FI Morning Grain Comments 01/25/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning. 

 

We
are seeing ongoing volatility in outside markets. Equities are lower, WTI crude oil higher while the USD up about 28 points.  We see no major changes to the SA weather outlook. A mix of rain and sunshine will occur in Argentina during the next two weeks. Brazil’s
interior southern and some center south crop areas will see rain over the next couple of weeks, with some areas getting too much precipitation.  Malaysian palm futures traded higher by 34 ringgit to 5,439. Offshore values this morning were leading CBOT soybean
oil about 47 points higher and meal $1.00 higher.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JANUARY 25, 2022

• A
  good mix of rain and sunshine will occur in Argentina during the next two weeks.
  
• Even
  though drought continues in Argentina the topsoil is rated quite favorably and subsoil moisture is improving via percolation which should lead to favorable crop weather for the next couple of weeks even though the greatest rain may be over for a while.
  
• Paraguay,
  and immediate neighboring areas of Argentina and Brazil continued to deal with extreme conditions Monday.
  
• These
  areas have been dealing with limited rain and excessive heat for an extended period of time and there is no way that Paraguay will be capable of producing much crop.
  
• Relief
  is expected in Paraguay, northeastern Argentina and southwestern Brazil during the next ten days to two weeks, but each round of rain will not be enough to fix long term moisture deficits even through improvements in topsoil moisture are likely and some new
  crop development will take place.
• Brazil’s
  interior southern and some center south crop areas may get a little too much rain in the next couple of weeks slowing soybean maturation and harvest progress and also impacting the advancement of Safrinha crop planting at times.
  
• Drier
  weather may be needed eventually, but recent weather has been mostly good for these areas.
  
• Not
  much change was noted in the rest of the world overnight.
• The
  U.S. Plains and upper Midwest are a little drier in some of the forecast model runs for late next week and that was a needed change.
  
• A
  more active week two weather pattern in the U.S. will bring wetter conditions back to the Midwest and to far northern and eastern fringes of hard red winter wheat areas. The Delta will trend wetter in week two as well.
  
• Western
  Europe may trend a little wetter after day ten
• Northwestern
  Africa will remain dry biased for an extended period.
• There
  is no threatening weather for winter crops in eastern Europe, the western CIS, China or India and most of those areas will see favorable conditions prevailing.
  
• Eastern
  Australia has potential for periodic rainfall during the next two weeks
• South
  Africa will see some net drying for a little while. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
Jan. 25:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Malaysia’s
  Jan. 1-25 palm oil exports
• Moscow
  Agros Expo conference, Jan. 25-27

Wednesday,
Jan. 26:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• HOLIDAY:
  Australia, India

Thursday,
Jan. 27:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Paris
  Grain Day conference, Jan. 27-28
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports

Friday,
Jan. 28:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, ~1:30pm
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• U.S.
  cattle on feed, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                                    

Wheat                 
400,973                 versus   250000-450000  range

Corn                     
1,115,731             versus   900000-1600000                range

Soybeans           
1,297,802             versus   1200000-1900000             range

 

Corn
and Soybean Advisor

2021/22
Brazil Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 134.0 Million Tons

2021/22
Brazil Corn Estimate Unchanged at 112.0 Million Tons

2021/22
Argentina Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 43.0 Million Tons

2021/22
Argentina Corn Estimate Unchanged at 51.0 Million Tons

 

Macros

US
Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Regional Business Activity Index Dec: -16.2 (prevR 27.3)

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn is mixed with bull spreading in focus. The market appears to be following higher wheat but look for gains to be limited from another rally in the USD.  South American crop estimates are starting to flatten out, a sign
the recent rains benefited Brazil’s late first planted crops that are still maturing and aided second crop plantings. The rain helped Argentina soybeans but there is speculation they were too late for the first and primary corn crop. 

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of January 20, 2022 were 1,115,731 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 1,237,248 tons previous week and compares to 1,403,063 tons year ago. Major countries included China for 347,449
tons, Japan for 340,530 tons, and Mexico for 305,448 tons.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans are mostly higher, meal lower and soybeans catching a bid from higher WTI and palm oil. News is light and SA weather looks good over the next week.  India was said to be seeking alternative vegetable oils, recently
buying 60,000 tons of sunflower oil from Russia and Argentina.

·        
SGS reported Malaysian palm oil export for the Jan 1-25 period at 847,520 tons, down 36.7 percent from the same period month earlier. AmSpec reported 829,022 tons, down from 1.24 million tons for the same period month earlier.
ITS reported a 33 percent decrease to 876,056 tons.

·        
Malaysian palm futures traded higher by 34 ringgit to 5,439.

·        
Malaysian cash CPO was down $5.00/ton to $1,312.50.

·        
China soybean futures traded 1.2% higher, meal 0.6% lower, SBO down 2% and palm 1.9% lower. 

·        
Rotterdam soybean oil for the Feb-Apr position was about 10 euros lower and Rotterdam rapeseed oil 15 euros lower from this time previous session. SA soybean meal when imported into Rotterdam was running mostly 1-9 euros lower.

·        
Offshore values this morning were leading CBOT soybean oil about 47 points higher and meal $1.00 higher.

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of January 20, 2022 were 1,297,802 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 1,726,719 tons previous week and compares to 2,103,465 tons year ago. Major countries included China for
640,876 tons, Italy for 140,872 tons, and Mexico for 101,039 tons.

 

Export
Developments

·        
Turkey’s state grain board TMO seeks about 6,000 tons of crude sunflower oil on Jan. 28 for shipment between Feb. 8 and Feb. 25.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are higher from ongoing concerns over the Ukraine/Russian situation. 

·        
EU wheat basis the March position was 6.75 euros higher at 287.75 eros a ton.

·        
Matif wheat options were active yesterday with over 16k lots trading.

·        
The EU awarded 77,833 tons of Ukraine wheat imports under quota, with 329,220 tons remaining.

·        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of January 20, 2022 were 400,973 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 384,291 tons previous week and compares to 571,677 tons year ago. Major countries included Philippines
for 123,098 tons, Nigeria for 50,254 tons, and Jamaica for 34,208 tons.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Japan seeks 47,841 tons of food wheat later this week from Australia. 

·        
Iran’s SLAL seeks 60,000 tons of barley, 60,000 tons of corn and 60,000 tons of soybean meal on Wednesday for Feb/Mar shipment.

·        
Results awaited: The Philippines seeks 36,000 tons of Australian wheat for April 1-30 shipment.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on January 26 for July – August shipment. 

·        
Jordan retendered on wheat seeking 120,000 tons on February 1 for July – August shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
South Korea seeks 46,344 tons of rice from (mainly) China on Jan 27.