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US soybean stocks 210 vs. 210 last month (0), 12 million vs. trade
US corn stocks 1342 vs. 1342 last month (0), 23 million vs. trade
US wheat stocks 598 vs. 568 last month (30), 24 million vs. trade
WLD soy stocks 100.3 vs. 100.0 last month (0.3), 1.7 million vs. trade
WLD corn stocks 295.4 vs. 296.5 last month (-1.1), 0.3 million vs. trade
WLD wheat stocks 265.1 vs. 267.2 last month (-2.1), -2.0 million vs. trade
Brazil Soy 154.0 vs. 153.0 last month (1), 0.3 million vs. trade
Arg. Soy 27.0 vs. 33.0 last month (-6), -2.3 million vs. trade
Brazil Corn 125.0 vs. 125.0 last month (0), -1.1 million vs. trade
Arg. Corn 37.0 vs. 40.0 last month (-3), -0.1 million vs. trade
USDA surprised the trade by leaving US ending stocks unchanged for corn and soybeans, then raising all-wheat ending stocks by 30 million bushels. They left the residual categories unchanged for corn and soybeans. The trade in large part was looking for an adjustment to the corn and soybean feed categories based on March 31 stocks. The 2022-23 US soybean and soybean oil balances were unchanged from March. For US meal, USDA lowered 2022-23 production by 50,000 short tons and raised imports by the same amount. For US corn, imports were lowered 10 million bushels and FSI decreased by 10 million. USDA left US corn exports unchanged at 1.850 billion. US ending stocks for all-wheat of 598 million are down from 698 million for 2021-22, but large in retrospect. USDA took all-wheat imports up 5 million and lowered feed use by 25 million. US changes for wheat by class was seen a little friendly for Chicago but touch bearish for high protein wheat. By class, hard red winter stocks fell 11 million, soft red winter was down 14 million, hard red spring increased 31 million, and White wheat was raised 21 million. USDA also upward adjusted durum by 4 million.
USDA made some unexpected changes to the global balance sheets. One of the biggest surprises was a 6-million-ton downgrade to Argentina soybean production to 27 million tons, 2.3 million below an average trade guess. We think USDA has one more good round for lowering Argentina soybean production. A month from now Argentina’s soybean crop should be mostly harvested, and the trade may have a better handle on output. Brazil soybean production was raised 1 million tons to a record 154.0 million. USDA lowered China’s 2022-23 soybean crush by 1 million tons to 91 million but left imports unchanged at 96 million tons (91.57 MMT year earlier). World soybean production was lowered 5.5 million tons to 369.6 million, but stocks increased 0.3 million ton100.3 million, 0.6 percent above 2021-22. The world carryout was seen as bearish for soybean futures.
USDA lowered world corn production by 3 million tons to 1.145 billion, 6 percent below 2021-22. World corn stocks fell 1.1 million to 295.4 million, nearly a 4 percent decrease from year ago. Argentina corn production was lowered 3.0 million tons to 37.0 million. Brazil corn was left unchanged at 125.0 million. We think there could be some downside for the Argentina corn crop next month and upside for Brazil. All wheat global production was lowered 0.1 million tons and stocks decreased 2.1 million tons to 265.1 million (down 2.6% from 2021-22). China wheat imports were raised 2.0 million tons to 12 million, a 25 percent increase from 2021-22. USDA increased Ukraine wheat exports by 1 million tons to 14.5 million tons, down from 18.84 million year earlier.
| Terry Reilly Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds |
| Futures International One Lincoln Center 18W140 Butterfield Rd. Suite 1450 Oakbrook terrace, Il. 60181 |
| Work: 312.604.1366 ICE IM: treilly1 Skype IM: fi.treilly |
| treilly@futures-int.com
|
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