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USDA released their April supply and demand estimates
Text corrects corn for corn for feed use, adds comments.
Reaction: Slightly bearish corn, supportive soybeans & SBO, neutral wheat. Price gains were added in some agriculture markets post-USDA report. Revised May price outlooks (below)
USDA NASS briefing
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/Executive_Briefings/2022/03-31-2022.pdf
USDA OCE Secretary’s Briefing
https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity-markets/wasde/secretary-briefing
US soybean stocks 260 vs. 285 last month (-25), -2 million vs. trade
US corn stocks 1440 vs. 1440 last month (0), 25 million vs. trade
US wheat stocks 678 vs. 653 last month (25), 22 million vs. trade
WLD soy stocks 89.6 vs. 90.0 last month (-0.4), 0.8 million vs. trade
WLD corn stocks 305.5 vs. 301.0 last month (4.5), 4.6 million vs. trade
WLD wheat stocks 278.4 vs. 281.5 last month (-3.1), -3.0 million vs. trade
Brazil Soy 125.0 vs. 127.0 last month (-2), -0.1 million vs. trade
Arg. Soy 43.5 vs. 43.5 last month (0), 0.7 million vs. trade
Brazil Corn 116.0 vs. 114.0 last month (2), 0.9 million vs. trade
Arg. Corn 53.0 vs. 53.0 last month (0), 1.0 million vs. trade
Higher prices post report. US corn and wheat stocks were above expectations and near an average trade guess for soybeans. We thought the report was slightly bearish for corn. World corn stocks increased 4.5 million tons from the previous month. CBOT crush margins slipped after USDA increased their US soybean export forecast by 25 million bushels. They lowered the meal yield, increased imports (50) & domestic use (200) and lowered exports (200). Soybean oil exports were taken higher by 100 million pounds, a surprise. We are now 200 million pounds below USDA. Argentina corn production was unchanged, and Brazil was taken up 2.0 million tons. Argentina soybeans were left unchanged and Brazil soybeans were lowered 2 million. Ukraine corn prod was unchanged from last month at 41.9 million tons and corn exports were lowered 4.5 million from last month to 23.00. US corn for ethanol was lifted 25 million bushels. Corn for feed was lowered 25 million bushels to 5.625 billion, up from 5.598 billion year ago. As a result, US corn ending stocks did not change. US all-wheat exports were lowered 15 million and feed 10 million bushels. Per March 1 stocks, the feed adjustment was justified. Slow USDA export sales likely prompted USDA to lower exports. Projected 2021-22 ending stocks were raised 25 million bushels to 678 million but are still 20 percent lower than last year. Russian wheat exports were raised 1 million tons to 33 million and Ukraine wheat exports were lowered 1 million to 19 million. Some of the trade was looking for a larger downward revision for Ukraine wheat exports. World wheat stocks were down 3.1 million tons and world soybean stocks decreased by 400,000 tons.
Price outlook:
Revised 4/8
May corn is seen in a $7.25 and $8.10 range (up 15, unchanged)
December corn is seen in a wide $5.50-$8.00 range
Soybeans – May $16.00-$17.65 (up 50, up 15)
Soybeans – November is seen in a wide $12.75-$15.50 range
Soybean meal – May $440-$490 (up $10, down $10)
Soybean oil – May 70.00-76.50 (up 10, up 200)
Chicago May $9.50 to $12.00 range (up 50, unch), December $8.50-$11.00
KC May $10.00 to $12.00 range (up 75, unch), December $8.75-$11.50
MN May $10.50‐$12.00 (up 50, unch), December $9.00-$11.75
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
W: 312.604.1366
ICE IM: treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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Grain_Market_Snapshot040822.pdf