcome - Today’s
Southern Oscillational Index was +12.34 and it was expected to move erratically over the coming week
- New
Zealand rainfall is expected to be near normal in the coming week except along the west coast of South Island where excessive rain is possible - Temperatures
will be seasonable
Friday,
Dec. 3:
- ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London) - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm - Canada’s
Statcan releases wheat, durum, canola, barley, soybean production data - FranceAgriMer
weekly update on crop conditions
Monday,
Dec. 6:
- USDA
export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am - CNGOIC
monthly report on Chinese grains and oilseeds - Ivory
Coast cocoa arrivals - New
Zealand Commodity Price - U.S.
Purdue Agriculture Sentiment, 9:30am - Sucden
coffee briefing - HOLIDAY:
Thailand
Tuesday,
Dec. 7:
- China’s
first batch of November trade data, including soybean, edible oil and meat imports - Abares’
quarterly agricultural commodities report - French
agriculture ministry’s monthly crop production estimate - New
Zealand global dairy trade auction - EU
weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
Wednesday,
Dec. 8:
- EIA
weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production - Fitch
ESG Outlook Conference Asia Pacific, day 1 - FranceAgriMer’s
monthly grains report
Thursday,
Dec. 9:
- USDA’s
monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, noon - USDA
weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am - China
farm ministry’s monthly crop supply-demand report (CASDE) - Brazil’s
Conab report on yield, area and output of corn and soybeans - Fitch
ESG Outlook Conference Asia Pacific, day 2 - Port
of Rouen data on French grain exports
Friday,
Dec. 10:
- ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London) - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm - Malaysian
Palm Oil Board’s data on November palm oil reserves, output and exports - Malaysia’s
Dec. 1-10 palm oil exports - HOLIDAY:
Thailand
Source:
Bloomberg and FI
Statistics
Canada
November
estimates of production of principal field crops
2019 2020 2021 2019-2020 2020-2021
thousands of tonnes % change
Total
wheat 32670 35183 21652 7.7 -38.5
Durum
wheat 5017 6571 2654 31.0 -59.6
Spring
wheat 25952 25842 16009 -0.4 -38.0
Winter
wheat 1701 2770 2989 62.9 7.9
Barley
10383 10741 6948 3.4 -35.3
Canary
seed 175 178 109 1.8 -38.7
Canola
19912 19485 12595 -2.1 -35.4
Chick
peas 252 214 76 -14.8 -64.5
Corn
for grain 13404 13563 13984 1.2 3.1
Dry
beans 317 490 386 54.5 -21.2
Dry
field peas 4237 4594 2258 8.4 -50.9
Fall
Rye 326 475 466 45.9 -1.9
Flaxseed
486 578 346 18.9 -40.2
Lentils
2382 2868 1606 20.4 -44.0
Mustard
seed 135 99 50 -26.6 -49.4
Oats
4227 4576 2606 8.2 -43.0
Soybeans
6145 6359 6272 3.5 -1.4
Sunflower
seed 63 101 82 61.0 -19.3
The
funds for the week ending November 30 did not sell as much as expected contracts for corn, soybeans and wheat. They sold a more than expected soybean meal.
SUPPLEMENTAL
Non-Comm Indexes Comm
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn
221,644 -41,771 431,043 13,288 -606,683 27,702
Soybeans
6,555 -11,289 191,511 -4,700 -156,618 18,676
Soyoil
16,631 -19,011 128,273 1,340 -148,514 25,048
CBOT
wheat -22,095 -16,099 120,363 -3,452 -90,908 18,318
KCBT
wheat 33,204 -383 58,370 -1,722 -92,823 2,432
FUTURES
+ OPTS Managed Swaps Producer
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn
315,269 -51,423 270,497 38,216 -606,174 8,788
Soybeans
33,425 -15,931 149,093 6,048 -166,754 12,453
Soymeal
37,681 -15,878 92,701 4,817 -176,788 15,703
Soyoil
64,360 -17,994 98,601 -1,031 -156,094 26,494
CBOT
wheat 6,200 -11,763 68,563 -809 -72,625 15,686
KCBT
wheat 62,368 -3,242 27,748 360 -80,927 1,828
MGEX
wheat 14,204 -932 1,345 -169 -28,970 2,911
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total
wheat 82,772 -15,937 97,656 -618 -182,522 20,425
Live
cattle 78,517 9,484 80,696 -2,474 -161,515 -6,724
Feeder
cattle 4,907 5,364 3,840 -347 -1,467 -1,611
Lean
hogs 56,373 897 57,286 -2,152 -100,853 -428
Other NonReport Open
Net Chg Net Chg Interest Chg
Corn
66,413 3,637 -46,004 781 1,681,394 -418,180
Soybeans
25,685 119 -41,448 -2,687 790,880 -32,489
Soymeal
20,119 -1,586 26,288 -3,057 430,317 -67,517
Soyoil
-10,478 -91 3,609 -7,378 436,518 -61,816
CBOT
wheat 5,224 -4,347 -7,361 1,234 449,530 -136,514
KCBT
wheat -10,437 1,381 1,248 -327 251,380 -33,646
MGEX
wheat 9,116 -934 4,306 -876 79,324 -4,012
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total
wheat 3,903 -3,900 -1,807 31 780,234 -174,172
Live
cattle 21,154 1,629 -18,853 -1,915 369,380 6,618
Feeder
cattle 3 -947 -7,282 -2,460 45,537 -1,281
Lean
hogs 6,710 2,294 -19,515 -610 289,238 -8,378
Source:
CFTC, Reuters and FI
Macros
US
Non-Farm Payrolls Nov: 210K (est 550K; prev 531K)
US
Unemployment Rate Nov: 4.2% (est 4.5%; prev 4.6%)
–
Avg Hourly Earnings (M/M) Nov: 0.3% (est 0.4%; prev 0.4%)
–
Avg Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) Nov: 4.8% (est 5.0%; prev 4.9%)
US
Private Payrolls Nov: 235K (est 536K; prev 604K)
–
Manufacturing Payrolls Nov: 31K (est 45K; prev 60K)
–
Avg Weekly Hours Nov: 34.8 (est 34.7; prev 34.7)
–
Labour Force Participation Rate Nov: 61.8% (est 61.6%; prev 61.6%)
Canadian
Net Change in Employment Nov: 153K (est 37.5K; prev 31.2K)
–
Unemployment Rate Nov: 6.0% (est 6.6%; prev 6.7%)
–
Full Time Employment Change Nov: 79.9K (prev 36.4K)
–
Part Time Employment Change Nov: 73.8K (prev -5.2K)
Canadian
Hourly Wages Rate Perm. Employees Nov: 3.0% (prev 2.1%)
–
Participation Rate Nov: 65.3% (est 65.4%; prev 65.3%)
Canadian
Labour Productivity (Q/Q) Q3: -1.5% (est -0.6%; prev 0.6%)
·
CBOT corn rallied despite a late selloff in WTI crude oil and poor US jobs number that pressured US equities. We think the market was spreading against wheat and also following strength in soybeans.
·
March corn briefly traded below its 20-day MA ($5.78) but for the majority of the session it remained above it. The action today was technical (bullish), we think.
March
corn is seen in a sideways trading range over the short term, although wide range, and a resistance is seen at $5.9675, its November 24 absolute session high.
·
Funds bought an estimated net 4,000 CBOT corn contracts.
·
Bulgaria reported an outbreak of bird flu affecting 80,000 chickens in the southern village of Tsalapitsa.
Export
developments.
·
None reported
Updated
11/23/21
March
corn is seen in a $5.25-$6.25 range
·
The soybean complex traded higher despite a lower USD and lower equities. USDA announced another 122,000 tons to unknown, providing some support. Some bull traders might have been getting ahead of a potential RVO announcement.
The mandates for advanced biofuel are expected to increase.
·
There was no EPA announcement for the US RVO mandate decision today as traders expected something. Earlier this year Reuters picked up that the EPA was planning on
reducing blending
mandates for 2020 and 2021 to about 17.1 billion gallons and 18.6 billion gallons, respectively, compared to the 20.1 billion gallons finalized for 2020 before the pandemic.
·
Funds bought an estimated net 11,000 soybean contracts, bought 7,000 soybean meal and bought 5,000 soybean oil.
·
(Reuters) – The Biden administration is expected to propose expanding the kinds of renewable fuel production processes that are eligible to receive credits under the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard program, three sources familiar
with the matter said.
·
Russian plans to increase the sunflower oil export tax to $280.80/ton in January from $276.70/ton currently.
·
China crush margins on our analysis was last $2.22, versus $2.17 at the end of last week (unchanged) and compares to $0.81 a year ago.
Export
Developments
·
Private exporters reported the following:
-122,000
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year
Updated
11/30/21
Soybeans
– January $11.75-$13.00 range, March $11.75-$13.50
Soybean
meal – January $320-$370, March $315-$380
Soybean
oil – January 54.00-59.00, March 54.00-62.00
·
US wheat started mostly higher but collapsed on fund selling. Minneapolis wheat kicked off the selling. March Matif Paris wheat was 5.75 euros lower at 290.00. The contract failed to fill the gap made earlier this week of 297.00,
but we are thinking it eventually will.
·
Funds sold an estimated net 7,000 soft red winter wheat contracts.
·
Traders are awaiting on Saudi Arabia’s import tender.
·
Russia may impose a grain export quota for the February 15- June 30 period
at
14 million tons, including 9 million tons of wheat. The 14 million tons is 20 percent less than the 17.5 million ton cap that was put on last year for the February 15 through June 30, 2021 period. July through November 2021 grain exports were estimated by
SovEcon at about 21.2 million tons, down 16 percent from the same period year ago. Russia harvested 125.5 million tons of grain by the end of the third week of November, down from 137.2 at the same time year ago, down about 9 percent. Wheat production is
down roughly 11 percent to 78-79 million tons.
·
Russian wheat export taxes for December 8-14 were set at $84.90/ton, up from $80.80/ton December 1-7.
Export
Developments.
·
Japan bought 25,510 tons of Australian Standard wheat.
·
Saudi Arabia seeks 535,000 tons of wheat today for arrival between May and July 2022.
·
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat on Dec. 8.
Rice/Other
·
South Korea seeks 22,000 tons of rice from the US on December 9 for arrival in South Korea from May 2022 and from August 2022.
Updated
11/26/21
Chicago
March $7.50-$8.75
KC
March $7.75-$9.25
MN
March $9.50-$11.50
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
W: 312.604.1366
ICE IM:
treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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