FI Morning Grain Comments 02/14/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

US
CPI (M/M) Jan: 0.5% (est 0.5%; prevR 0.1%)

US
CPI Ex Food and Energy (M/M) Jan: 0.4% (est 0.4%; prevR 0.4%)

US
CPI (Y/Y) Jan: 6.4% (est 6.2%; prev 6.5%)

US
CPI Ex Food and Energy (Y/Y) Jan: 5.6% (est 5.5%; prev 5.7%)

 

Lower
trade in soybean meal is weighing on soybeans. The reversal in meal/oil spreads did lift most SBO contracts higher. Corn and KC wheat found a bid while nearby Chicago wheat and MN wheat turned lower. Any losses could be limited from Black Sea production (2023)
and grain shipping concerns. Lower WTI could create a two-sided trade for soybean oil and corn. The USD, however, was down 58 points as of 7:51 am CT. As expected, Mexico dropped their plans to ban GMO yellow corn imports for animal feed and industrial use.

 

 

 

 

Weather

The
trade will be monitoring rain across Brazil this week with ongoing planting and harvesting delays from too much rain. Mato Grosso, MGDS, south Minas, Sao Paulo, Parana, Santa Catarina, and north RGDS will all see rain this week. Argentina rain should favor
Cordoba, Santa Fe, Enter Rios, Buenos Aires through today. Far western US Great Plains will see snow this week, which includes eastern CO and KS.

 

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR FEBRUARY 14, 2023

• Southern
  Argentina will be dry or mostly dry through the end of this month
• Brazil
  will continue too wet for the next two weeks in Parana, Sao Paulo, southern Minas Gerais and a part of Mato Grosso do Sul
• Mato
  Grosso will see good harvest and planting weather at times the remainder of this week, but rain will increase this weekend and next week slowing field progress once again
• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat areas will get some welcome precipitation from snow tonight and Wednesday, but it will not be drought busting moisture; additional precipitation will be needed
• Plenty
  of moisture is expected to fall across the U.S. Midwest, Delta and southeastern States over the next two weeks maintaining abundant soil moisture
• Europe
  continues unusually dry raising worry over long term soil moisture ahead of spring crop development
• North
  Africa rain will be greatest in southwestern Morocco, but there are no crops there that will benefit from the moisture
• India
  will stay dry biased over the next two weeks
• Eastern
  China will see brief periods of rain and snow over the next two weeks, although most of the precipitation will be light
• Waves
  of snow will accumulate significantly from eastern Belarus and the Baltic States to a part of Russia’s Southern Region during the next two weeks
• Eastern
  Australia still needs significant rain to fall in unirrigated areas of Queensland and New South Wales
• Eastern
  South Africa will be wet in the next ten days while the west remains in need of greater rain

Source:
World Weather and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Tuesday,
Feb. 14:

• Suspended
  – CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options

• France
  farm ministry’s report on output in 2022 and winter plantings in 2023
• New
  Zealand food prices
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data

Wednesday,
Feb. 15:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Malaysia’s
  Feb. 1-15 palm oil export data
• FranceAgriMer’s
  monthly grains balance sheet report

Thursday,
Feb. 16:

• International
  Grains Council’s monthly report
• USDA
  weekly net- export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Russia
  Grain Conference, Sochi

Friday,
Feb. 17:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer’s
  weekly crop conditions reports

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range

Wheat                 
472,327                 versus   250000-600000  range

Corn                     
511,506                 versus   360000-800000  range

Soybeans           
1,555,166             versus   650000-1920000                range

 

Soybean
and Corn Advisory

2022/23
Brazil Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 151.0 Million Tons

2022/23
Argentina Soybean Estimate Lowered 2.0 mt to 36.0 Million

2022/23
Brazil Corn Estimate Lowered 2.0 mt to 123.0 Million

2022/23
Argentina Corn Estimate Lowered 1.0 mt to 43.0 Million

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn futures
are higher in the nearby contracts this morning on Black Sea shipping concerns. To extend the grain shipping deal, Russia would like to see some sanctions lifted.

·        
Paris corn futures are trading near a one-year high, and near parity to Paris wheat futures, basis the March positions.

·        
Mexico will disregard their plan to ban GMO corn imports for feed and industrial use but will still phase out genetically modified corn for human consumption as well as the herbicide glyphosate. Mexico depends on about 17 million
tons of GMO yellow corn from the US, most of it used for feed. About 18% to 20% of the corn Mexico imports from the United States is white corn, accord to Reuters.

·        
Bloomberg: The Biden administration plans to sell more crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with deliveries estimated to happen between April and June.

 

Export
developments.

• None
  reported

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans are
lower following a reversal in soybean meal. Soybean oil was unchanged to moderately higher. The weakness in WTI crude oil should create a two-sided trading environment for soybean oil. News was light. The morning weather forecast turned little more favorable
for South America.

·        
11 soybean registrations were cancelled yesterday evening, leaving 577 left.

·        
Malaysia April palm futures were up 33 ringgit to 3956 and cash was up $2.50/ton to $955.00/ton. 

·        
China soybeans decreased 1.1%, meal down 0.3%, SBO up 0.2% and palm oil futures down 0.2%.

·        
Nearby Rotterdam vegetable oils were
mixed from this time yesterday morning and meal mostly $2-3 euros lower.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 80 points this morning and meal $6.10 short ton
lower. 

 

Export
Developments

·        
None reported

 

 

Wheat

·        
Chicago wheat futures turned lower but remain near a 6-week high from ongoing Black Sea grain shipping concerns as traders expect fighting to intensify. KC was unchanged to higher and MN lower. With the steep dive in the USD,
look for losses, if any, to be limited, unless the funds step in and take profits.

·        
Paris March wheat was down 0.75 euro earlier at 298 per ton. 

·        
Ukraine warned over the risk of mines potentially drifting along the coastline near Odesa. The mines that are anchored could become lose, Ukraine said.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Japan’s AgMin seeks 76,203 tons of food wheat from the US, Canada and Australia, later this week for March 21-May 31 loading.

·        
Japan in a SBS import tender seeks 70,000 tons of feed wheat and 40,000 tons oof feed barley on Feb 15 for loading by May 31.

 

Rice/Other

·        
The Philippines are in for sugar.