FI Grain Market Update 04/09/23

Happy holiday!

 

PDF Attached includes FAO price index, USDA S&D snapshot, and CFTC COT graphs

 

Early calls:

Soybeans steady to 4 higher

Meal steady to $0.50 higher

SBO steady to slightly higher (subject to change based on WTI crude)

Corn 1-3 higher

Wheat 2-5 higher

 

Quiet
for the long holiday weekend for the soybean complex but little busier for grains.
Malaysia June palm futures on Friday traded 2 ringgit lower to 3,821.
MBOB
S&D data will be out later today. 

 

Due
out 4/10

 

Rissing
Black Sea tensions could underpin US wheat futures Sunday into Monday. The Ukraine export deal is set to expire in May and Turkey is looking to extend it. Meanwhile Russia would like to broker a deal that includes fertilizer exports. Reuters: “More than 27
million tonnes of grain and other foodstuffs have been exported from Ukraine aboard 881 outbound vessels since the Black Sea Grain Initiative began in August, official data shows.” Russia over the weekend said they may have to work outside the grain deal if
the West maintains “obsticles.” The market for Paris May wheat is closed Monday for holiday. Many EU countries and Argentina will also be on holiday. Late last week the French AgMin reported the wheat crop 93 percent G/E as of April 3, down one point from
the previous week. FAO food price index for the month of March fell for the 12^th consecutive month tyo 126.9 points, from 129.7 for February and lowest since July 2021. Ukraine over the long weekend suspended grain exports to Poland after pushback
from protests by Poland producers over the influx of Ukraine grain exports. Ukraine will refrain from exporting wheat, corn, rape seed and sunflower to Poland. Meanwhile, producers in Romania also staged protests, also citing economic damage from cheaper Ukraine
grain imports. About 200 farmers protested outside the European Commission’s local headquarters, according to a Reuters story. Ukraine spring grain sowings reached 620,500 hectares over the weekend. AgMin: As of April 7 it included 126,700 hectares of spring
wheat, 376,600 hectares of barley, 73,100 hectares of peas, 41,300 hectares of oats and 200 hectares of millet.Russia is looking at raising their calculation price for the wheat export duty to 17,000 roubles ($212.23) per ton from 15,000 roubles per ton. This
could slow wheat export shipments for the upcomming crop year. For the April 12-18 period, Russia will increase its wheta export duty by 3.1% to 5339.4 rubles per ton, using an indicative price of $289.20 per ton.

 

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Japan’s AgMin seeks 60,000 tons of feed wheat and 20,000 tons of feed barley on April 12 for arrival in Japan by September 28.

 

Weather

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Monday,
April 10:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• Malaysia’s
  April 1-10 palm oil export data
• Brazil’s
  Unica to release cane crush, sugar production data (tentative)
• US
  planting data for corn, cotton, spring wheat and soybeans, 4pm
• US
  winter wheat condition, 4pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Easter Monday holiday in several countries, including the UK, Australia, France, Germany and Hong Kong

Tuesday,
April 11:

• USDA’s
  World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE), 12pm
• China’s
  agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly supply and demand report

Wednesday,
April 12:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• France
  agriculture ministry’s 2023 planting estimates

Thursday,
April 13:

• China’s
  1st batch of March trade data, including soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat & offal imports
• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Brazil’s
  CONAB publishes production, area and yield data for corn and soybeans
• FranceAgriMer
  monthly grains balance sheet
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

Friday,
April 14:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer’s
  weekly crop condition report
• HOLIDAY:
  India, Thailand

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

CFTC
Commitment of Traders

Good
commercial selling was seen for soybeans and corn for the week ending April 3. Managed money longs were active for soybeans, corn, and KC wheat.

 

 

 

 

 

Fund
estimates as of April 6

 

Reuters
table

SUPPLEMENTAL     
Non-Comm               Indexes                  Comm

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg        Net        Chg

Corn              
-24,633      6,836    292,074      9,570   -230,461    -38,998

Soybeans          
113,395     26,226    138,037     13,946   -227,885    -51,574

Soyoil            
-33,854     -2,235    104,622      2,277    -69,371      1,583

CBOT
wheat         -78,289       -735     76,167       -274     -4,843     -4,635

KCBT
wheat          -9,422      3,252     44,001       -668    -31,201     -2,645

 

FUTURES
+ OPTS     Managed                 Swaps              Producer

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg        Net        Chg

Corn               
21,547     34,835    227,157     -1,718   -242,880    -39,334

Soybeans          
145,964     46,442     88,873     -1,738   -228,798    -48,733

Soymeal            
95,735       -394     90,024      3,039   -216,716     -4,849

Soyoil            
-10,585      1,875    106,201     -1,297    -94,181      3,609

CBOT
wheat         -87,083      2,790     62,963        213     -3,814     -5,205

KCBT
wheat           7,613      7,376     34,298     -1,488    -33,512     -2,917

MGEX
wheat             694        274      1,255       -121     -5,643     -2,011

                
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-

Total
wheat        -78,776     10,440     98,516     -1,396    -42,969    -10,133

 

Live
cattle         85,001     22,370     45,599      1,989   -144,035    -20,646

Feeder
cattle        7,108        421      1,130       -484     -2,076        452

Lean
hogs          -22,590       -107     45,771       -755    -23,964       -173

 

                     
Other             NonReport                  Open

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg   Interest        Chg

Corn               
31,158    -16,375    -36,980     22,591  1,670,937         99

Soybeans           
17,507     -7,373    -23,546     11,402    911,421     24,603

Soymeal            
11,620        861     19,336      1,341    487,963     21,104

Soyoil                
-37     -2,561     -1,396     -1,626    525,578     19,293

CBOT
wheat          20,969     -3,442      6,964      5,645    449,495      3,344

KCBT
wheat          -5,020     -3,032     -3,378         61    191,019      2,979

MGEX
wheat           3,559      1,101        135        756     67,359      2,561

                
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-

Total
wheat         19,508     -5,373      3,721      6,462    707,873      8,884

 

Live
cattle         26,220      3,914    -12,785     -7,626    418,735     31,643

Feeder
cattle        3,773        208     -9,935       -596     75,379     -3,625

Lean
hogs           -2,532        338      3,315        695    325,095     11,429

 

 

Macros

US
Change In Nonfarm Payrolls Mar: 236K (est 230K, prev 311K)

Unemployment
Rate Mar: 3.5% (est 3.6%, prev 3.6%)

Average
Hourly Earnings Mar M/M: 0.3% (est 0.3%, prev 0.2%)

Average
Hourly Earnings Mar Y/Y: 4.2% (est 4.3%, prev 4.6%)

 

US
Change In Manufacturing Payrolls Mar: -1K (est -4K, prevR -1K)

Change
In Private Payrolls Mar: 189K (est 218K, prevR 266K)

Average
Weekly Hours All Employees Mar: 34.4 (est 34.5, prev 34.5)

Labour
Force Participation Rate Mar: 62.6% (est 62.5%, prev 62.5)

Underemployment
Rate Mar: 6.7% (prev 6.8%)