FI Morning Grain Comments 02/08/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning. 

 

Private
exporters reported the following activity:

132,000
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year

332,000
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022/2023 marketing year

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR February 8, 2022

• Only
  one rain event is expected in Argentina and southern Brazil during the next ten days and that is expected Thursday and Friday in Argentina and this weekend in Brazil.
  
• The
  moisture will be welcome, but not well distributed benefiting some areas more than others.
  
• Concern
  about returning moisture stress will be on the rise during this period.
• Some
  other precipitation may occur in the Feb. 16-22 period, but it is unclear how significant that may or may not be.
  
• Center
  west and northern parts of center south Brazil will continue to deal with frequent rain and wet field conditions resulting in more worry over crop conditions and harvest progress.
  
• The
  wettest weather may impact coffee and sugarcane areas of Minas Gerais more than soybean and corn country, although some of the grains will be impacted.
  
• The
  U.S. outlook is wetter today in hard red winter wheat areas beginning around Feb. 16 and that storm system will move into the eastern Midwest and Delta shortly thereafter.
  
• The
  storm may be relocated to the southeast in future model runs.
• California
  is unlikely to see great volumes of moisture for the next two weeks maintaining or raising concern over spring runoff potentials.
  
• Warmer
  than usual weather is expected this week in the central and western U.S. with warming likely in the southeastern U.S. next week.
  
• Not
  much change was noted elsewhere in the world
• Limited
  rain will fall over the next ten days in Spain, Morocco and northwestern Algeria
• Improved
  rain is expected in France during the late weekend and next week
• Routinely
  occurring snow and rain events will impact western Russia and Ukraine, although the precipitation will be light in Ukraine and Russia’s Volga Basin
• There
  is no threatening cold in Europe or Asia during the next ten days
• Southern
  China will continue to see waves of snow and rain maintaining wet field conditions from the Yangtze River Basin southward to the coast
• India’s
  weather will be dry outside of a few showers in the north today
• Eastern
  Australia precipitation will be minimal for the next ten days
• South
  Africa will dry down
• Indonesia
  and Malaysia rainfall will be plentiful with local areas of flooding infrequently
• New
  Zealand will become plenty moist in the next ten days after recent drying

Source:
World Weather Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
Feb. 8:

• Canada’s
  StatCan releases wheat, durum, canola, soybeans and barley stockpile data, 8:30am
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data

Wednesday,
Feb. 9:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, 12pm

Thursday,
Feb. 10:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board’s data on palm oil reserves, output and exports
• French
  agriculture ministry releases 2022 winter grain and rapeseed planting estimates
• Brazil’s
  Conab report on yield, area and output of corn and soybeans
• Brazil’s
  Unica releases sugar output and cane crush data (tentative)
• IKAR
  grain conference in Moscow
• Vietnam’s
  customs department to publish data on coffee, rice and rubber exports in January
• Malaysia’s
  Feb. 1-10 palm oil exports

Friday,
Feb. 11:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, ~1:30pm
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• March
  ICE white sugar contract expiry
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                                    

Wheat                 
417,750                 versus   250000-450000  range

Corn                     
1,053,202             versus   975000-1300000                range

Soybeans           
1,217,991             versus   1000000-1850000             range

 

Soybean
and Corn Advisory

2021/22
Brazil Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 130.0 Million Tons

2021/22
Argentina Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 42.0 Million Tons

2021/22
Paraguay Soybean Estimate Lowered 1.0 mt to 5.0 Million

2021/22
Brazil Corn Estimate Unchanged at 112.0 Million Tons

2021/22
Argentina Corn Estimate Unchanged at 51.0 Million Tons

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
Corn is lower but gaining on soybeans. USD is firmer this morning with equities mixed as traders wait for more developments over the Ukraine/Russian situation.  Argentina and southern Brazil will remain dry with exception of late
workweek rain event. 

·        
Second day of the Goldman roll.

·        
BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 521,203 TNS IN FEBRUARY VS 447,404 TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of February 03, 2022, were 1,053,202 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 1,035,783 tons previous week and compares to 1,586,642 tons year ago. Major countries included Japan for
300,952 tons, Mexico for 253,434 tons, and China for 208,779 tons.

 

Export
developments.

·        
Turkey’s TMO bought 325,000 tons of corn for Feb 25 and March 15 shipment.  Prices ranged from $304.70 to $315.80/ton. 

·        
Taiwan’s MFIG seeks up to 65,000 tons of corn on Thursday, Feb 10 for April 1-20 shipment. 

 

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans are lower led by the nearby contracts in a turnaround trade. Products are mixed with soybean meal extending gains and soybean down sharply after palm oil futures fell overnight. 

·        
StatsCan December 31 Canadian canola stocks were near expectations at 7.561 million tons, but well below 13.3 million tons a year ago, or down 43 percent. 

·        
There are rumors China might be soon releasing 300,000 tons of soybean oil and 1.7 million tons of soybeans out of stocks.

·        
Only one rain event is expected in Argentina and southern Brazil during the next ten days and that is expected Thursday and Friday in Argentina and this weekend in Brazil. Less than an inch is expected across southern Brazil.
Argentina will see trace amounts up to mostly half an inch of rain through Monday. 

·        
BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 7.500 MLN TNS IN FEBRUARY VS 9.923 MLN TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

·        
China – meal rallied 2 percent and SBO fell 1.9%.

 

·        
Malaysia palm futures were 87 MYR lower with cash down $10/ton at $1375.00/ton.

·        
Offshore values this morning were leading CBOT soybean oil about 105 points lower and meal $1.30 short ton lower. 

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of February 03, 2022 were 1,217,991 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 1,415,892 tons previous week and compares to 1,906,263 tons year ago. Major countries included China for
765,329 tons, Egypt for 93,691 tons, and Japan for 84,607 tons.

 

Export
Developments

• USDA
  announced private exporters sold 132,000 tons of soybeans to China and 332,000 tons to unknown for new crop delivery. 
  
• Ukraine
  will supply Turkey with 50,000 tons of sunflower seeds with zero export duty. 
  

 

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures started lower in Chicago and KC but rebounded from strength in Minneapolis per lower than expected Canadian wheat stocks at the end of 2021.    

·        
StatsCan December 31 all-wheat stocks decreased a more than expected 1.736 million tons from an average trade guess to 15.564 million tons, 38 percent below Dec 31, 2020. 

·        
EU wheat futures are trading down 2.50 euros at 263.50 euros per ton at the time this was written.

·        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of February 03, 2022 were 417,750 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 376,524 tons previous week and compares to 485,545 tons year ago. Major countries included Korea Rep for
95,357 tons, Mexico for 76,648 tons, and Japan for 70,973 tons.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Jordan’s state grain buyer bought 60,000 tons of optional origin animal feed barley at an estimated $301.25 a ton c&f for shipment in the first half of July.

·        
Syria seeks 200,000 tons of wheat on February 14, open for 15 days.

·        
The Philippines seeks feed wheat from Australia and soybean meal from Argentina on February 11. Amounts are unknown.

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of wheat set to close February 14.

 

Rice/Other

·        
(Bloomberg) — U.S. 2021-22 cotton ending stocks seen at 3.29m bales, slightly above USDA’s previous est., according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of ten analysts.

Estimates
range from 3.0m to 3.7m bales

Global
ending stocks seen at 84.95m bales vs 85.01m bales