FI Morning Grain Comments 03/10/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

US
Jobs report sent the USD lower, trimmed losses for WTI crude oil and underpinned US equities. Look for positioning today ahead of the weekend. Grains are a little higher, soybeans lower, meal lower and SBO rebounding from oil share (short) profit taking. The
US weather outlook was unchanged this morning while Argentina slightly improved. Both Malaysia March 1-10 shipments and MPOB palm S&D were supportive for palm oil, but Malaysia May palm futures fell 112 ringgit to 4,093 and May cash was down $20.00 at $952.50/ton.
Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 89 points this morning and meal $4.70 short ton lower.

 

 

 

Weather

7-days
through March 9

 

 

 

 

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Friday,
March 10:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board’s data on stockpiles, production and exports
• FranceAgriMer’s
  weekly crop conditions reports
• Brazil’s
  Unica may release cane crush and sugar output data (tentative)
• Coffee
  festival in Dak Lak province, Vietnam

Monday,
March 13:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• New
  Zealand food prices

Tuesday,
March 14:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data

Wednesday,
March 15:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• FranceAgriMer
  monthly grains balance sheet
• Malaysia’s
  March 1-15 palm oil export data
• Eurasian
  agri-commodities conference, Kazakhstan, day 1
• Grain
  Export Conference, Paris

Thursday,
March 16:

• IGC
  grains market report
• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Eurasian
  agri- commodities conference, Kazakhstan, day 2
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports

Friday,
March 17:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer’s
  weekly crop conditions reports
• USDA
  cattle on feed

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Feb: 311K (exp 225K; prev 517K)

Change
in Private Payrolls Feb: 265K (exp 215K; prev 443K)

Change
in Manufacturing Payrolls Feb: -4K (exp 10K; prev 19K)

US
Unemployment Rate Feb: 3.6% (exp 3.4%; prev 3.4%)

US
Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) Feb: 0.2% (exp 0.3%; prev 0.3%)

Average
Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) Feb: 4.6% (exp 4.7%; prev 4.4%)

Average
Weekly Hours All Employees Feb: 34.5% (exp 34.6%; prevR 34.6%)

 

Canadian
Net Change in Employment Feb: 21.8K (exp 10.0K; prev 150.0K)

Unemployment
Rate Feb: 5.0% (exp 5.1%; prev 5.0%)

Hourly
Wage Rate Permanent Employees (Y/Y) Feb: 5.4% (exp 5.1%; prev 4.5%)

Participation
Rate Feb:  65.7% (exp 65.7%; prev 65.7%)

Full
Time Employment Change Feb: 31.1K (prev 121.1K)

Part
Time Employment Change Feb: -9.3K (prev 28.9K)

 

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures
are 1.50 cents higher in the nearby contracts on technical buying and ideas the US soybean area will have a slight edge over corn for the upcoming spring planting season resulting in less than expected corn acres. The acreage fight will continue well into
next month.

·        
Yesterday the BA Grains Exchange estimated Argentina corn production at 37.5 million tons versus 41.0 million prior.
Rosario
is at 35 million tons.

 

Export
developments.

• South
  Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) bought 68,000 tons of optional origin corn at $318.99 a ton c&f for arrival around July 30.
• Turkey
  seeks 18,000 tons of sunflower oil on March 15 for March 22-April 28 shipment.
  

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybean and meal futures are lower from fund selling and weaker SA meal and soybean premiums.

·        
Soybean oil was down sharply earlier but saw a recovery with some speculators getting out of short oil share positions.

·        
Both Malaysia March 1-10 shipments and MPOB palm S&D were supportive for palm oil, but Malaysia May palm futures fell about 2.5%, following yesterday’s move in outside related vegetable oil markets.

·        
Yesterday the BA Grains Exchange estimated Argentina soybean production at 29 million tons versus 33.5 million prior. Rosario is at 27 million.

·        
AmSpec reported Malaysia March 1-10 palm oil exports at 474,830 tons, a 52 percent increase from 312,092 tons reported during the same period in February.  ITS reported a 45.3% increase to 501,514 tons from 345,080 tons prior
period.

·        
Malaysia May palm futures were down 112 ringgit to 4,093 and May cash was down $20.00 at $952.50/ton. 

·        
China soybeans were up 1.1%, meal up 0.2%, SBO down 1.0% and palm oil futures down 0.8%.

·        
Nearby Rotterdam vegetable oils were
20-40 euros lower from this time yesterday morning and meal 5.50-9.00 euros lower.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 89 points this morning and meal $4.70 short ton
lower.

 

Malaysia’s
end-February palm oil stocks fell by a more than expected 149,000 tons (86,530 tons below average trade guess) to a six month low of 2.120 million tons. Stocks could dip below 2.0 million tons by end of April, according to private estimates. February Malaysia
palm oil production hit a one year low at 1.251 million tons, nearly 10,000 tons below trade expectations. Exports hit a 10-month low of 1.1 million tons.

 

 

 

Export
Developments

·        
Tunisia bought 9,000 tons of crude degummed soybean oil at $1,185.99/ton c&f, optional origin. Delivery was sought between March 30 and April 12.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat was mostly higher at the electronic close on light technical buying. News was light.

·        
Next week the trade could see a decision reached for the Black Sea grain deal.

·        
Russia’s Hydrometeorological Centre mentioned 5-6% of Russia’s winter crops saw damage over the winter, across the North Caucasus, the Volga region and Siberia. Most of the other areas were in good to satisfactory condition.

·        
French wheat crop conditions as of March 6 of 95 percent good/excellent were unchanged from the previous week.

·        
Paris May wheat was lower by 1.75 euros earlier at 261.75 per ton, near a 1-year low.

·        
China will auction off up to 140,000 tons of wheat from state reserves on March 15.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Saudi Arabia seeks 480,000 tons of wheat for July – August shipment.

·        
Jordan seeks up to 120,000 tons of feed barley on March 15. Possible shipment combinations are for Aug. 1-15, Aug. 16-31, Sept. 1-15 and Sept. 16-30.

·        
Jordan seeks up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat, optional origin, on March 14, for shipment during Aug. 1-15, Aug. 16-31, Sept. 1-15 and Sept. 16-30.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported