PDF attached
USDA released their March grain stocks and planting intentions reports.
Reaction: Bullish
Limit up soybeans and corn
Acreage for the 7 major row crops came in less than expected and missed trade expectations by 3.5 million acres, at the expense to much lower soybeans at 87.6 million acres (2.4 million below trade) and corn at 91.14 million acres (2.1 million below a Reuters trade guess). The US winter wheat area came in 1.4 million acres above trade expectations at 33.079 million acres. Spring wheat was 11.74 million acres, slightly above trade expectations and durum at 1.54 million, 101,000 acres below expectations.
Based on the latest data, following table is our prediction for US supply.
Grain stocks were 30 million bushels above expectations for soybeans, 66 million less for corn, and 42 million higher for all-wheat. The miss in estimates was due in part to revisions for the fall quarter. USDA revised higher December 1 soybean stocks by 14 million bushels, lowered Dec 1 corn stocks by 28 million, and took all-wheat up 29 million bushels. We look for the “extra” soybean supply to get absorbed by crush and exports by the end of the crop year. For corn, we already look for USDA to raise exports by at least 100 million bushels and reduce feed. Post stocks report, we see the US corn carryout shrinking 100-150 million bushels in April, bullish in our opinion. For wheat stocks are expected to remain ample and US carryout stocks could increase 20 million bushels in the April S&D update.
Look for the trade to shift focus to US weather. This could stall the bullish sentiment in agriculture futures over the short term, but long term we remain bullish led by soybean oil.
USDA NASS executive summary
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/Executive_Briefings/index.php
FI price ranges
May corn is seen in a $5.40 and $6.00 range (up 15, up 50).
July is seen in a $5.25 and $6.00 range (up 15, up 50).
December corn is seen in a $3.85-$5.50 range.
May soybeans are seen in a $13.75 and $15.75 range. (up 75 and up 125)
November $10.50-$14.50 (unch, up 50)
May soymeal is seen in a $395 and $425 range. (up $10, up $25)
December $325-$5.00 (unch, up $25)
May soybean oil is seen in a 50 and 55 cent range (up 150, up 200)
December 40-60 cent wide range
May Chicago wheat is seen in a $6.00‐$6.65 range
May KC wheat is seen in a $5.75‐$6.15 range
May MN wheat is seen in a $6.00‐$6.40 range
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
W: 312.604.1366
ICE IM: treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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Grain_Market_Snapshot033121.pdf