We look for a softer opening with possible exception for soybean oil. Corn may see limited downside risk with persistent dryness over the far western Corn Bely states. There were some CBOT deliveries posted (below) for soybean oil and meal.
Calls
Soybeans 3-5 cents lower
Meal $0.50-1.20 lower
SBO steady to 30 lower
Corn 1-3 cents lower
Chicago wheat 2-4 cents lower
KC wheat 3-5 cents lower
MN wheat 3-5 cents lower.
The US Reconciliation Package Goes will head to the White House this week. The tax, climate and drug price agenda has been of great debate between the two major parties and could end up very costly for the middle-income US tax class over the long term but reduce the federal budget deficit. Biofuel credits may support SBO prices. This is the first time in 34 years that the US has significantly addressed the climate situation!
The Sunday weather outlook improved for the US Midwest. Some rain relief is seen for the WCB for the upcoming week, but the central Great Plains look to remain dry, bias NE, OK, and TX. Not all areas will see net drying, but something to monitor. US temperatures will be warmer than normal for the central US. Other areas will see normal to cooler than normal temperatures, good for crop development.
There is some chatter China may restrict imports from Australia, but bottom line if China needs to feed their people, they will buy it. Australia’s exports of raw and finished goods exports are dependent on China (35-40 percent), so we think a larger trade spat may be avoided.
Egypt seeks local vegetable oils on August 16, 3,000 tons of soyoil and 1,000 tons of sunflower oil are sought for arrival Oct. 1-25 and/or Nov. 1-20, 2022.
Ukraine grain shipments are increasing, and we learned a small amount of wheat was included in the sailing logs. Nearly 60 ships from 14 countries were thought to be blocked as of Saturday in Ukraine ports. Only about half million tons of grains and oilseed/product has been shipped since the safe passage agreement.
Germany announced they will give energy products a top priority to Rhine River shipments, backburning ag products.
7-day
Bloomberg Ag Calendar
Monday, Aug. 15:
- USDA export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
- US crop conditions for wheat, corn, soybeans and cotton; wheat harvesting, 4pm
- Malaysia’s Aug 1-15 palm oil export data
- HOLIDAY: Argentina, France, India, Bangladesh
Tuesday, Aug. 16:
- New Zealand global dairy trade auction
- EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
Wednesday, Aug. 17:
- EIA weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
- HOLIDAY: Indonesia
Thursday, Aug. 18:
- China’s second batch of July trade data, including corn, pork and wheat imports
- International Grains Council report
- USDA weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
Friday, Aug. 19:
- ICE Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
- CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
- FranceAgriMer weekly update on crop conditions
- Brazil’s Conab releases sugar, cane and ethanol output data
- US cattle on feed, 3pm
- EARNINGS: Deere
Saturday, Aug. 20:
- China’s third batch of July trade data, including soy, corn and pork imports by country
- Amspec to release Malaysia’s Aug. 1-20 palm oil export data
Source: Bloomberg and FI
USDA FSA crop acreage data
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
W: 312.604.1366
ICE IM: treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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IssuesAndStopsReport081222.pdf
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