PDF attached
USDA released their June supply and demand estimates
Reaction: Slightly bullish soybeans but the trade had that worked in. Bearish corn and neutral wheat. Bottom picking from longs looking to get back into the market lifted grains higher shortly after the report was released. Soybeans were lower on buy the rumor, sell the fact over exports. Soybean oil is lower on product spreading and weakness in palm oil.
USDA NASS briefing
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/Executive_Briefings/index.php
USDA OCE Secretary’s Briefing
https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity-markets/wasde/secretary-briefing
US soybean supply was unchanged for new crop. Old crop stocks were trimmed 30 million bushels with an increase in US 2021-22 export by 30 million to 2.170 billion. All other demand categories were unchanged. USDA cited lower Brazil export for the change in US exports. USDA made no changes in its 2022-23 demand. With a lower carry in, USDA lowered new-crop stocks by 30 million to 280 million. The soybean price is forecast at $14.70 per bushel, up 30 cents from last month. Global oilseed production for 2022-23 was lowered 0.3 million tons to 646.8 million as lower sunflower seed is partly offset by higher rapeseed and soybean output. Global 2022-23 soybean ending stocks were raised 0.9 million tons to 100.5 million. The took 2021-22 Argentina soybean production up 1.4 million tons to 43.4 million and 2021-22 Brazil soybean production up 1.0 million tons to 126.0 million.
2021-22 US corn ending stocks was perhaps the largest surprise, with a 45 million bushel increase to 1.485 billion. USDA lowered current crop year exports by 50 million bushels based on current inspections and Census data. USDA export sales commitments are also lagging. USDA increased food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) by 5 million bushels, citing higher use for glucose and dextrose and starch, partially offset by a decline in high fructose corn syrup. USDA also increased its projection for 2022-23 FSI by 5 million. There was no other changes in new-crop US corn demand. Supply was unchanged. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 30. New crop ending stocks were raised 40 million bushels. World corn production was increased 5.1 million tons. Corn production was up for Ukraine, reflecting higher area. Global corn ending stocks were estimated at 310.5 million tons, up 5.3 million from May.
2022-23 US wheat production was upward revised 8 million bushels to 1.737 billion with an increase in winter wheat by that amount. USDA reduced Hared Red Winter and raised Winter White and Soft Red Winter. Combined other spring and durum was unchanged. Some of the trade was looking for a downward revision in other spring. US domestic use and exports were unchanged resulting in higher stocks by 8 million to 627 million. The all-wheat yield was upward revised 0.3 bushel to 46.9 bushels per acre. USDA lowered global wheat production due to a 2.5 million ton decrease for India, partially offset by an upward revision to Russia by 1 million tons to 81 million tons. World consumption was reduced by 1.5 million tons in large part to less feed use. USDA lowered India’s exports and raised Russia. Projected 2022-23 world ending stocks were lowered 0.2 million tons to 266.9 million, a six-year low.
Price outlook:
July corn is seen in a $7.25 and $8.25 range
December corn is seen in a wide $5.75-$8.50 range
Soybeans – November is seen in a wide $12.75-$16.50 range
Soybean meal – July $400-$445
Soybean oil – July 79.50-84.00
Chicago – July $9.50 to $12.00 range, December $8.50-$12.50
KC – July $10.50 to $12.75 range, December $8.75-$13.50
MN – July $10.75‐$13.00, December $9.00-$14.00
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
W: 312.604.1366
ICE IM: treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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FI_Update061022.pdf