FI Morning Grain Comments 01/20/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

USDA
24-hour: Private exporters reported sales of 220,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

USDA
export sales were good overall, exception soybean oil. CBOT nearby soybeans and soybean oil are higher while meal was lower at the time this was written. Corn is lower. Traders will be watching the rains Argentina is expected to see over the next two weeks.
US wheat futures are lower on follow through selling from Black Sea export competition and expectations for Russia to not curb exports during the remainder of the current crop season, a reversal from what the trade read into earlier this week after President
Putin said the country must control grain sales to ensure reserves. WTI
crude oil is higher, USD 44 points higher and US equities mixed. There were no major export developments.

 

 

A
Farm Futures survey calls for US 2023 soybean plantings to end up near 88.915 million acres, corn at 90.531 million acres, and all-wheat at 48.840 million acres. Spring wheat (including durum) was seen at 13.948 million acres and winter wheat at 34.892 million. 

 

 

 

 

Weather

Argentina
saw as expected rains across northern Santa Fe and central La Pampa. Argentina’s weather forecast is unchanged with rains favoring south Cordoba, La Pampa, Buenos Aires today; and Santa Fe, Entre Rios, eastern Buenos Aires over the weekend. The southwest areas
will benefit the most. Week 2 of Argentina’s weather forecast calls for additional rain bias central areas. Brazil will see rain across most of the growing areas through early next week. RGDS will remain on the drier side. Some disruptions to harvest progress
is expected. The US weather forecast is unchanged. The central and southern Great Plains will see a wintery mix through Saturday and again Tuesday.

 

 

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JANUARY 20, 2023

• Significant
  rain has evolved overnight from far western Buenos Aires into eastern La Pampa and extreme southern Cordoba
• This
  event has produced 0.50 to 1.50 inches of rain with local totals over 2.00 inches and it will advance to the east to impact much of Buenos Aires and a few immediate neighboring areas into Saturday – relief from dryness is expected
• Rain
  elsewhere in Argentina may not be as great for nearly a week, but a new wave of rain will impact southern Argentina during mid-week next week before a couple of other disturbances bring moisture to the central and north late next week through the following
  weekend.
• By
  the end of this month, most of Argentina will have received significant rain, but much of the moisture in this first week will be in the south
• Southern
  Brazil and Paraguay will experience restricted rainfall over the coming week to ten days, although not totally dry
• Some
  beneficial moisture is expected, though it will be erratic with some areas benefiting more than others
• Routinely
  occurring rainfall is expected in the remainder of Brazil supporting long term crop development, but maintaining some concern over the maturation and harvest of early season soybeans
• U.S.
  weather will be dominated by a new snow event in Kansas tonight into the weekend and a much larger winter storm producing significant snowfall and rain from the Delta, southeastern Kansas, eastern Oklahoma and eastern Texas to the eastern Great Lakes region
  and northern Atlantic Coast States Tuesday through Thursday – heavy snow and rain are expected
• Central
  and eastern U.S. cooling will occur most significantly late next week through the following weekend and then briefly warmer at the end of the month and into the first days of February
• There
  is potential for a more potent cool off for eastern North America during mid-February, possibly beginning in the second week of the month
• Not
  much change was noted for the remainder of the world overnight
• No
  threatening cold is seen in any major winter crop area in the Northern Hemisphere for a while
• Eastern
  India still has a good chance for rain next week
• Eastern
  Australia rainfall should increase as scattered showers and thunderstorms periodically this weekend into next week
• South
  Africa rainfall will slowly increase across summer crop areas
• Europe’s
  stormiest weather will mostly be confined to the central and eastern Mediterranean Sea region; including a part of the Balkan Countries
• North
  Africa is still expecting some rain, though interior Algeria, interior Tunisia and southwestern Morocco will not do well

Source:
World Weather and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Friday,
Jan. 20:

• Global
  Forum for Food and Agriculture, Berlin, Jan. 18-21

• Malaysia’s
  Jan. 1-20 palm oil exports
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options
• US
  net- export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• US
  cotton ginnings
• US
  cattle on feed

Monday,
Jan. 23:

• MARS
  monthly report on EU crop conditions
• Brazil’s
  Unica to release sugar output, cane crush data during the week (tentative)
• HOLIDAY:
  China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, New Zealand, Singapore, Vietnam

Tuesday,
Jan. 24:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• HOLIDAY:
  China, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Korea, Vietnam

Wednesday,
Jan. 25:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Malaysia’s
  Jan. 1-25 palm oil exports
• US
  cold storage data for pork, beef and poultry, 3pm
• National
  Coffee Association’s webinar on 2023 US coffee outlook
• USDA
  total milk production, 3pm
• US
  poultry slaughter, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  China, Hong Kong, Vietnam

Thursday,
Jan. 26:

• Paris
  Grain Conference, day 1
• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• USDA
  to release its outlook for world orange and orange-juice production
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• HOLIDAY:
  China, India, Australia, Vietnam

Friday,
Jan. 27:

• Paris
  Grain Conference, day 2
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options
• US
  cattle inventory, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  China

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
Export Sales

Good
sales were posted for corn, sorghum, soybean meal and all-wheat. Soybean and soybean oil sales were within expectations.

 

Diving
into the soybean export sales, it appears were there several switches. Of the 986,200 tons for 2022-23, it included China (507,000 MT, including 313,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 80,000 MT), Mexico (262,300 MT, including decreases
of 3,100 MT), Spain (244,300 MT, including 249,800 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 12,000 MT), Vietnam (67,200 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 200 MT), and Pakistan (66,000 MT), were offset
by reductions for unknown destinations (382,300 MT). Soybean meal sales included the Philippines, Spain, Ireland, and Chile.  Soybean exports were 299,200 tons. Soybean oil sales were again poor at 700 tons and shipments at 500 tons.

 

Corn
export sales of 1.132 million tons were up from 255,700 tons previous week and included Japan, Mexico and South Korea as primary buyers. China was in there for 71,400 tons but 68,000 tons were switched from unknown. Sorghum sales were a strong 189,000 tons,
a marketing year high, and appears all for China. All wheat sales of 473,100 tons were up from 90,800 tons previous week and included Mexico and various Asian countries.

 

 

 

Macros

Canadian
Retail Sales (M/M) Nov: -0.1% (est -0.5%; prevR 1.3%)

Canadian
Retail Sales Ex Auto (M/M) Nov: -0.6% (est -0.6%; prevR 1.6%)

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn
trimmed
some losses post USDA export sales report (good for corn and sorghum). News was light as traders will be watching the rain events for Argentina this weekend. The USD is higher. There were no major export developments announced overnight.

·        
US ethanol production for the week ending January 13 increased a more than expected 65,000 barrels to 1.008 million and stocks decreased 398,000 barrels to 23.402 million. A Bloomberg poll looked for weekly US ethanol production
to be up 41,000 thousand barrels stocks up 107,000 barrels. The recovery in US ethanol production was aided by above normal temperatures since late December and very good ethanol margins since the start of the year.

·        
Yesterday The Buenos Aires grains exchange cut its estimate for Argentina’s 2022-23 corn harvest to 44.5 million tons, down from 50 million tons previously and 52 million tons last year. Corn plantings are running 89 percent.

·        
Argentina’s BA Grains Exchange reported the combined good and excellent corn rating at 5 percent and poor condition at 48 percent. Last week they were 7 and 47 percent, respectively. Rosario last week lowered their corn estimate
to 45 million tons.

·        
Cattle on Feed is due out after the close.

 

 

Export
developments.

·        
Yesterday Egypt bought 50,000 tons of Romanian corn at $339 per ton c&f for shipment Feb. 10-25 and payment at sight. Some noted the specifications of the tender excluded many offers. Lowest offer earlier was $336/ton of Ukrainian
origin. Lowest US offer was $337.93/ton. Egypt tends to buy South American corn followed by Ukraine origin.

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT nearby soybeans and soybean oil are higher while meal was lower at the time this was written. Corn is lower. Traders will be watching the rains Argentina is expected to see over the next two weeks.

·        
USDA reported 220,000 tons of soybeans sold to unknown.

·        
Palm oil closed little higher overnight, ending the week up 1.6%.

·        
2022 China soybean imports were 91.08 million tons. Of that, 54.4 million tons were from Brazil, 29 million tons from the US, 3.65 from Argentina and 1.79 million tons from Uruguay.

·        
Yesterday Argentina BA Grains Exchange reported soybean and corn conditions worsened from the previous week.

·        
Cargo survey SGS reported Malaysian 1-20 January palm oil shipments at 654,888 tons, 29.1 percent below the 923,642 tons shipped during the December 1-20 period. ITS reported a 41 percent decrease to 589,308 tons and AmSpec a
38.5 percent decline to 566,561 tons.

·        
April palm futures were up 3 ringgit to 3892 cash up $7.50 at $952.

·        
China soybean futures were up 0.4%, meal 1.0% lower, soybean oil up 0.5%, and palm up 0.3%.

·        
Nearby Rotterdam vegetable oils were
down 10-15 euros from early yesterday morning. Rotterdam meal was 1-7 euros lower.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 73 points this morning (55 lower for the week to date) and meal $1.40 short ton
higher
($6.40 lower for the week).

·        
Argentina’s BA Grains Exchange reported the combined good and excellent soybean rating at 3 percent and poor condition at 60 percent. Last week they were 4 and 56 percent, respectively. Soybean plantings are running at 96 percent.

 

Export
Developments

·        
USDA reported private exporters reported sales of 220,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022-23 marketing year.

·        
Results are awaited for the Philippines seeking up to 45,000 tons of soybean meal. The soybean meal was sought for April 18 and May 25 shipment.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are lower on follow through selling from Black Sea export competition and expectations for Russia to not curb exports during the remainder of the current crop season, a reversal from what the trade read into earlier
this week after President Putin said the country must control grain sales to ensure reserves.

·        
There were no wheat export developments.

·        
USDA export sales were good for wheat.

·        
Paris March wheat was unchanged earlier at 284.75 per ton. 

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Japan seeks 70,000 tons of feed wheat and 40,000 tons of barley on January 25 for arrival in Japan by March 16.

·        
China plans to auction off 140,000 tons of wheat on February 1, that includes stocks from the 2014-2017 crop years.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported

 

 

 

USDA Export Sales

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  1/12/2023 

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	106.8	984.6	2,016.8	75.9	3,270.4	4,483.9	21.0	90.3
SRW	34.0	643.7	702.2	17.0	1,780.7	1,786.6	0.0	41.6
HRS	181.0	1,389.7	1,273.1	86.9	3,314.3	3,154.5	0.0	49.8
WHITE	152.9	1,231.5	783.2	129.0	2,630.7	2,160.7	14.0	14.3
DURUM	-1.5	119.7	54.6	0.0	168.4	112.7	0.0	1.5
TOTAL	473.1	4,369.2	4,829.8	308.9	11,164.6	11,698.3	35.0	197.5
BARLEY	0.0	4.9	18.0	0.0	6.7	12.5	0.0	0.0
CORN	1,132.1	12,028.6	25,583.6	715.7	11,099.7	16,962.2	87.0	1,248.4
SORGHUM	189.0	328.9	3,917.4	1.1	221.1	1,888.9	0.0	0.0
SOYBEANS	986.2	13,661.4	9,670.1	2,066.2	31,728.3	33,438.3	0.0	397.0
SOY MEAL	362.5	3,254.4	2,935.4	299.2	3,311.2	3,609.9	0.0	18.3
SOY OIL	0.7	18.3	213.9	0.5	20.0	254.6	0.0	0.6
RICE
L G RGH	2.0	123.3	178.1	5.8	197.8	600.6	0.0	0.0
M S RGH	0.0	13.4	10.4	0.0	13.5	3.3	0.0	0.0
L G BRN	0.1	8.1	5.6	0.1	7.9	27.6	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	0.0	36.1	67.6	0.7	7.8	16.8	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	0.6	141.3	78.8	8.2	306.1	407.3	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	-8.4	124.8	102.4	15.0	116.6	184.1	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	-5.6	446.9	442.8	29.8	649.8	1,239.7	0.0	0.0
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	209.4	4,867.3	7,864.2	183.1	4,201.1	3,403.1	26.9	1,230.1
PIMA	2.5	58.4	221.5	6.3	67.3	161.5	0.0	1.1

 

Export Sales Highlights   

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period January 6-12, 2023.

Wheat: 
Net sales of 473,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 99 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (124,100 MT, including decreases of 11,100 MT), South Korea (112,000 MT), the Philippines
(70,200 MT, including decreases of 900 MT), Japan (47,500 MT), and Honduras (40,000 MT), were offset by reductions for Panama (1,500 MT) and Guatemala (1,200 MT). Net sales of 35,000 MT for 2023/2024 were reported for Mexico (21,000 MT) and Japan (14,000 MT).
Exports of 308,900 MT were up 60 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to the Philippines (81,700 MT), China (68,100 MT), Japan (35,400 MT), Taiwan (33,400 MT), and Nigeria (29,200 MT).

Corn: 
Net sales of 1,132,100 MT for 2022/2023 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan (340,000 MT, including 56,800 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,300 MT), Mexico (271,000
MT, including decreases of 1,000 MT), South Korea (134,500 MT), China (71,400 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,300 MT), and Taiwan (70,200 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). Total net sales of 87,000 MT for 2023/2024
were for Japan. Exports of 715,700 MT were up 85 percent from the previous week, but down 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (290,500 MT), China (275,400 MT), Japan (55,500 MT), Costa Rica (32,300 MT), and Canada
(24,300 MT).

 

Barley: 
No net sales or exports were reported for the week.

Sorghum: 
Total net sales of 189,000 MT for 2022/2023–a marketing-year high–were unchanged from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. The destination was China. Exports of 1,100 MT were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 91
percent from the prior 4-week average. The destination was to Mexico.

Rice: 
Net sales reductions of 5,600 MT for 2022/2023–a marketing-year low–were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for El Salvador (1,500 MT), Canada (1,200 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Guatemala
(500 MT), Mexico (200 MT), and Belgium (200 MT), were more than offset by reductions primarily for Jordan (9,400 MT). Exports of 29,800 MT were up 46 percent from the previous week, but down 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily
to Japan (13,000 MT), Haiti (6,100 MT), Guatemala (5,700 MT), Canada (3,200 MT), and Taiwan (700 MT). 

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 986,200 MT for 2022/2023 were up 38 percent from the previous week and 48 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (507,000 MT, including 313,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 80,000 MT), Mexico
(262,300 MT, including decreases of 3,100 MT), Spain (244,300 MT, including 249,800 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 12,000 MT), Vietnam (67,200 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 200 MT), and
Pakistan (66,000 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (382,300 MT). Exports of 2,066,200 MT were up 28 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (1,366,900 MT),
Spain (244,300 MT), Mexico (161,500 MT), Vietnam (68,200 MT), and the Netherlands (58,600 MT). 

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2022/2023, the current outstanding balance of 300 MT, all South Korea.

Export
for Own Account:  For
2022/2023, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 1,500 MT, all Canada.

Soybean
Cake and Meal: 
Net sales of 362,500 MT for 2022/2023 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for the Philippines (54,400 MT, including decreases of 1,700 MT), Spain (50,000 MT), Ireland (48,900 MT, including 24,000
MT switched from the Philippines), Chile (45,000 MT), and Colombia (35,700 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Israel (6,000 MT). Exports of 299,200 MT were down 5 percent from the previous week, but up 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. The
destinations were primarily to the Philippines (95,900 MT), Ecuador (38,400 MT), Mexico (35,300 MT), Ireland (26,400 MT), and Japan (25,900 MT).

Soybean
Oil: 
Net sales of 700 MT for 2022/2023 were up 8 percent from the previous week, but down 63 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Canada (500 MT) and Mexico (200 MT). Exports of 500 MT were down 8 percent from the previous week and
70 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were to Canada (400 MT) and Mexico (100 MT).

Cotton: 
Net sales of 209,400 RB for 2022/2023 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (55,100 RB), Pakistan (43,600 RB, including decreases of 200 RB), Vietnam (42,500 RB, including 100 RB switched
from China), Turkey (25,600 RB, including decreases of 17,200 RB), and South Korea (18,700 RB), were offset by reductions for Mexico (2,500 RB). Net sales of 26,900 RB for 2023/2024 were primarily for Turkey (21,600 RB). Exports of 183,100 RB were up 22 percent
from the previous week and 48 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (60,200 RB), Pakistan (46,100 RB), Mexico (13,500 RB), Vietnam (12,600 RB), and Indonesia (7,000 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 2,500 RB for 2022/2023
were down 24 percent from the previous week, but up 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Vietnam (1,300 RB), Taiwan (400 RB), South Korea (300 RB), Bangladesh (200 RB), and Bahrain (100 RB). Exports of 6,300 RB were unchanged
from the previous week, but up 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to India (4,100 RB), Vietnam (900 RB), Turkey (400 RB), Japan (300 RB), and Peru (200 RB). 

Optional
Origin Sales:  For
2022/2023, the current outstanding balance of 9,300 RB, all Malaysia.

Export
for Own Account:  For
2022/2023, new exports for own account totaling 1,900 RB were to China. The current exports for own account outstanding balance of 122,300 RB are for China (92,000 RB), Vietnam (21,900 RB), Pakistan (6,500 RB), India (1,500 RB), and Indonesia (400 RB).

Hides
and Skins: 
Net sales of 564,200 pieces for 2023 were primarily for China (355,200 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 15,200 pieces), South Korea (65,700 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 1,700 pieces), Mexico (60,100 whole cattle hides, including decreases
of 5,000 pieces), Thailand (35,300 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 1,200 pieces), and Brazil (13,300 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 1,000 pieces). In addition, total net sales of 14,300 calf skins were for Italy. Exports of 439,500 whole
cattle hides exports were primarily to China (306,200 pieces), Mexico (48,200 pieces), South Korea (35,900 pieces), Thailand (20,200 pieces), and Brazil (16,300 pieces). 

 

Net
sales of 63,400 wet blues for 2023 were primarily for Italy (28,900 unsplit, including decreases of 300 unsplit), Thailand (18,200 unsplit, including decreases of 100 unsplit), China (6,700 unsplit), Mexico (5,400 unsplit), and Brazil (2,500 unsplit). Exports
of 119,300 wet blues were primarily to Italy (48,200 unsplit and 1,600 grain splits), China (24,000 unsplit), Vietnam (16,000 unsplit), Thailand (12,100 unsplit), and Taiwan (4,400 unsplit). Net sales reductions of 11,200 splits for 2023 were reported for
Hong Kong (9,300 pounds) and Vietnam (1,900 pounds). Exports of 43,600 splits were to China.

 

Beef: 
Net sales of 17,300 MT for 2023 were primarily for China (4,800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (4,100 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Japan (3,900 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Mexico (1,700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and
Taiwan (1,200 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 15,700 MT were primarily to Japan (5,200 MT), South Korea (3,400 MT), China (1,700 MT), Taiwan (1,600 MT), and Mexico (1,500 MT).

Pork: 
Net sales of 34,100 MT for 2023 were primarily for Mexico (11,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Canada (4,800 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), China (4,100 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), South Korea (3,700 MT, including decreases of 500 MT),
and Japan (3,500 MT, including decreases of 300 MT). Exports of 31,100 MT were primarily to Mexico (14,800 MT), China (4,100 MT), Japan (3,600 MT), South Korea (2,600 MT), and Canada (2,400 MT).