PDF Attached
USDA released their November S&D report
Reaction: initially bearish soybeans and lessor extend grains. Largest surprise to us was the US soybean and corn yield/production estimate, both increasing from the previous month. The corn yield was up 0.4 bu/ac from October and soybeans also up 0.4 bu/ac. Trade was looking for lower yields for corn and soybeans. 2022-23 US soybean stocks were upward revised 20 million bushels and corn by 10 million. All-wheat US stocks were revised lower by 5 million bushels. USDA did not change US corn exports despite the slow start to commitments and inspections. USDA left Brazil corn and soybean production unchanged. For Argentina, they lowered soybeans by 1.5 million tons and left corn production unchanged. We thought that would be the other way around due to some producers shifting away from corn to soybeans. Argentina wheat production was taken down 1.5 million tons to 15.5 million tons. We think USDA is at least 2 million tons too high on Argentina wheat output.
Look for prices to trade sideways over the short term unless geopolitical headlines move the markets, such as a concrete decision on the Black Sea grain shipping deal by Russia, and/or major changes in weather patterns develop. The November USDA S&D otherwise was not that eventful. With USDA boosting US soybean production by an unexpected 33 million bushels, they had some room to lift crush higher by 10 million bushels to 2.245 billion, above 2.204 billion a year ago. US soybean meal domestic use was upward revised 250,000 short tons. SBO for biofuel use was left unchanged and food use was lifted higher by 150 million pounds. USDA raised corn for feed by 25 million bushels and left exports unchanged. USDA made minor changes in the US wheat balance.
USDA NASS briefing
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/Executive_Briefings/index.php
USDA OCE Secretary’s Briefing
https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity-markets/wasde/secretary-briefing
New Crop in brief
US soybean stocks 220 vs. 200 last month (20), 8 million vs. trade
US corn stocks 1182 vs. 1172 last month (10), -25 million vs. trade
US wheat stocks 571 vs. 576 last month (-5), -7 million vs. trade
WLD soy stocks 102.2 vs. 100.5 last month (1.7), 1.6 million vs. trade
WLD corn stocks 300.8 vs. 301.2 last month (-0.4), 0.2 million vs. trade
WLD wheat stocks 267.8 vs. 267.5 last month (0.3), 1.3 million vs. trade
Brazil Soy 152.0 vs. 152.0 last month (0), -0.2 million vs. trade
Arg. Soy 49.5 vs. 51.0 last month (-1.5), -1.1 million vs. trade
Brazil Corn 126.0 vs. 126.0 last month (0), -0.3 million vs. trade
Arg. Corn 55.0 vs. 55.0 last month (0), 0.9 million vs. trade
Attached PDF includes FI snapshot
Price outlook:
December corn is seen in a $6.50-$7.00 range. March $6.50-$7.50 range.
Soybeans – January $13.50-$15.00
Soybean meal – December $400-$435, January $400-$475
Soybean oil – December 73-77, January wide 67.00-76.00 range
Chicago – December $8.00-$9.00, March $8.00 to $10.00
KC – December $9.00-$10.15, March 8.50-$10.50
MN – December $9.00-$10.30, March $9.00 to $10.50
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
W: 312.604.1366
ICE IM: treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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Grain_Market_Snapshot110922.pdf