FI Morning Grain Comments 02/22/22

PDF attached does not include foreign value sheet due to technical problems. 

 

Good
morning. 

 

Private
exporters reported the following activity:

-120,000
metric tons of hard red winter wheat for delivery to Nigeria. Of the total, 60,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year and 60,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022/2023 marketing year

-132,000
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year

 

Expect
a wide trading range today similar to overnight but look for soybean price gains to be limited if meal fails to rally. Energies are supporting soybean oil and corn, and wheat naturally higher on Black Sea shipping concerns. For now, we see no disruption in
the Black Sea but something to monitor. 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR February 22, 2022

• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat areas saw temperatures in the 60s and 70s Fahrenheit during the weekend, but readings this morning were in the negative and positive single digits in the northwest and in the teens and 20s in the southeast.
  
• Additional
  cooling is expected this week.
• The
  frequent freeze/thaw cycle in wheat areas has induced a considerable amount of soil heaving and that may have damaged root systems.
  
• The
  heaving soil and drought still has this year’s wheat crop poised for losses unless spring is wet and mild which is not likely.
  
• In
  the meantime, extremely cold air will be over the northern Plains, upper Midwest and Canada’s Prairies this workweek with extremes in Saskatchewan falling to -40 Fahrenheit and near -30 along the U.S. border while subzero readings occur southward into western
  Kansas and eastern Colorado.
• The
  southeastern U.S. will be trending very warm and dry this week for a while further depleting soil moisture.
  
• West
  Texas is not likely to see much moisture of significance for a while
• California
  precipitation will be limited over the next ten days
• In
  Argentina, rain is expected Wednesday and Thursday and again during the weekend in Argentina’s dry areas offering some relief and more may occur late in the second week as well.
  
• Brazil’s
  interior south will continue struggling with dryness for the coming week, but Rio Grande do Sul may get some of Argentina’s rain late this workweek.
  
• Northern
  Brazil will see less precipitation and more sunshine later this week and that should trend supportive for improved late soybean and Safrinha corn planting. 
  
• No
  threatening cold is slated in Europe or Asia this week and a few showers may occur in northwestern Africa and southwestern Europe, but the amount of improvement to winter crops may be limited. 
• There
  is no threatening cold in Europe or Asia in the next ten days
• Flooding
  occurred in southern China, northern Vietnam and northern Laos during the weekend
• Eastern
  Australia will receive some beneficial late season rainfall for dryland sorghum, cotton and other crops
• Another
  tropical cyclone (Emnati) will impact Madagascar this week inducing more damage to crops and property

Source:
World Weather Inc.

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Feb. 21:

• Monthly
  MARS bulletin on crop conditions in Europe
• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• Malaysia’s
  Feb. 1-20 palm oil export data
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• HOLIDAY:
  U.S., Canada

Tuesday,
Feb. 22:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Brazil’s
  Unica may release cane crush and sugar output data during the week (tentative)
• U.S.
  cold storage data for beef, pork and poultry, 3pm
• EARNINGS:
  Wilmar International

Wednesday,
Feb. 23:

• USDA
  total milk production, 3pm
• EARNINGS:
  IOI Corp.
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan, Russia

Thursday,
Feb. 24:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• USDA
  corn, cotton, soybean and wheat acreage outlook, 8:30am
• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 11am
• U.S.
  red meat production, 3pm

Friday,
Feb. 25:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, ~1:30pm
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• USDA
  corn, cotton, soybean and wheat end-stockpile outlook, 8:30am
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Malaysia’s
  Feb. 1-25 palm oil exports
• U.S.
  cattle on feed, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Soybean
and Corn Advisor

2021/22
Brazil Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 124.0 Million Tons

2021/22
Argentina Soybean Estimate Lowered 1.0 mt to 39.0 Million

2021/22
Paraguay Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 5.0 Million Tons

2021/22
Brazil Corn Estimate Unchanged at 112.0 Million Tons

2021/22
Argentina Corn Estimate Lowered 1.0 mt to 49.0 Million

 

Macros

US
FHFA House Price Index (M/M) Dec: 1.2% (est 1.0%; prev 1.1%; prevR 1.2%)

US
House Price Purchase Index (Q/Q) Q4: 3.3% (prev 4.2%)

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn hit a 7-month high before pairing some of its gains before the electronic close.

·        
Sharply higher crude oil and a lower USD is supporting that market. With soybeans also pairing gains we look for a wide opening range for the day session. 

·        
China will allow corn imports from Myanmar, effective late last week. 

 

Export
developments.

• Taiwan’s
  MFIG seeks up to 65,000 tons of corn which from the United States, Brazil, Argentina or South Africa, on Friday, Feb. 25, for shipment between May 1 and early June shipment, depending on origin. 
  

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans are higher, but gains limited on an unchanged to moderately lower meal market. Soybean oil is sharply higher on strength in energy markets.  Brazil’s advancement of soybean harvesting might be weighing on prices.
They are a third complete and compares to 24% week earlier and 15% year ago. 

·        
AgRural forecasts Brazil’s 2021/22 soybean crop at 128.5 million tons, down 17 million tons from its initial forecast, but a new revision is expected in the coming days. (Rueters)

·        
China is looking to invest money in its state grain storage and processing plants to improve efficiency.  This comes after a series of announcements last week to cut back on import dependency.

·        
China will auction off soybeans from state reserves but details are lacking.  Last week some crush plants were having a hard time sourcing soybeans. 

·        
SGS reported Malaysian February 1-20 palm oil exports up 30.5 percent to 817,088 tons from 626,029 tons during the same period month ago.  AmSpec reported a 29.2 percent increase and ITS 24.9 percent rise from month ago. 

·        
May palm oil was up 170 ringgit, or 3%, to 5,845 ringgit ($1,396.99) a ton at the close, up for a fourth straight session, but since then sold off during the shortened overnight session. 

 

Export
Developments

• Turkey
  seeks 6,000 tons of sunflower oil on February 23 for shipment between March 2 and March 25.
  

 

SELECTED
MARKETS as of 5:30 a.m.

           
                  CME Corn             CME Wheat          KC Wheat                  MGE Wheat          CME Soybeans          CME Soymeal         CME Soyoil         ICE Canola

                                 
Crude                Heating Oil            London Gasoil                     Gold            Mini Dow Futures     US Dollar Index         Euro FX                 Brazil Real 

                    Malaysia
Palm Oil    Matif Rapeseed      Matif Wheat               Dalian Soybean          Dalian Meal         Dalian Palm Oil        Dalian Soyoil           Dalian Corn                                                                                                                                            

 

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat saw a wide trading range overnight, higher at the electronic close on Black Sea shipping concerns. 

·        
Chicago hit a 3-month high. 

·        
May EU wheat futures that were trading up 2.75 euros at 281.50 euros per ton at the time this was written. This is well off the contract’s one-month high made earlier today. 

·        
India plans to send 50,000 tons of wheat to Afghanistan through Pakistan. 

·        
China sold 508,089 tons of wheat out of auction, nearly 97 percent of wheat was offered. 

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Turkey bought 255,000 tons of feed barley at $324-$330.90/ton. Shipment was sought for March 1-31.

·        
Jordan passed on 120,000 tons of feed barley for late July through FH September shipment. 

·        
Jordan’s state grain buyer seeks 120,000 tons of milling wheat, optional origins, on Feb. 23, with shipment in 60,000 ton consignments, for July 16-31, Aug. 1-15, Aug. 16-31 and Sept. 1-15. They also seek 120,000 tons of feed
barley on Feb. 22.

 

Rice/Other

·        
South Korea seeks 72,200 tons rice from U.S. and Vietnam on Feb. 25.