PDF Attached
USDA released their March report
Reaction: Bearish wheat, neutral to slightly negative soybeans, and slightly supportive corn.
World wheat changes don’t seem to fully reflect Black Sea problems, but hard to predict upcoming global trade flows. They lowered Ukraine and Russian wheat exports, partially offset by Australia, India and other countries.
-US wheat exports down 10 million.
-US soybean exports up 40
-SBO for biofuel down 300
This report didn’t have much impact on major agriculture futures following the release, other than soybean oil that sold off after USDA cut soybean oil for biofuel use.
US soybean stocks 285 vs. 325 last month (-40), 7 million vs. trade
US corn stocks 1440 vs. 1540 last month (-100), -39 million vs. trade
US wheat stocks 653 vs. 648 last month (5), 25 million vs. trade
WLD soy stocks 90.0 vs. 92.8 last month (-2.9), 0.5 million vs. trade
WLD corn stocks 301.0 vs. 302.2 last month (-1.3), -0.1 million vs. trade
WLD wheat stocks 281.5 vs. 278.2 last month (3.3), 3.9 million vs. trade
Brazil Soy 127.0 vs. 134.0 last month (-7), -2.0 million vs. trade
Arg. Soy 43.5 vs. 45.0 last month (-1.5), 0.1 million vs. trade
Brazil Corn 114.0 vs. 114.0 last month (0), 1.0 million vs. trade
Arg. Corn 53.0 vs. 54.0 last month (-1), 0.9 million vs. trade
USDA OCE Secretary’s Briefing
https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity-markets/wasde/secretary-briefing
Black Sea Ukraine and Russia wheat were slashed combined 7 million tons by USDA, but by a less than what the trade expected. Corn exports were lowered for Ukraine. Russia coarse grain exports (includes corn) were unchanged at 9.23 million tons.
Changes from previous month:
Russia wheat down 3MMT to 32MMT
Ukraine wheat down 4MMT to 20MMT
Ukraine corn down 6MMT to 27.5MMT
US corn stocks were lowered a large 100 million bushels to 1.440 billion bushels, 39 million below an average trade guess. Stocks are still up 16.5 percent from year ago. USDA increased US corn for ethanol 25 million bushels to 5.350 billion. We didn’t expect that. Exports were raised 75 million bushels to help offset lower Ukraine corn exports. World corn production was increased 800,000 tons and stocks lowered 1.3 million tons.
US all-wheat stocks were reported by USDA at 653 million bushels, up 5 million from the previous month and 25 million above the trade guess. USDA lowered all-wheat imports by 5 million and increased exports by only 10 million bushels. Exports may go higher if major importers turn to the US for spot shipment. World wheat production was increased 2.1 million tons and stocks were increased 3.3 million tons.
US soybean stocks were reported at 285 million bushels, 40 million below the previous month and 7 million above an average trade guess. USDA raised soybean exports by 40 million and lowered residual by 1 million. No other changes were noted. There were no changes to US soybean meal S&D. For soybean oil, USDA cut soybean oil for biofuel use by 300 million pounds, a surprise. They took exports up 200 million, justified with recent sales announcements, and increased food use by 100 million, which was also warranted based on historical food use trend. World soybean production fell 10.1 million tons from the previous month and stocks decreased 2.9 million tons. Argentina soybean production was taken down 1.5 million tons to 43.5 million tons, in line with expectations. Brazil soybean production was lowered 7.0 million tons to 127 million, 2 million less than expected.
Price outlook: – no revisions
May corn is seen in a $6.50 and $8.50 range
December corn is seen in a wide $5.50-$7.50 range
Soybeans – May $15.75-$18.25
Soybeans – November is seen in a wide $12.50-$16.00 range
Soybean meal – May $425-$520
Soybean oil – May 72.00-80.00
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
W: 312.604.1366
ICE IM: treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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Grain_Market_Snapshot030922.pdf