FI Morning Grain Comments 01/24/23

PDF attached

Private
exporters reported sales of 130,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022/2023 marketing year. News was again light. The USD is slightly higher, WTI down 1 cent and US equities leaning towards a lower open this morning.
Most US agriculture markets were rebounding after selling off Monday after rain fell across dry areas of Argentina. Meal is leading soybeans higher while soybean oil is lower from a reversal in product spreading. Grains are higher on technical buying. The
morning weather forecast still calls for Argentina to see rain through Friday, then late in the week into next week bias northern areas. Brazil will see rain on and off over the next week. RGDS will see the lightest amounts for the southern areas. The US Great
Plains will see precipitation bias southern areas. Malaysia is on holiday and back Wednesday. China is on holiday all week. Offshore values were leading SBO lower by about 14 points this morning and meal $4.70 short ton higher.

Weather

Map

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World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JANUARY 24, 2023

Snow
will fall significantly today and Wednesday from the Texas Panhandle through Oklahoma and ultimately through the lower and eastern U.S. Midwest

Travel
delays are likely and some livestock stress is possible.

Arctic
air is still expected to slip southward through Canada’s Prairies late this week and during the weekend before reaching the northern half of the U.S. Plains and upper Midwest during the weekend and it will linger into early next week.

Some
snow will precede the event and most wheat areas will be sufficiently protected from the cold by snow.

Argentina
is still expected to receive rain during the coming ten days with sufficient amounts to continue the summer crop improving trend.
Brazil
will get rain over the next ten days, but its frequency and intensity may still be a little higher than desired for soybean maturation and harvest progress in some areas.

Southern
Brazil precipitation will be restricted for a while in the coming ten days leading to some drying that may help early soybean harvesting and Safrinha crop planting, although the area that needs dry weather most may be in Mato Grosso

North
Africa rainfall will continue most significant in Algeria leaving interior Tunisia and parts of Morocco with an ongoing need for greater rain.
No
threatening cold weather is expected in Europe or Asia during the next couple of weeks.
Weather
conditions in eastern China will be relatively tranquil for a while with limited precipitation and mild to warm temperatures.
No
changes in India’s weather outlook occurred overnight with light rain expected in north-central parts of the nation and the greatest rain from Uttarakhand to Jammu and Kashmir
Australia’s
second week outlook remains wettest potentially in eastern sorghum and cotton areas.
South
Africa rainfall is still expected to increase next week after another several days of net drying this week.

Source:
World Weather and FI

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Tuesday,
Jan. 24:

EU
weekly grain, oilseed import and export data.
HOLIDAY:
China, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Korea, Vietnam

Wednesday,
Jan. 25:

EIA
weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
Malaysia’s
Jan. 1-25 palm oil exports
US
cold storage data for pork, beef and poultry, 3pm
National
Coffee Association’s webinar on 2023 US coffee outlook
USDA
total milk production, 3pm
US
poultry slaughter, 3pm
HOLIDAY:
China, Hong Kong, Vietnam

Thursday,
Jan. 26:

Paris
Grain Conference, day 1
USDA
weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
USDA
to release its outlook for world orange and orange-juice production.
Port
of Rouen data on French grain exports
HOLIDAY:
China, India, Australia, Vietnam

Friday,
Jan. 27:

Paris
Grain Conference, day 2
ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options
US
cattle inventory, 3pm
HOLIDAY:
China

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

Soybean
and
Corn Advisory

2022/23
Brazil Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 151.0 Million Tons

2022/23
Brazil Corn Estimate Unchanged at 125.0 Million Tons

2022/23
Argentina Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 39.0 Million Tons

2022/23
Argentina Corn Estimate Unchanged at 44.0 Million Tons

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range

Wheat
334,217 versus 250000-550000 range

Corn
727,643 versus 550000-1025000 range

Soybeans
1,805,744 versus 900000-1955000 range

Macros

Bank
Of England To Lift Rates To 4% On Feb 2, Finish At 4.25% In March – RTRS

European
Union €5b 3% 3/2053 Tap MS+86

US
Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Jan: -6.5 (prevR -12.8)

Corn

·
CBOT corn
futures
are higher on technical buying after wheat and soybeans rallied.

·
US agriculture officials have been addressing the Mexico GMO yellow corn import ban issue, citing it is insufficient and raised “grave concerns” if the government goes through with it.

·
AgriCensus noted Brazil exported 4.2 million tons of corn during the first three week of January, above the 2.7 million tons exported during the whole month of January 2022.

·
Anec sees Brazil’s January corn exports reaching 5.2 million tons versus 5.178 million previously estimated.

·
Two vessels of Ukrainian corn and barley left Ukraine for Israel and the Netherlands.

·
AgRural reported 1 percent of the Brazil winter corn seeding progress was complete.

·
USDA US corn export inspections as of January 19, 2023, were 727,643 tons, above a range of trade expectations, below 779,788 tons previous week and compares to 1,186,575 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 308,894
tons, Japan for 116,548 tons, and China for 71,250 tons.

Export
developments.

·
Under the 24-hour reporting system, USDA reported private exporters reported sales of 130,000 tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022-23 marketing year.

Soybeans

·
US soybeans are higher from a bull spread rally in soybean meal. Soybean oil is lower from a reversal in product spreading. Traders are citing a dead cat bounce in soybeans after “oversold” conditions were seen Monday.

·
There were 42 CBOT soybean registrations were cancelled Monday evening.

·
Brazil January to date soybean exports have slowed to less than 600,000 tons versus 2.4 million tons for the whole month of January 2022.

·
Anec sees Brazil’s January soybean exports reaching 1.356 million tons versus 1.999 million previously estimated. Soybean meal exports were projected at 1.521 million tons versus 1.587 million previously estimated.

·
Malaysia is on holiday though the 24^th, back Wednesday.

·
China is on holiday all week.

·
ITS reported Indonesia’s December palm oil exports fell 13.7 percent from November to 2.33 million tons, which included 409,673 tons of crude palm oil.

·
Nearby Rotterdam vegetable oils were
mixed from early yesterday morning. Rotterdam meal was mostly 2-4 euros higher.

·
Offshore values were leading SBO lower by about 14 points this morning and meal $4.70 short ton
higher.

·
USDA US soybean export inspections as of January 19, 2023, were 1,805,744 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 2,190,371 tons previous week and compares to 1,383,251 tons year ago. Major countries included China for
1,197,053 tons, Germany for 168,890 tons, and Mexico for 123,860 tons.

Export
Developments

·
The CCC seeks 3,770 tons of vegetable oils on February 1 for last half March shipment.

Wheat

·
US wheat futures are higher led by high protein KC and MN wheat.

·
Matif wheat saw a good amount of volume Monday of 22,943 contracts.

·
Paris March wheat was 2.25 euros higher earlier at 281.50 per ton, after trading yesterday at its lowest level since early March 2022.

·
Jordan’s wheat reserves are large enough to cover one year’s worth of consumption.

·
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of January 19, 2023, were 334,217 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 325,643 tons previous week and compares to 417,638 tons year ago. Major countries included Korea Rep for
90,749 tons, Mexico for 76,974 tons, and Japan for 56,000 tons.