FI Morning Grain Comments 03/04/21

PDF attached

 

Morning.
 Grains
saw some selling from poor USDA export sales.  Excellent soybean product shipments added some support to the soybean complex.  USD and WTI crude are higher.  Powell set to speak later today. 

 

 

 

Weather

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS: 

Dryness
worry in Argentina and continued rain to center west Brazil will maintain concern over soybean harvesting and corn planting, although there will be a few more breaks in the pattern over this next ten days. Argentina is firming up and limited rainfall and warm
temperatures for the next week will deplete soil moisture and bring on greater crop stress as some plants continue in the late reproductive and filling stages of development. Brazil’s southern crop areas will see less rain this weekend into early next week
to improve field working conditions, but recent rain was good for Safrinha crops.

            Weather
elsewhere in the world is of little concern. Australia’s summer crop areas will dry down stressing some unirrigated production areas. India will continue to dry down as well threatening some of the drier winter crop areas with a little yield decline. Europe
winter oilseed production areas are still mostly in favorable condition with warming needed to bring rapeseed out of dormancy. South Africa summer crops are still poised to produce very well.

            Early
season planting delays may continue for a little while in the southern U.S., but improving weather is expected later this month.

           
Overall, weather today will likely produce a mixed environment for market trade with the soybean harvest beginning to pressure some of the trade activity. The market will soon be flooded with soybeans reducing concern over short supply for a while.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT:  Rain prospects in the central and northern U.S. Plains during the coming week will offer “some” improvement to field conditions and to winter wheat development potential, but more rain will be needed.

            There
is no threatening cold advertised for any of the Northern Hemisphere crop production areas and seasonal warming will continue to raise soil temperatures in many areas which will slowly bring crops out of dormancy.

            North
Africa rainfall for this week will bring better production potential to the region’s wheat and barley, although more moisture will still be needed.

China
winter crops remain in good condition while those in India are still not experiencing the best weather for the best yields.

            Overall,
weather today may have a neutral to bearish on market trade decisions.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
March 4:

• FAO
  World Food Price Index, grains supply and demand reports
• USDA
  weekly crop net‐export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• U.S.
  National Coffee Association hosts annual convention (virtual), March 4‐5

Friday,
March 5:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Malaysia’s
  March 1‐5 palm oil export data
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• China’s
  CNGOIC to publish supply and demand reports on commodities such as corn and soybeans

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
export sales

Corn
export sales fell well short of expectations for old and new crop.  USDA noted for corn “Increases primarily for China (1,054,700 MT, including 1,046,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,000 MT), Mexico (181,900 MT, including decreases
of 1,100 MT), Saudi Arabia (129,300 MT, including 112,900 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (108,600 MT, including 118,800 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 68,600 MT), and South Korea (107,800 MT, including 68,000 MT switched
from unknown destinations and decreases of 15,400 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (1,764,900 MT).”  Soybean export sales were within expectations with Mexico and Germany taking the bulk of 2020-21.  Meal sales of 187,400 tons
(Philippines 49,000 tons) were ok but shipments were very excellent at 432,800 tons.  Soybean oil sales were poor at 5,500 tons but shipments were good at 42,500 tons.  All-wheat export sales were above expectations for this crop-year but at 219,200 tons,
they are still viewed as low.  Sorghum posted a net reduction of 52,200 tons (all China).  Pork sales were excellent at 59,600 tons (China 28,000).  Mixed reaction seen for futures post report with emphasis on corn selling. 

 

 

 

Macros

The
US Senate will review the $1.9 trillion USD Covid-19 aid bill this week. 

Canadian
Labor Productivity (Q/Q) Q4: -2.0% (est -1.9%; prev -10.3%)

US
Initial Jobless Claims Feb 27: 745K (est 750K; prevR 736K; prev 730K)

US
Continuing Claims Feb 20: 4295K (est 4300K; prev 4419K)

 

 

Corn

• Corn
  was mixed early this morning on lack of direction, higher USD and higher interest rates ahead of Powell’s speech later today.  The May contract dipped below yesterday’s absolute low but failed to attract new shorts.  Look for a choppy trade. 
  
• Corn
  export sales fell well short of expectations for old and new crop.  USDA noted several switches, that included China (1,054,700 MT, including 1,046,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,000 MT).   Sorghum posted a net reduction of 52,200
  tons (all China).  Pork sales were excellent at 59,600 tons (China 28,000).  Mixed reaction seen for futures post report with emphasis on corn selling. 
  
• Yesterday
  funds were net sellers of 23,000 corn contracts on the session. 
• Weekly
  ethanol production was more than expected 191,00 barrels (Bloomberg est. +162) and the draw in stocks slid 360,000 barrels to 22.425 million barrels. 
  

 

Export
developments.

• Algeria
  seeks 30,000 tons of corn, optional origin, on March 4, for shipment by April 15.
• South
  Korea’s MFG bought 68,000 tons of corn likely from South America or South Africa at an estimated $285.79 a ton c&f for arrival around July 30 in South Korea.
  

 

Soybeans

• The
  soybean complex is higher led by strength in soybean oil (up 33-50 points) from a higher lead in outside related vegetable oil markets.  Palm oil rallied 53 MRY and cash palm was up $12.50.  Soybean oil in China appreciated 1.4 percent.  Rain will continue
  today for the central and northwest areas while Argentina will see net drying in most areas.  Light rain will occur later today across north Santa Fe, north Entre Rios, south Buenos Aires. 
  
• The
  USD was 21 higher as of 7:53 am CT.  WTI was $1.10 higher. 
• Soybean
  export sales were within expectations with Mexico and Germany taking the bulk of 2020-21.  Meal sales of 187,400 tons (Philippines 49,000 tons) were ok but shipments were very excellent at 432,800 tons.  Soybean oil sales were poor at 5,500 tons but shipments
  were good at 42,500 tons.  All-wheat export sales were above expectations for this crop-year but at 219,200 tons, they are still viewed as low.  Little over 98 percent of USDA’s soybean export projection had been sold, but we have a way to go on shipments. 
  
• ICE
  canola was up 14 in the May positions as of 7:45 am CT. 
• Yesterday
  funds were net sellers of 5,000 soybean contracts and 3,000 soybean meal contracts and net buyers of 1,000 bean oil contracts.
• Rotterdam
  vegetable oil prices were up about 10-15 euros from this time yesterday. 
• Offshore
  values are leading soybean oil 54 higher and SBM CBOT futures $1.70 lower. 
  
• China
  cash crush margins on our analysis continue to weaken.  At 91 cents, they are down from 112 cents late last week. 
  

 

China
futures:

 

Malaysian
palm oil:

 

Export
Developments

• Egypt’s
  GASC received offers for soybean oil and sunflower Lowest offer for at least 30,000 tons of soyoil was at $1,183 a ton c&f.  The lowest offer for 10,000 tons of sunflower oil was at $1,554 a ton c&f.   The oils are both sought for May 1-15 arrival in Egypt. 
  (Reuters)

 

 

Wheat

• Wheat
  futures
  are mostly lower on a higher USD and poor USDA export sales.  Algeria
  bought a large amount of durum wheat.  US wheat exports improved this week with Taiwan picking up various class wheat.  But last week was different story.  All-wheat export sales were above expectations for this crop-year but at 219,200 tons, they are still
  viewed as low.  The US markets sold off as a result. 
• Ukraine
  winter grain crops were thought to be in in excellent condition due to favorable weather.  2021 production could end up at a record 75 million tons according to the government, including 29-30 million tons of wheat and at least 34 million tons of corn.
• Yesterday
  funds were net sellers of 8,000 net soft wheat contracts on the session.
• Russian
  grain conditions improved over the winter due to mild weather after a very poor start to plantings last fall.  Only 7-9 percent of the crop was rated poor. 
  
• EU
  May milling wheat was down 0.75 at 229.00 euros.
• The
  FAO World Food Price Index averaged 116.0 points last month versus 113.2 in January.

 

Export
Developments.

• Algeria
  bought between 180,000 and 240,000 tons durum wheat for shipment between April 1-15 and April 16-30, between $372 and $373 a ton &f.  Origins were thought to include Canada, the United States and Mexico.
• Taiwan
  bought 100,410 tons of US wheat for April 25-May 9 shipment, and May 12-May 26 shipment (2 consignments). 
  
• Saudi
  Arabia seeks 540,000 tons of barley on Friday, valid until Monday, for April – May shipment. 
  
• Results
  awaited: The Philippines seeks 145,000 tons of milling wheat on March 4 for April and June shipment. 
  
• Results
  awaited: Iran’s SLAL seeks up to 400,000 tons of animal feed barley on Wednesday, March 3, for shipment between March 10 and April 10.

 

Rice/Other

·        
South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. seeks 38,889 tons of rice from the United States and China, part arrival in South Korea around Sept. 30 from the US. Another 16,667 tons of non-glutinous short grain brown rice from
China is sought for arrival around June 30.

·        
Syria seeks 25,000 tons of white rice on March 29, from China or Egypt.  

 

 

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 2/25/2021 

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	87.4	1,335.1	1,775.6	136.6	6,671.9	6,828.0	0.0	252.0
SRW	9.4	404.6	356.7	52.5	1,329.8	1,937.5	0.0	284.6
HRS	68.4	1,984.0	1,574.6	105.8	5,108.3	5,230.1	23.5	232.7
WHITE	44.0	2,285.1	1,057.1	112.7	3,999.9	3,591.4	0.0	80.3
DURUM	10.0	154.2	148.4	0.0	517.9	679.8	0.0	5.0
TOTAL	219.2	6,163.0	4,912.4	407.5	17,627.7	18,266.9	23.5	854.6
BARLEY	0.0	10.6	14.9	0.4	21.7	34.3	0.0	14.5
CORN	115.9	32,953.6	12,261.9	2,010.2	26,169.9	14,380.2	38.8	1,266.8
SORGHUM	-52.2	2,843.3	668.9	72.4	3,035.0	1,069.9	0.0	703.0
SOYBEANS	334.0	7,465.8	4,432.3	1,160.8	52,683.4	29,589.0	199.4	4,863.0
SOY MEAL	187.4	2,683.4	3,421.7	432.8	5,449.1	4,737.5	0.0	215.1
SOY OIL	5.5	159.7	246.4	42.5	438.3	486.2	0.0	0.6
RICE
L G RGH	76.6	275.6	393.7	54.4	982.4	863.9	0.0	0.0
M S RGH	0.0	9.9	42.8	1.5	19.0	17.5	0.0	0.0
L G BRN	0.1	12.9	14.2	0.1	24.0	33.7	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	0.7	70.7	71.7	27.2	81.7	35.8	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	7.3	73.7	91.7	37.5	396.8	600.5	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	7.7	235.0	170.7	23.3	330.1	377.2	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	92.3	677.8	784.8	144.0	1,834.0	1,928.5	0.0	0.0
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	169.0	5,447.9	6,997.4	377.4	8,129.8	7,045.5	40.6	1,196.7
PIMA	7.8	274.4	230.3	9.1	434.1	256.5	0.0	1.1

 

Export Sales Highlights

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period February 19-25, 2021.

Wheat:  Net
sales of 219,200 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 31 percent from the previous week, but down 51 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (69,300 MT, including decreases of 1,400 MT), China (65,900 MT, including 65,000 MT
switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 100 MT), Nigeria (56,000 MT, including decreases of 1,000 MT), Canada (31,600 MT), and Japan (30,600 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (55,000
MT) and Chile (8,000 MT).  For 2021/2022, total net sales of 23,500 MT were for Haiti.  Exports of 407,500 MT were up 4 percent from the previous week, but down 5 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (147,800 MT),
Indonesia (74,500 MT), Thailand (57,900 MT), Honduras (36,800 MT), and Nigeria (29,000 MT). 

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2020/2021, the current outstanding balance of 10,000 MT, all Spain.

Corn: 
Net sales of 115,900 MT for 2020/2021–a marketing-year low–were down 74 percent from the previous week and 96 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (1,054,700 MT, including 1,046,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and
decreases of 3,000 MT), Mexico (181,900 MT, including decreases of 1,100 MT), Saudi Arabia (129,300 MT, including 112,900 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (108,600 MT, including 118,800 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 68,600
MT), and South Korea (107,800 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 15,400 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (1,764,900 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 38,800 MT were reported for Mexico
(26,800 MT) and Japan (12,000 MT).  Exports of 2,010,200 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 69 percent from the previous week and 57 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (351,600 MT), China (346,700 MT), Mexico (261,100
MT), South Korea (173,700 MT), and Saudi Arabia (129,300 MT). 

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2020/2021, decreases totaling 105,000 MT were reported for South Korea (55,000 MT) and unknown destinations (50,000 MT).  The current outstanding balance of 1,174,400 MT is for South Korea (793,000 MT), unknown destinations (244,000 MT), Taiwan (70,000
MT), China (65,000 MT), and Ukraine (2,400 MT).

Barley: 
No net sales were reported for the week.  Exports of 400 MT were to Japan (300 MT) and Canada (100 MT).

Sorghum: 
For 2020/2021, total net sales reductions of 52,200 MT were for China.  Exports of 72,400 MT were down 42 percent from the previous week and 49 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destination was China.

Rice: 
Net sales of 92,300 MT for 2020/2021 were up 14 percent from the previous week and 22 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (35,300 MT), Venezuela (31,500 MT), El Salvador (7,000 MT, including decreases of 1,000 MT), the
Dominican Republic (4,600 MT), and Guatemala (2,500 MT).  Exports of 144,000 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (27,500 MT), South Korea (27,100 MT), Haiti (21,600 MT),
Guatemala (14,300 MT), and Japan (13,800 MT).

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 334,000 MT for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 33 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (139,700 MT, including 34,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,900 MT),
Germany (137,700 MT), Japan (121,800 MT, including 45,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,600 MT), the Netherlands (68,100 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Bangladesh (56,000 MT, including 55,000 MT
switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (351,400 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 199,400 MT were reported for China (198,000 MT) and Canada (1,400 MT).  Exports of 1,160,800 MT were up 18 percent
from the previous week, but down 22 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (320,600 MT), Germany (137,700 MT), Egypt (115,800 MT), Taiwan (105,700 MT), and Japan (98,500 MT).

Exports
for Own Account: 
The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 5,800 MT, all Canada.

Export
Adjustments:
Accumulated exports of soybeans to the Netherlands were adjusted down 68,676 MT for week ending February 4^th
and 69,060 MT for week ending February 18^th.  The correct destination for these shipments was Germany.

Soybean
Cake and Meal: 
Net sales of 187,400 MT for 2020/2021 were up 17 percent from the previous week, but down 28 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for the Philippines (49,000 MT, including decreases of 1,000 MT), Mexico (37,400 MT, including decreases
of 22,400 MT), the Dominican Republic (33,800 MT), Canada (21,300 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), and the United Kingdom (19,500 MT, including 17,700 MT switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (27,700
MT).  Exports of 432,800 MT–a marketing-year high–were up noticeably from the previous week and up 80 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (68,000 MT), Vietnam (48,700 MT), the Philippines (48,200 MT), Colombia
(42,200 MT), and Chile (36,500 MT).

Soybean
Oil: 
Net sales of 5,500 MT for 2020/2021 were up 25 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Guatemala (5,400 MT), El Salvador (1,000 MT), Canada (300 MT), and Trinidad and Tobago (100 MT), were offset
by reductions for Colombia (900 MT) and Venezuela (500 MT).  Exports of 42,500 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Peru (18,900 MT), the Dominican Republic (14,500 MT), Colombia
(7,500 MT), Canada (1,000 MT), and Mexico (500 MT).

Cotton: 
Net sales of 169,000 RB for 2020/2021 were down 32 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Vietnam (65,300 RB, including 2,000 RB switched from China, 1,700 RB switched from South Korea, and decreases
of 1,700 RB), Pakistan (33,600 RB), China (24,100 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), Indonesia (23,200 RB, including 1,400 RB switched from Japan and decreases 2,800 RB), and Bangladesh (15,900 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), were offset by reductions
primarily for Turkey (23,900 RB).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 40,600 RB were primarily for Vietnam (15,500 RB), China (13,200 RB), Guatemala (6,500 RB), Pakistan (2,600 RB), and Peru (1,500 RB).  Exports of 377,400 RB were up 29 percent from the previous
week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily to Vietnam (98,800 RB), China (94,700 RB), Pakistan (49,700 RB), Turkey (27,600 RB), and Indonesia (22,700 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 7,800 RB were down 34 percent from the previous
week and 43 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for China (3,900 RB), Turkey (1,900 RB), India (1,600 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), and Italy (300 RB).  Exports of 9,100 RB were down 26 percent from the previous week and
29 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (2,600 RB), Vietnam (2,200 RB), Pakistan (1,100 RB), Peru (1,100 RB), and India (900 RB).  

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2020/2021, new exports for own account totaling 13,900 RB were to Vietnam (10,600 RB), China (2,000 RB), Malaysia (1,100 RB), and Bangladesh (200 RB).  Exports for own account totaling 6,500 RB to Vietnam (4,400 RB), China (1,700 RB), and Bangladesh (400
RB) were applied to new or outstanding sales.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance of 40,500 RB is for China (28,200 RB), Vietnam (10,800 RB), Malaysia (1,100 RB), and Bangladesh (400 RB).

Hides
and Skins: 
Net sales of 359,700 pieces for 2021 were up 71 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (240,500 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 15,300 pieces), South Korea (53,000 whole cattle
hides, including decreases of 1,700 pieces), Thailand (21,200 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 400 pieces), Taiwan (16,600 whole cattle hides), and Cambodia (9,800 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 700 pieces), were offset by reductions
for Japan (100 pieces).  Total net sales of 5,000 calf skins were for Italy, including decreases of 800 pieces.  In addition, total
net sales of 1,000 kip skins were for Belgium, including decreases of 1,000 pieces. 
Exports of 392,100 pieces for 2021 were up 29 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (281,300 pieces), South Korea (54,300 pieces),
Mexico (28,000 pieces), Thailand (7,700 pieces), and Brazil (6,800 pieces).  Exports of 1,800 calf skins were to Italy.  Additionally, exports of 2,600 kip skins were to Belgium.

Net
sales of 75,700 wet blues for 2021 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 28 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (29,800 unsplit, including decreases of 600 unsplit and 600 grain splits), Brazil (19,600 unsplit),
Vietnam (16,300 unsplit), the Dominican Republic (6,400 unsplit), and Japan (4,300 unsplit), were offset by reductions for China (500 grain splits) and Italy (300 unsplit).  Exports of 94,200 wet blues for 2021 were up 34 percent from the previous week, but
down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Italy (23,100 unsplit and 10,600 grain splits), Vietnam (26,300 unsplit), China (22,700 unsplit), Mexico (2,100 grain splits and 1,000 unsplit), and Brazil (2,900 unsplit). 
Net sales of 496,600 splits resulting in increases for Vietnam (398,000 pounds) and Taiwan (128,300 pounds, including decreases of 1,500 pounds), were offset by reductions for China (29,700 pounds).  Exports of 377,500 pounds were to China (175,700 pounds),
Vietnam (160,000 pounds), and Taiwan (41,800 pounds). 

Beef: 
Net
sales of 22,600 MT reported for 2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 15 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for South Korea (6,800 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), China (4,500 MT), Japan (3,800 MT, including decreases
of 500 MT), Taiwan (2,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Mexico (2,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for the Philippines (100 MT).  Exports of 19,700 MT were up 30 percent from the previous week and 20 percent
from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (5,700 MT), South Korea (5,000 MT), China (3,100 MT), Mexico (1,700 MT), and Taiwan (1,100 MT). 

Pork: 
Net
sales of 59,600 MT reported for 2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 68 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for China (28,000 MT, including decreases of 1,300 MT), Mexico (14,500 MT, including decreases of 1,100
MT), Japan (4,600 MT, including decreases 400 MT), Canada (2,700 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), and South Korea (2,200 MT, including decreases of 1,800 MT).  Exports of 40,000 MT were up 13 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week
average.  The destinations were primarily to China (13,400 MT), Mexico (9,100 MT), Japan (4,600 MT), South Korea (2,500 MT), and Canada (2,100 MT). 

March
4, 2021                                                  1                FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE/USDA