FI Morning Grain Comments 02/15/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Private
exporters reported sales of 213,370 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

The
USD was up sharply earlier this morning by 65 points, WTI 73 cents lower and US equities lower. Many outside commodity markets were trading lower. Global economic concerns were noted. UK’s CPI was up 10.1% from year ago, less than expected but indicates a
potential rate hike for that country. CBOT oilseeds and most grain contracts are lower this morning on technical selling. News was light. Brazil soybean harvesting pressure and improving SA and US weather was noted. NOPA US soybean crush is due out later this
morning. A Reuters poll calls for the January NOPA crush to end up near 181.7 million bushels, up 2.3% percent from December. . End of January stocks are seen at 1.906 billion pounds, up 6.4% from the end of December and down 5.9% from 2.026 billion at the
end of January 2022. Offshore values were leading SBO lower by about 118 points this morning and meal $1.20 short ton lower.

 

A
Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 4,000 thousand barrels to 1004k (980-1020 range) from the previous week and stocks up 115,000 barrels to 24.532 million.

 

We
had to make an adjustment to our daily estimate of funds estimate due to CFTC report delays.

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR FEBRUARY 15, 2023

• Not
  much changed in the world overnight
• Southern
  Argentina will be dry or mostly dry through the end of this month
• Brazil
  will continue too wet for the next two weeks in Parana, Sao Paulo, southern Minas Gerais and a part of Mato Grosso do Sul
• Mato
  Grosso will see good harvest and planting weather at times the remainder of this week, but rain will increase this weekend and next week slowing field progress once again
• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat areas will get some snow today with 3 to 7 inches of accumulation expected and locally more; including eastern Colorado, much of western and central Kansas and southern Nebraska
• No
  drought busting moisture is likely, but the moisture from melting snow will help improve winter crops later this season
• Plenty
  of moisture is expected to fall across the U.S. Midwest, Delta and southeastern States over the next two weeks maintaining abundant soil moisture
• Europe
  continues unusually dry raising worry over long term soil moisture ahead of spring crop development
• North
  Africa rain will be greatest in southwestern Morocco, but there are no crops there that will benefit from the moisture
• India
  will stay dry biased over the next two weeks
• Eastern
  China will see brief periods of rain and snow over the next two weeks, although most of the precipitation will be light
• Waves
  of snow will accumulate significantly from eastern Belarus and the Baltic States to a part of Russia’s Southern Region during the next two weeks
• Eastern
  Australia still needs significant rain to fall in unirrigated areas of Queensland and New South Wales
• Eastern
  South Africa will be wet in the next ten days while the west remains in need of greater rain

Source:
World Weather and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Wednesday,
Feb. 15:

• Suspended
  – CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Malaysia’s
  Feb. 1-15 palm oil export data
• FranceAgriMer’s
  monthly grains balance sheet report

Thursday,
Feb. 16:

• International
  Grains Council’s monthly report
• USDA
  weekly net- export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Russia
  Grain Conference, Sochi

Friday,
Feb. 17:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer’s
  weekly crop conditions reports

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

Macros

U.S.
Retail Sales’ 3% Jump In January Is Fastest Monthly Pickup In 22 Months

US
Retail Sales Advance (M/M) Jan: 3.0% (est 2.0%; prev -1.1%)

US
Retail Sales Ex Auto (M/M) Jan: 2.3% (est 0.9%; prev -1.1%)

US
Retail Sales Ex Auto And Gas Jan: 2.6% (est 0.9%; prev -0.7%)

US
Retail Sales Control Group Jan: 1.7% (est 1.0%; prev -0.7%)

US
Empire Manufacturing Feb: -5.8 (est -18.0; prev -32.9)

US
Retail Sales Ex Auto (M/M) Jan: 2.3% (est 0.9%; prevR -0.9%)

US
Retail Sales Ex Auto And Gas Jan: 2.6% (est 0.9%; prevR -0.4%)

Canadian
Manufacturing Sales (M/M) Dec: -1.5% (est -1.5%; prevR -0.2%)

Canadian
Wholesale Trade Sales (M/M) Dec: -0.8% (est -1.6%; prevR -0.7%)

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn futures
are lower from widespread commodity selling, higher USD, lower WTI and weakness in US equities. EIA ethanol production will be out mid-morning. A drop in production could add to the bearish undertone. However, margins are good, and traders are looking for
an increase in output.

·        
For options, several ATM April and May puts were sold over the past day, including overnight.

·        
Brazil’s Anec estimated February corn exports at 2.116 MMT from 2.292 seen previous week.

·        
A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 4,000 thousand barrels to 1004k (980-1020 range) from the previous week and stocks up 115,000 barrels to 24.532 million.

 

Export
developments.

• USDA
  reported private exporters reported sales of 213,370 tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans,
meal and soybean oil all lower from weakness in outside markets and Brazil soybean harvest pressure. NOPA is due out at 11:00 am CT.
A
Reuters poll calls for the January NOPA crush to end up near 181.7 million bushels, up 2.3% percent from December. The range was 177.0 to 187.0 million bushels. End of January stocks are seen at 1.906 billion pounds, up 6.4% from the end of December and down
5.9% from 2.026 billion at the end of January 2022. Stocks ranged from 1.816 billion to 2.050 billion pounds.

·        
The drought in Argentina has Asian buyers looking for soybean meal elsewhere. India Feb-May soybean meal shipments were estimated to grow to 500,000 tons, according to a Reuter article. Oct-Jan soybean meal exports were up 65
percent to 631,000 tons from the previous year. Oct-Sep 2021-22 total soybean meal exports were 644,000 tons. Indian soymeal is being offered for around $580 to $585 per ton on a free-on-board (FOB) basis for March shipments, compared to $598 offered by Argentina.
(Reuters)

·        
Ukraine has increased exports of soybeans. January soybean exports were 406,000 tons, highest for any month in three years. 2022 soybean production was 3.7 million tons for Ukraine, highest since 2017. 2022 total soybean exports
were nearly 2 million tons.

·        
Malaysian palm oil ended lower from a slowdown in shipments during the last 5 days relative to the 1-10 period. AmSpec reported February 1-15 palm oil shipments at 437,327 tons versus 401,749 tons previous month. ITS reported
an 18.4 percent increase to 484,950 tons from 409,731 tons FH last month.

·        
Malaysia May position palm futures were down 17 ringgit to 3944 and April cash was down $5.00/ton to $950.00/ton. 

·        
China soybeans increased 1.3%, meal down 0.5%, SBO down 0.4% and palm oil futures up 0.4%.

·        
Nearby Rotterdam vegetable oils were
down 15-20 euros from this time yesterday morning and meal mostly $4.00-4.50 euros lower.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO lower by about 118 points this morning and meal $1.20 short ton
lower. 

·        
Agroconsult estimated Brazilian soybean production at 153 million tons for 2022-23, down from previous 153.4 million tons.

·        
Brazil’s Anec estimated February soybean exports at 9.390 MMT from 9.693 seen previous week. SBM was pegged at 1.860 MMT from 1.740 MMT previous week.

 

Export
Developments

·        
None reported

 

 

 

 

Wheat

·        
Chicago wheat futures are mostly lower on widespread commodity selling and higher USD, but ongoing Black Sea concerns and US drought conditions are limiting losses.

·        
The USDA Attaché estimated 2022-23 India wheat crop at 100 million tons, 3 million tons below USDA official.  This contradicts India’s AgMin numbers. Yesterday India’s government estimated 2023 wheat production at a record
112.2 million tons, a 4.1% increase from year earlier. 2022 output was 107.74 million tons and 2021 at 109.59 million. Harvesting of new-crop wheat starts next month. India may still extend their ban on wheat exports despite the large crop in order
to cool inflation.  https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=India%20Grain%20and%20Feed%20Update%20-%20February%202023_New%20Delhi_India_IN2023-0015

·        
France’s FranceAgriMer lowered its outlook for French soft wheat exports for outside the European Union to 10.45 million tons from the 10.60 million tons forecast in January, 19% above the 2021/22 level. For within the EU, the
agency lowered its estimate to 6.59 million tons from 6.64 million tons previously.

·        
Paris May wheat was down 1.50 euro earlier at 295.25 per ton.

·        
Euronext reported non-commercial market participants slightly lifted their net short position in Euronext’s milling wheat futures and options in the week to Feb. 3, to 46,629 contracts from 46,354 a week earlier.

·        
SovEcon 2022-23 Russia wheat exports were raised 100,000 tons to 44.2 million tons. 39.1 MMT of grains were exported by Russia so far this season.

·        
Ukraine exported 29.7 million tons of grain so far in 2022-23, off 29.3 percent from year earlier.

 

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Japan in a SBS import tender passed on 70,000 tons of feed wheat and 40,000 tons oof feed barley for loading by May 31.

·        
Jordan’s state grain buyer seeks up to 120,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat on Feb. 21 for shipment between June 1-15, June 16-30, July 1-15 and July 16-31.

·        
Jordan’s state grain buyer seeks up to 120,000 tons of optional origin feed barley on Feb. 22 for shipment between June 1-15, June 16-30, July 1-15 and July 16-31.

·        
Thailand bought 60,000 tons of Australian feed wheat at $337 c&f for July shipment.

·        
Japan’s AgMin seeks 76,203 tons of food wheat from the US, Canada and Australia, later this week for March 21-May 31 loading.

 

Rice/Other

·        
The Philippines are in for sugar.