FI Evening Grain Comments 12/05/22

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Private
exporters reported sales of 130,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

CBOT
agriculture markets tried to rebound today. We see net long positions erode going forward.

 

Weather

 

 

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR DECEMBER 5, 2022

• Argentina
  weather will continue stressful for crops in this coming week due to limited rain and warm to hot temperatures
• A
  better chance for rain will evolve in portions of the nation during the December 12-19 period, although a general soaking is still not being advertised
• Brazil
  weather will be favorably mixed this week, but pockets in the west and far south may continue to see an erratic rainfall pattern at times
• No
  critically dry conditions are likely, but Rio Grande do Sul will continue to dry out, despite some short term bouts of rain
• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat areas will continue dry biased, especially in Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska and northwestern parts of the Texas Panhandle over the next ten days
• West
  Texas cotton harvesting will advance with little risk of precipitation
• California
  crop areas received some needed moisture during the weekend with heavy snow in the mountains and good rain in the central valleys
• Additional
  snowfall is likely in the next ten days further raising mountain snowpack and improving the outlook for spring runoff, although the region is a long way from the finish line and much more snow is needed
• Snow
  depths are now greater than usual for this date, but still well below the April 1 norm.
  
• Flooding
  rain is expected this week in the Tennessee, River Basin, Kentucky and the northern U.S. Delta
• North
  America temperatures will be colder biased in Canada and the north-central and northwestern U.S. this week before
  
  “possibly” shifting southeast next week
• Australia
  harvest weather will advance well; rain is needed in sorghum and cotton areas of interior east-central Australia
• South
  Africa weather will trend wetter this week
• Northern
  Europe will be cooler than usual this week while the south is mild to warm with a boost in precipitation likely
• China
  precipitation will be more limited this week with no threatening cold
• A
  tropical cyclone will form in the Bay of Bengal this week before impacting southern India Thursday into the weekend

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Dec. 5:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• US
  crop harvesting for corn and cotton; winter wheat planting and condition, 4pm
• New
  Zealand commodity prices
• Malaysia’s
  Dec. 1-5 palm oil exports
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

Tuesday,
Dec. 6:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Australian
  crop report & Abares agricultural commodities
• Purdue
  Agriculture Sentiment, 9:30am
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction

Wednesday,
Dec. 7:

• China’s
  first batch of November trade data, including soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat imports
• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am

Thursday,
Dec. 8:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Vietnam’s
  customs releases Nov. coffee, rice and rubber export data
• EU
  Agricultural Outlook conference, Dec. 8-9, Brussels
• Brazil’s
  Conab data on area, yield and output of corn and soybeans
• HOLIDAY:
  Argentina, Chile

Friday,
Dec. 9:

• USDA’s
  World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), 12pm
• China’s
  agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly report on supply and demand for corn and soybeans
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Cane
  crush and sugar production data by Brazil’s Unica (tentative)
• HOLIDAY:
  Argentina

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range

Wheat                                 
334,653                 versus   175000-300000  range    below

Corn                                     
524,313                 versus   300000-750000  range    within

Soybeans                           
1,721,828             versus   1000000-2400000             range    within

 

 

Macros

Canadian
Building Permits (M/M) Oct: -1.4% (est 7.9%; prev -17.5%)

US
Factory Orders Oct: 1.0% (est 0.7%; prev 0.3%)

–
Factory Orders Ex-Trans Sep: 0.8% (prev R -0.2%)

US
Durable Goods Orders Oct F: 1.1% (est 1.0%; prev 1.0%)

–
Durables Ex-Trans: 0.5% (est 0.5%; prev 0.5%)

–
Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex-Air: 0.6% (prev 0.7%)

–
Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex-Air: 1.5% (prev 1.3%)

US
ISM Non-Mfg PMI Nov: 56.5 (est 53.5; prev 54.4)

–
Business Activity: 64.7 (prev 55.7)

–
Employment: 51.5 (prev 49.1)

–
New Orders: 56.0 (prev 56.5)

–
Prices Paid: 70.0 (prev 70.7)

 

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures
traded two sided.  New was light. Some companies are done trading for the remainder of the year.  The USD higher, IMO a thorn in the ags.

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of December 01, 2022 were 524,313 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 311,658 tons previous week and compares to 786,873 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 208,043
tons, China for 70,483 tons, and Honduras for 8,250 tons.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

 

Updated
12/2/22

March
corn $6.00-$7.15 range.

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans were lower on lack of news. We saw little news other than commodity selling.  SBM was up amid product spreading .  Look for a reversal soon. 62.36 is our Jan SBO support.

·        
China is easing covid restrictions by lowering testing requirements, a sign they might be getting back to business by allowing workers to return to factories, at least in full force.

·        
Brazil soybean plantings reached 91 percent, 3 points below this time last year.  Corn reached 93 percent and is in good shape. Southern Brazil weather should be monitored as it’s on the drier side.

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of December 01, 2022 were 1,721,828 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 2,226,948 tons previous week and compares to 2,369,146 tons year ago. Major countries included China for
1,496,590 tons, Italy for 135,970 tons, and Mexico for 33,932 tons.

 

Export
Developments

·        
Private exporters reported sales of 130,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022-23 marketing year.

 

 

Updated
12/2/22

Soybeans
– January $14.00-$15.15 (unch)

Soybean
meal – January $380-$450 (unch)

Soybean
oil – January 62.00-70.00 range

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures fell on widespread commodity selling. Look for funds to build a long shot position.

·        
Australia estimated a record 36.6 million ton wheat crop, a 1% increase over the previous record set last year. This comes after heavy rains hit the southeastern areas over the last couple of months. Barley production is due to
reach 13.4 million tons, the fourth-largest crop on record, with canola expected to hit a record 7.3 million tons.

·        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of December 01, 2022 were 334,653 tons, below a range of trade expectations, above 284,476 tons previous week and compares to 248,553 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 61,550
tons, Spain for 19,070 tons, and Algeria for 18,824 tons.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Pakistan bought 500,000 tons of wheat at an average of $372/ton c&f for LH Dec-Feb 8 shipment.

·        
Taiwan seeks 42,750 tons of US wheat on December 7 for Jan 25-Feb 8 shipment.

·        
China plans to auction off 40,000 tons of wheat from reserves on December 7. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported

 

Updated
12/2/22

Chicago
– March $7.25 to $9.00

KC
– March 8.00-$10.25

MN
– March $8.00 to $10.25