FI Mid-Morning Grain Comments 08/30/21

PDF attached

 

I will be in and out of the office today tending to a personal matter. 

 

Hurricane
Ida is disrupting Gulf grain operations.  Wheat import demand remains very strong.  Some of the nearby futures spreads are collapsing.  USDA export inspections were overall poor. 

 

WASHINGTON,
August 30, 2021- Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 256,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

WORLD
WEATHER INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY, AUGUST 30, 2021

• Frost
  and freezes occurred this morning in northern Russia, but the impact should have been low.
  
• More
  of the same will occur over the next few days.
• Frost
  and freezes also occurred Saturday in eastern New South Wales, Australia.
  
• Argentina
  is expecting a few waves of rain this weekend into next week that will benefit future wheat development.
  
• Brazil
  will stay dry in this coming week north of central Parana while rain falls to the south.
  
• Eastern
  Australia wheat, barley and canola crop areas may get some needed rain Friday through the weekend benefiting Queensland crops most of all since they will be reproducing soon.
  
• Northwestern
  India will have opportunities for rain over the next ten days, especially in Gujarat where some crop improvement is expected.
• The
  heart of India will remain plenty moist.
• China
  will continue to see periods of locally heavy rain between the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers
• There
  is a chance for rain in parts of eastern Ukraine and Russia’s Volga Basin this week as areas to the east are still dry biased. Recent rain in southeastern Europe helped ease some dryness there.
• Hurricane
  Ida brought devastating wind and rain to southeastern Louisiana
• Sugarcane
  was negatively impacted in eastern production areas
• The
  bulk of cane produced in central and western parts of southern Louisiana was not seriously harmed
  
• Flooding
  has been significant in the New Orleans area and from Baton Rouge to Houma
  
• Tropical
  Storm Ida will be downgraded further to depression status later today over southern Mississippi
  
• Heavy
  rain and flooding will be the biggest impact from Mississippi to West Virginia
• Crop
  damage is expected to be low, although flooding and property damage is still expected to be significant in southern and central Mississippi and a part of western Alabama
  
• Flooding
  from the storm will also be significant in eastern Tennessee and from West Virginia into Pennsylvania and southern New England later this week
  
• Canada’s
  southwestern Prairies will experience restricted rainfall over the coming week to ten days
• Southern
  U.S. Plains will be dry this week except for a part of interior southern Texas
• Rain
  in the northern Plains and a part of the western Corn Belt this week will maintain good or improving late season crop conditions
• Western
  and southern Mexico will stay wet this week
• Tropical
  storm Nora produced excessive rain in several southwestern Mexico states during the weekend with one location in Colima reporting more than 11.00 inches through Sunday morning
  

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Aug. 30:

• Canada’s
  StatsCan releases production data for wheat, durum, canola, barley and soybeans
• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  crop conditions – corn, cotton, soybeans; spring wheat harvest, 4pm
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• U.K.
  public holiday: agriculture futures contracts closed on ICE Futures Europe

Tuesday,
Aug. 31:

• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid and received
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• HOLIDAY:
  Malaysia

Wednesday,
Sept. 1:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• Australia
  Commodity Index
• U.S.
  DDGS production, corn for ethanol, 3pm
• Malaysia
  August palm oil export data (tentative)
• USDA
  soybean crush, 3pm

Thursday,
Sept. 2:

• FAO
  World Food Price Index
• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• HOLIDAY:
  Vietnam

Friday,
Sept. 3:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• HOLIDAY:
  Vietnam

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

FND
delivery estimates:

 

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range

Wheat                 
316,844                 versus   400000-675000  range

Corn                     
562,549                 versus   600000-800000  range

Soybeans           
377,341                 versus   100000-300000  range

 

 

 

GRAINS
INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

                 
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING AUG 26, 2021

                           
— METRIC TONS —

————————————————————————-

                                                  
CURRENT     PREVIOUS 

             ———–
WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

 
GRAIN      08/26/2021  08/19/2021  08/27/2020    TO DATE     TO DATE  

 

BARLEY             
0         173       1,270        6,550        3,731 

CORN         
562,549     745,303     423,765   65,755,115   41,895,751 

FLAXSEED           
0           0           0           24          317 

MIXED              
0           0           0           48            0 

OATS               
0           0         100          100          900 

RYE                
0           0           0            0            0 

SORGHUM 
      74,186     128,581     162,996    7,101,350    4,964,788 

SOYBEANS     
377,341     239,957     820,655   59,278,994   43,234,627 

SUNFLOWER          
0           0           0          240            0 

WHEAT        
316,844     729,288     535,415    6,051,848    6,768,081 

Total      
1,330,920   1,843,302   1,944,201  138,194,269   96,868,195 

————————————————————————-

CROP
MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED;
 SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES
WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

 

Commitment
of Traders

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

 

Corn

·        
Corn is lower on favorable weekend weather and sharply lower soybeans along with poor export inspections. 

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of August 26, 2021 were 562,549 tons, below a range of trade expectations, below 745,303 tons previous week and compares to 423,765 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 284,506
tons, China for 138,681 tons, and Japan for 40,793 tons.

·        
CBOT corn open interest was down 31,309 contracts on Friday to 1.4 million contracts. 

·        
AgRural:  Brazil is estimated to plant first crop corn at 2.973 million hectares (7.3 million acres) this season. 

·        
South Africa sees the corn production for 2021 at 16.316 million tons, up 6.6% from the 15.300 million tons harvested last season.  The crop is expected to consist of 8.765 million tons of white maize, used for human consumption,
and 7.552 million tons of yellow maize, used mainly in animal feed (CEC). 

·        
China plans to buy more pork for reserves this week.  They have already secured 50,000 tons since July. 

 

Export
developments.

·        
Taiwan’s MFIG seeks up to 65,000 tons of corn on Tuesday for Nov/early Dec shipment. 

·        
South Korea’s KFA bought 66,000 (138,000 sought) tons of optional origin corn at $321.69/ton for arrival around November 25 and November 30.  It was thought to be SA or SAf origin. 

 

 

 

 

Soybeans

·        
The CBOT soybeans complex is lower led by the collapsed in the nearby soybean September contract due to head into delivery on Tuesday.  Slow US shipments are also weighing on the Sep contract as hurricane Ida, a slow moving storm,
hit the Gulf coast over the past 24-hours. Soybean oil, down more than 140 points in the nearby, is also pressuring soybeans.  Meal is lower despite a higher lead in offshore values overnight.  Look for risk off early this week but that could change depending
on what USDA shows for crop progress this afternoon.

·        
Stats Canada estimated the canola crop at a low 14.7 million tons, nearly 25 percent off of last year. 

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of August 26, 2021 were 377,341 tons, above a range of trade expectations, above 239,957 tons previous week and compares to 820,655 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 121,952
tons, China for 71,401 tons, and Japan for 60,784 tons.

·        
Ukraine sunflower oil exports are seen rising 18 percent to 6.35 million tons from 5.38 expected in 2020-21. 

·        
Offshore values this morning were leading soybean oil 4 points lower and meal $2.90 higher.

·        
Malaysian palm oil

·        
China cash crush margins were last positive 121 cents on our analysis versus 121 cents late last week and 80 cents around a year ago. 

·        
China

 

 

Export
Developments

• Under
  the USDA 24-hour announcement system, private exporters sold 256,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021-22 marketing year. 
  

 

 

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat is mixed with nearby MN lower on harvest pressure and a Canadian all-wheat production estimate coming in near expectations.  Chicago and KC are mixed on light fund buying and spreading against corn. 

·        
Global import demand remains firm with several tenders on deck.  Egypt bought Ukraine wheat and Algeria is in this Tuesday for milling wheat. 

·        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of August 26, 2021 were 316,844 tons, below a range of trade expectations, below 729,288 tons previous week and compares to 535,415 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 70,397
tons, Philippines for 63,813 tons, and Malaysia for 24,493 tons.

·        
Stats Canada estimated the all-wheat crop at a 14-year low of

·        
The USD was 3 points lower at the time this was written 

·        
December Paris wheat was up 0.75 euros at 247.50. 

·        
Russian wheat export prices were up $4/ton at the end of last week to $299/ton fob, according to IKAR. 

·        
Ukraine’s AgMin estimated the 80.6 million tons of grain in 2021, allowing for exports 60.68 million tons, including 32 million tons of wheat harvested and 37.1 million tons of corn produced. 

·        
Ukraine exported 7 million tons of grain since July 1, up 10% from 6.4 million tons during the same period last season, including 3.4 million tons of wheat and 1.18 million tons of corn.  2.4 million tons of barley also had been
exported. 

 

Export
Developments. 

·        
Egypt bought 180,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat for October 15 through October 25 shipment. 

• –
  60,000 tons Romanian wheat at $308.50 a ton FOB plus $29.60 freight (ocean shipping) totaling $338.10 a ton c&f
• –
  60,000 tons Ukrainian wheat at $304.25 plus $36.08 freight totaling $340.33 a ton c&f
• –
  60,000 tons Romanian wheat at $308.50 plus $34.43 freight totaling $342.93 a ton c&f

·        
Algeria seeks at least 50,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday for October shipment. 

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on September 2 for LH October through FH December shipment.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on September 1.

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons wheat on September 1.

·        
Turkey seeks 300,000 tons of milling wheat on September 2 for September 10 through October 10 shipment.  They last bought 11.5% and 12.5% wheat on August 4 at $297.40-$308.90/ton c&f. 

·        
Taiwan weeks 48,875 tons of US wheat on September 3 for October 15-Novmeber 1 shipment.  They last bought US wheat on August 6, various classes at various prices. 

·        
Pakistan seeks 550,000 tons of wheat on September 7 for October through November shipment. 

·        
Mauritius seeks 47,000 tons of wheat flour, optional origin, on Sept. 21 for various 2022 shipment.

 

Rice/Other

• Egypt
  bought 200,000 tons of raw sugar for Oct-Dec shipment. 
• South
  Korea seeks 42,200 tons of rice for arrival in South Korea between February 28 and April 2022.  20,000 tons of that is of US origin, rest optional .