PDF Attached
USDA released their March S&D.
Reaction: Initially bearish corn and soybeans. Wheat held gains but turned lower after corn made another leg down. But a recovery in soybeans from bottom picking added renewed support to wheat and limited losses in corn.
USDA its 2020-21 US ending stocks for corn, all-wheat, and soybean unchanged. Analysts had looked for a reduction in US corn and soybean stocks. The US SBO carryout was revised higher. By 19 million pounds with various changes to supply (yield 11.65 vs. 11.62 last month) and use (domestic food/feed/other industrial use up 200 million pounds). Could this be the beginning USDA is starting to incorporate SBO use for renewable diesel? USDA did announce they are adding SBO for renewable use to their balance sheets sometime this spring. See below US soybean oil balance changes.
USDA took Brazil soybeans up 1 MMT, left Brazil corn, Argentina corn, and lowered Argentina soybeans by 0.5 MMT. World soybean production (+0.7) and corn output (+2.3) were upward revised from the previous month. There were no changes to China soybean imports. They also left China corn imports unchanged.
World wheat stocks fell 3.0 million tons, which provides some support, but corn on hitting session lows as of 11:15 weighed on wheat futures, only to rebound after soybeans paired losses. KC wheat initially was under the most pressure from upward revision to HRW stocks (MN/KC spreading). With some planned spring wheat area expected to be lost this spring to corn, canola and soybeans, we like MN over Chicago and MN over KC.
We made no changes to our price outlooks, expect for front end KC wheat taken up 25 cents.
Look for the trade to shift focus to March planting intentions and US weather.
USDA NASS executive summary
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/Executive_Briefings/index.php
FI price ranges
May corn is seen in a $5.20 and $5.75 range.
July is seen in a $5.00 and $6.00 range.
December corn is seen in a $3.85-$5.50 range.
May soybeans are seen in a $13.50 and $15.00 range
May soymeal is seen in a $400 and $460 range
May soybean oil is seen in a 49.00 and 54.00 cent range
May Chicago wheat is seen in a $6.25‐$6.90 range
May KC wheat is seen in a $5.75‐$6.75 range (up 25, unch)
May MN wheat is seen in a $6.20‐$6.65 range
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
W: 312.604.1366
ICE IM: treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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Grain_Market_Snapshot030921.pdf