FI Grain Market Update 06/09/23

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USDA released their June S&D report

 

Reaction:  Neutral overall with exception of global wheat supplies increasing 10.4 million tons from the previous month to 800.2 million tons, 11.7 million tons above 2022-23. This is one of the most uneventful USDA monthly reports we have seen in a while. Prices were little changed after the report hit the wires, but soybeans and soybean oil rallied thereafter, and grains remain mostly under pressure. The trade is already back to trading weather and demand. Next major report will be the June 1 stocks report which should give the trade a glimpse if USDA overstated the 2022 US soybean and corn crops.

 

USDA NASS briefing

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/Executive_Briefings/index.php

USDA OCE Secretary’s Briefing

https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity-markets/wasde/secretary-briefing

 

there were no changes in US soybean supply, as expected. Same goes with corn. All wheat production increased 6 million bushels from May with HRW up 11 million, partially offset by a reduction in SRW by 4 million and WW by 1 million. USDA made no changes to any other wheat supply and demand categories for the old and new crop balance sheets.  US all-wheat ending stocks were raised 6 million bushels. The trade was looking for a 7-million-bushel decrease. Look for minor adjustments to old crop all-wheat after the next round of trade balance data and food use is released.  The US old crop corn carryout was increased 35 million bushels due to a 15-million-bushel reduction in imports that was more than offset by a 50 million decrease in exports. The 50 million drop in exports was more than we expected. USDA did not address the US corn for ethanol use of 5.250 billion bushels. We think they are still overstating this by at least 25 million, so we look for another increase in US 2022-23 corn stocks by at least that amount in the July update, assuming USDA does not deviate much from actual June 1 corn stocks when updated at the end of this month.  New-crop US corn carryout increased 35 million tons to 2.257 billion, 55 percent greater than 2022-23.  Look for new-crop prices to continue to grind lower if US weather improves. USDA lowered 2022-23 US soybean exports by 15 million bushels despite a higher-than-expected April Census export figure. With old crop commitments drying up, this could be justified, but it will all come down to how much of the  current crop year commitments will be rolled into new-crop.  USDA made no changes to its new-crop US soybean balance sheet. Overall US ending stocks for wheat, corn, and soybeans for both old and new crop came in near trade expectations.

 

The world balance sheets for 2022-23 reflected several minor changes to production and stocks. The carryout for all three major commodities came in near expectations as production estimates for Argentina corn and soybeans were near trade expectations. 2022-23 Argentina corn production was lowered 2 million tons to 35 million and soybeans lowered 2 million tons to 25 million tons. With nearly all the Argentina soybean crop collected, we think USDA has room to lower output next month by 2-3 million tons, based on much of the trade penciling in a 21-million-ton estimate. For corn, Argentina collected a third of its crop, so the outcome of the size of the crop is yet to be determined.  What was interesting in this report was 2023-24 global wheat production. At 800.2 million tons, that is 10.4 million above May, and 11.7 million above year ago. Global wheat stocks were upward revised 6.4 million tons to 270.7 million, a 1.5% increase from 2022-23. The question remains how much of that 2023 global wheat production will be food grade wheat. JCI via Bloomberg article mentioned China could lose 10 million tons of food grade wheat from recent heavy rains, that will be used for feed. USDA will likely address some of the  global supply issues in their upcoming reports over the summer. Note there was no change to Australian wheat production of 29 million tons, which could be overstated 3-3.5 million tons.

 

For the rest of the month look for the trade to be sensitive to spot US demand and changes in the Northern Hemisphere weather outlooks.

 

Price outlook:

July corn $5.75-$6.35

September corn $4.50-$5.75

December corn $4.25-$5.75

 

(updated 6/9)

Soybeans – July $13.00-$14.25, November $11.00-$14.50

Soybean meal – July $360-$415, December $290-$450

Soybean oil – July 52.50-56.00, December 43-53

 

(updated 6/9)

Chicago Wheat

July $5.85-$6.50, September $5.50-$6.75

KC – July $7.60-$8.50, September $7.50-$9.00

MN – July $7.75-$8.50, September $7.25-$9.00