PDF Attached
Includes unchanged price projections
USDA released their December S&D report
Reaction: Neutral
USDA NASS briefing
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/Executive_Briefings/index.php
USDA OCE Secretary’s Briefing
https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity-markets/wasde/secretary-briefing
2022-23 crop year in brief
US soybean stocks 220 vs. 220 last month (0), -18 million vs. trade
US corn stocks 1257 vs. 1182 last month (75), 20 million vs. trade
US wheat stocks 571 vs. 571 last month (0), -5 million vs. trade
WLD soy stocks 102.7 vs. 102.2 last month (0.5), 0.5 million vs. trade
WLD corn stocks 298.4 vs. 300.8 last month (-2.4), -2.5 million vs. trade
WLD wheat stocks 267.3 vs. 267.8 last month (-0.5), -0.1 million vs. trade
Brazil Soy 152.0 vs. 152.0 last month (0), -0.6 million vs. trade
Arg. Soy 49.5 vs. 49.5 last month (0), 0.8 million vs. trade
Brazil Corn 126.0 vs. 126.0 last month (0), -0.5 million vs. trade
Arg. Corn 55.0 vs. 55.0 last month (0), 1.5 million vs. trade
USDA’s report was perceived neutral as prices did not change much after the report release. We look for the trade to focus on weather and demand fundamentals going forward. Largest surprise in today’s report was an unchanged Argentina corn and soybean outlook as the country is experiencing one of the worst droughts in 50 years.
Other highlights:
US SBO for biofuel was down 200 million pounds
US corn exports down 75 million bushels.
No changes to Argentina and Brazil soybean and corn production – a surprise for Argentina
US corn stocks down 75, no change in ethanol. No change in other US corn demand categories.
US soybean stocks unchanged and US wheat unchanged
No changes in US soybean and soybean meal S&D
US soybean oil stocks were upward revised 42 million, imports lowered 200, food upward revised 150, carry in down 8, biofuel down 200 as mentioned.
All wheat S&D unchanged, but SRW stocks were up 10, HRS down 5 and White wheat stocks down 5
Global corn production was down 6.5MMT and stocks down 2.4MMT
Global wheat production down 2.1MMT and stocks down 0.5
Global soybean production was up 0.6MMT and stocks up 0.5MMT
Argentina wheat production was downward revised 3.0MMT, Canada down 1.2, and Australia up 2.1MMT.
Ukraine corn crop was lowered 4.5 million tons to 27.0 million tons, down from 42.13 million tons for 2021-22.
USDA Wheat trade highlights
USDA grain trade highlights
Attached PDF includes FI snapshot
Price outlook:
March corn $6.00-$7.15 range. May $5.80-$7.10
Soybeans – January $14.00-$15.15, March $14.15-$15.25
Soybean meal – January $425-$480, March $4.00-$500
Soybean oil – January 57.00-68.50 range, March 55.00-69.00
Chicago – March $7.00 to $8.50
KC – March 7.75-$9.75
MN – March $8.25 to $10.00
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
W: 312.604.1366
ICE IM: treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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Grain_Market_Snapshot120922.pdf