FI Grain Market Update / NOPA 04/15/22

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Good morning.

 

NOPA reported a 181.8-million-bushel US March soybean crush, 0.2 million below expectations. We thought the report was bullish for soybean oil, neutral soybeans, and slightly bearish soybean meal.  Soybean oil stocks fell 164 million pounds below expectations at 1.908 billion pounds. Daily adjusted, the crush rate fell to 5.86 million bu/day from 5.89 million/day during February. The lower than anticipated stocks reflected a steep monthly drop in the soybean oil yield to 11.83 pounds per bushel versus 11.93 pounds reported for the month of February.  Soybean oil stocks at the end of March for all the major regions are up from end of March 2021, with exceptions of the far northwestern Corn Belt/upper Great Plains (MN, ND, SD, MT). The March soybean meal yield was 47.24, up from 46.99 previous month. Soybean meal production during March was the fifth largest, for any month, in our recorded history. We look for oil/meal spreading Sunday/Monday. Graphs attached.

 

 

Friday developments

·         Argentina truck drivers’ strike ended Thursday night.  It started Monday. Truckers are likely to see a 20 percent increase in pay. 

·         USDA under the 24-hour reporting system reported 838,000 tons of soybeans sold to China and unknown.

-389,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China. Of the total, 121,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year and 268,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

-272,000 metric tons of soybeans received during the reporting period for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

-177,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

·        Results of the previous two China soybean auctions have not been posted, at least from a major newswire we use. On Friday it was announced China looks for sell another 500,000 tons of soybeans during the April 18-23 workweek.

·         For the week, palm oil futures were up 9%, its largest weekly increase since Oct. 8, 2021.

·         Friday closes for Malaysian palm and China futures markets indicate soybean oil is led 40 points higher (adjusted) and meal $1.50 higher. It excludes the European cash markets. 

·         AmSpec reported Malaysian April 1-15 palm oil exports at 436,548 tons, down 23 percent from 567,637 tons during the March 1-15 period. ITS reported 472,181 tons from 585,277 tons, down 19.3 percent.

·         Russia’s sunflower oil export duty for the month of May will increase 19% or $58.90/ton to a maximum of $372.20/ton, highest since September 2021. 

·         Europe is on holiday Monday.

·         Ukraine’s AgMin updated their 2022 summer grain planting intentions to 14 million hectares, up from previous 13.4 million, and well down from 16.9 million planted in 2021.  This estimate is well above private forecasts.  The AgMin said producers have planted 146,400 hectares of spring wheat, 742,900 hectares of spring barley, 100,500 hectares of peas, 122,600 hectares of corn, 433,700 hectares of sunflower, 110,300 hectares of sugar beet and other crops. (Rueters)

·         APK-Inform estimates Ukraine could harvest 38.9 million tons of grain in 2022, almost 55% less than in 2021.

·         FranceAgriMer reported 8% of the corn crop had been planted, compared with 4% a week earlier and 16% year ago.

·         China corn futures are near a one-month high.

·         Bulgaria reported an outbreak of bird flu at an industrial farm in the village of Bogdanitsa, southern part of the country.

·         FranceAgriMer reported 92% of French soft wheat crop was in good or excellent condition for the week ending April 11, unchanged from the previous week and above 86 percent year ago.

 

 

NOPA graphs attached