PDF Attached
USDA released their May supply and demand estimates
Reaction: Neutral soybeans, bullish corn and bullish wheat
USDA NASS briefing
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/Executive_Briefings/2022/03-31-2022.pdf
USDA OCE Secretary’s Briefing
https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity-markets/wasde/secretary-briefing
US 2021-22 soybean stocks were lowered 25 million bushels to reflect an increase in crush, yet product production was unchanged from the previous month (puzzling). USDA did lower soybean meal exports by 200,000 short tons and increase domestic use by a like amount. New crop soybean production was estimated at 4.640 billion bushels, 27 million above an average trade guess. The new-crop carryout was estimated at 310 million bushels, above 235 million for 2021-22.
US 2021-22 corn stocks were unchanged from the previous month. US left the 2021-22 corn balance sheet unchanged. The trade was looking for exports to be increased 25 million bushels. New-crop soybean production was estimated at 14.460 million bushels, 313 million below an average trade guess and 655 million below year ago. USDA’s implied yield is 177.0 bushels per acre, 2.6 bushels below the trade. The new-crop carryout was estimated at 1.360 billion bushels, near trade expectations.
The 2021-22 US all-wheat carryout was lowered 23 million bushels. USDA took exports up 20 million bushels and food use up 3 million. The upward revision might come as a surprise to the trade but note Census exports for wheat in their latest update came in well above our working estimate. USDA reported a much lower US winter wheat production estimate of 1.729 billion bushels (65 million below), and 103 million below 2021. HRW wheat of 590 million was reported 95 million below an average trade guess. US all-wheat stocks of 619 million bushels were 40 million below the trade average.
See US balance changes after the text.
New-crop world numbers indicate a major shift in production estimates for soybeans and corn. Soybean production next crop-year is expected to expand 45.3 million tons while the world corn production to contract 34.9 million tons. World wheat production is expected to decline only 4.5 million tons despite USDA estimating Ukraine wheat output to decline 11.5 million tons for the previous season to 21.5 million tons. USDA boosted 2021-22 world corn output by 5.2 million tons (smaller countries, increase 2021-22 world wheat output by 0.5 million tons, and lowered soybean production by 1.4 million tons. Argentina 2021-22 production was lowered 1.5 million tons and Brazil was left unchanged. Attached are major country changes for 2021-22 and 2022-23.
Price outlook:
July corn is seen in a $7.50 and $8.75 range
December corn is seen in a wide $5.50-$8.50 range
Soybeans – November is seen in a wide $12.75-$16.50 range
Soybean meal – July $350-$450
Soybean oil – July 76-88
Chicago – July $10.50 to $13.00 range, December $8.50-$12.50
KC – July $11.25 to $14.00 range, December $8.75-$13.50
MN – July $11.25‐$14.00, December $9.00-$14.00
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
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Skype: fi.treilly
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Grain_Market_Snapshot051222.pdf