FI Morning Grain Comments 03/11/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Private
exporters reported the following activity:

-128,900
metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year

-264,000
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year

 

Day
16.  Lower trade in ags this morning in another risk off session on positioning and headline trading. Moscow stated talks with Ukraine took a positive turn. We remain cautious as the fighting has not slowed. WTI crude oil was higher, USD moderately higher,
and US equities higher. Taiwan bought US wheat. Tunisia’s state grains agency bought about 125,000 tons of soft wheat and about 100,000 tons of barley in. Japan bought 163,276 tons of food wheat. Look for additional positioning today ahead of the weekend.  

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MARCH 11, 2022

• Cold
  air over Russia is not having much impact on winter crops that are buried beneath the region’s snow; however, the cold will be persistent over the next ten days.
  
• Some
  of the cold will also impact the Middle East resulting in rain and snow to occur from Turkey through Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, southern Kazakhstan and Tajikistan improving topsoil moisture for winter wheat development and cotton planting.
  
• Some
  of this moisture will also reach into the mountains of Xinjiang, China which is needed to improve spring runoff for irrigation of corn and cotton in the province. 
  
• Most
  of eastern China will be quite warm for a while longer bringing more of its winter wheat and rapeseed out of dormancy, but some cooling will occur during the second week of the outlook.
  
• In
  South America,
• Argentina
  will experience a week to ten days of drying, but after recent rain crops will remain in good shape.
  
• Southern
  Argentina subsoil moisture will carry those crops through the drier period well event though recent rainfall has been minimal.
  
• Brazil
  will see a good mix of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks resulting in ongoing favorable farming conditions. 
  
• In
  the United States,
• Thursday’s
  snow event in Kansas was a big boon to some of the wheat in northern and central parts of the state where accumulations range from 3 to 13 inches and moisture totals varied up to 0.50 inch.
  
• Drought
  conditions are certainly not over, but the moisture resulting as the snow melts this weekend will help stimulate greening and a little start to crop development.
  
• Much
  of the U.S. will experience notable warming next week with some of it starting in the Plains this weekend.
  
• Another
  very cold morning is expected first in the Plains Saturday and in the eastern states Sunday.
  
• The
  cold may burn new vegetative wheat development in the mid-south and southeastern states as well as the far southern Plains.
  
• The
  cold may also damage some fruit and vegetable crops after recent warm weather induced some flowering
• Frequent
  precipitation will impact the lower and eastern Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin over the next ten days while the southeastern states trend wetter ending about 30 days of well below normal precipitation.
  
• West
  and South Texas will not be getting much meaningful precipitation for a while and hard red winter wheat areas will only receive a restricted amount of follow up moisture during the next ten days.
  
• California’s
  central Valleys and the northwestern Plains will be dry biased. 

Source:
World Weather Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
March 11:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, ~1:30pm
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• New
  Zealand Food Prices

Monday,
March 14:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals

Tuesday,
March 15:

• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Malaysia’s
  March 1-15 palm oil export data

Wednesday,
March 16:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 11am

Thursday,
March 17:

• International
  Grains Council’s monthly market report
• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• HOLIDAY:
  Bangladesh

Friday,
March 18:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, ~1:30pm
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• China’s
  second-batch of Feb. imports for corn, pork and wheat
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• HOLIDAY:
  India

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

Canadian
Net Change In Employment Feb: 336.6K (est 127.5K; prev -200.1K)

Canadian
Unemployment Rate Feb: 5.5% (est 6.2%; prev 6.5%)

Canadian
Capacity Utilization Rate Q4: 82.9% (est 81.9%; prev 81.4%)

 

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn sold
off early this morning from a break in WTI crude oil and headlines that Ukraine/Russia talks “improved” but traders remain cautious as the conflict drags on.

·        
Not much news in the corn market. We are hearing of increasing US corn export interest and this morning USDA announced 128,900 tons of corn was sold to unknown.  

 

Export
developments.

• Private
  exporters reported 128,900 tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year.
  
• Results
  awaited: Iran’s SLAL seeks up to 60,000 tons of feed barley, 60,000 tons of feed corn and 60,000 tons of soymeal for March and April shipment.

 

Soybeans

·        
The soybean complex sold off on headline trading. May crush fell in part to profit taking in soybean meal and position squaring in soybean oil from a break in energy prices. Malaysian palm oil sold off on Friday from demand destruction
due to high prices and expectations for additional palm rationing during the month of March.

·        
We are hearing SA soybean premiums are now favored for major importers and US corn is now attractive. 

·        
Indonesia’s January palm oil exports were 2.18 million tons, down 23.8% from the same month last year, and down 11.4% from December. January production was 3.86 million tons of crude palm oil (CPO) and about 0.37 million tons
of palm kernel oil, down from December’s output of 3.98 million tons of CPO. January’s ending stock stood at 4.68 million tons, up from 4.13 million tons a month earlier.

·        
May Malaysian palm oil settled 254 ringgit lower. Cash palm was down $47.50/ton to $1,747.50/ton.

·        
From this time yesterday morning Rotterdam meal was mostly 2-4 euros lower and vegetable oils 10-30 euros lower.

·        
China May soybeans were near unchanged, meal up 1.3%, soybean oil down 0.4% and palm 1.3% higher.

·        
Offshore values are leading SBO 223 points lower (172 higher for the week) and meal $7.20 short ton lower ($7.30 higher for the week).

·        
Argentina’s north and central growing regions will see heavy rains over the next few days. –  Buenos Aires grains exchange

·        
China plans to sell 295,596 tons of soybeans from reserves on March 14.

·        
Yesterday CNGOIC reported China soybean stocks at an unusually low 2.94 million tons for this time of year.  AgriCensus note its down 1.01 million tons from last month and down 1.69 million from a year ago. 

 

Export
Developments

• Private
  exporters reported 264,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.
  
• Results
  awaited: Iran’s state purchasing agency GTC has issued an international tender to purchase about 30,000 tons of soyoil for March and April shipment.
  

 

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures fell on Friday with May Chicago now near a one-week low.  Shortage concerns for Ukraine wheat should limit losses.

·        
Ukraine announced they intend to plant as many crops as possible this spring.  But many obstacles main hinder sowings including a shortage of fuel and obviously conflicts.

·        
Russian January wheat exports decreased to 1.4 million tons from 3.1 million tons a year ago.

·        
Northern Kansas yesterday saw up 0.50 inch in precipitation from a snow event that should help not only protect winter crops from a cold snap that will last until Saturday but provide enough moisture that will aid in spring crop
development.  More moisture for the region is much needed to replenish soil moisture. 

·        
May Paris wheat futures were down 2.25 euros at 365.75 euros earlier.

·        
The French soft wheat crop was rated 92% good/excellent condition as of March 7, down from 93% a week earlier but above a year-earlier rating of 88%. Winter barley and durum wheat were rated 89% and 88%, respectively, slightly
below week earlier. 

·        
Morocco has wheat stocks to last five months.

·        
China’s weather department warned of disease risk for the wheat crop as warm weather arrived this week.

·        
AgriCensus in an article yesterday noted China allocated 253 million dollars ahead of the winter wheat harvest to improve conditions.  Fertilizers and applications to combat pests are some of the methods that producers could use
to stabilize yields. 

 

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Tunisia bought about 125,000 tons of soft wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley for shipment between March 20-May 20. The wheat was bought in five consignments each of about 25,000 tons, at $491.68, $499.69, $505.68 and $508.89
per ton c&f. One cargo was sold at $497.25. The barley was bought in four 25,000-ton consignments at $484.68 a ton c&f, $489.98, $492.49 and $494.97 per ton c&f.

·        
Taiwan bought 50,000 tons of US PNW milling wheat for April 23-May 7 shipment. 

-30,970
tons of U.S. dark northern spring wheat of 14.5% protein content bought at $454.51 a ton FOB U.S. Pacific Northwest coast.

-13,570
tons of hard red winter wheat of 12.5% protein was bought at $494.93 a ton FOB and 5,460 tons of soft white wheat of 10.5% protein was bought at $437.98 a ton FOB.

·        
Japan bought 163,276 tons of food wheat. Original details as follows:

·        
Jordan’s state grains buyer seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on March 15.  Shipment is between July 16-31, Aug. 1-15, Aug. 16-31 and Sept. 1-15.

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat on March 16 for shipment within 40 days of contract signing. 

·        
Japan’s AgMin in a SBS import tender on March 16 seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley for arrival by Aug. 25. 

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on March 16. Possible shipment combinations are for May 16-31, June 16-30, July 1-15 and July 16-31.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported