FI Morning Grain Comments 03/22/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

USDA
reported under their 24-hour reporting system 240,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown for 2021-22 delivery.

 

Light
new day as we await some export developments. Prices softened into the electronic close. Outside markets are lending support. USD was down 4 points, WTI crude traded two-sided recently, and equities higher. Egypt is in for vegetable oils for arrival May 5-25
and lowest offer was $1,788 per ton c&f for 25,000 tons of soybean oil.  The lowest offer presented for sunflower oil was $2,094 per ton c&f for 11,500 tons.

 

 

Weather

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MARCH 22, 2022

• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat areas received rain and snow Monday and early today – the moisture was lighter than expected in the west-central high Plains, but significant in a part of the east-central and southeastern Texas Panhandle and from south-central Oklahoma
  to southeastern wheat areas of Kansas
• overall
  the impact was still beneficial to future wheat development and spring planting conditions, but the lighter bias in the west may eventually be of importance as the region dries down and heats up 
• West
  and South Texas are still  advertised to be dry biased for the next couple of weeks
• California
  may get some precipitation briefly this weekend, but amounts will not be enough to make up for the lack of precipitation in recent weeks
• U.S.
  Delta and Tennessee River Basin will continue to be too wet for a while, although some net drying is expected for a little while late this week and during the weekend
• Very
  warm temperatures are expected in the western U.S. late this week  into  early next week while the east is a little cooler biased
• No
  changes in South America weather today relative to that advertised Monday
• northwestern
  and west-central Argentina may not get much moisture, but all other areas in the nation will; including the drier areas in the southwest
• Brazil
  will experience precipitation in all crop areas except northern Minas Gerais and the heart of Bahia which is expected to be dry
• Europe
  weather will trend wetter in the  second week of the  outlook; otherwise precipitation will be confined to Spain and Portugal
• Northwestern
  Africa precipitation is still expected to be sufficient to improve winter crops
• Western
  Russia will experience colder weather and more snow this weekend through all of next week, but there is no threat to winter crops
• China
  will be too wet in the southern coastal provinces for a while as the Yangtze River Basin slowly gets a break from frequent rain
• Eastern
  Australia rainfall late this week into early next week will raise a little concern over cotton fiber quality,  but no serious change in crop condition is expected
• Tropical
  Cyclone Charlotte should stay far enough to the west of Australia to be a small influence on the nation, although some rain will fall

Source:
World Weather Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
March 22:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data

Wednesday,
March 23:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• U.S.
  cold storage data for beef, pork and poultry, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Pakistan

Thursday,
March 24:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef
• Brazil’s
  Unica may release cane crush, sugar output data
• USDA
  red meat production, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Argentina

Friday,
March 25:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, ~2:30pm
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Malaysia’s
  March 1-25 palm oil export data
• U.S.
  cattle on feed, poultry slaughter

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                                    

Wheat 
330,632                                 versus   275000-500000  range

Corn     
1,466,311                             versus   1140000-1600000             range

Soybeans
544,986                            versus   500000-850000  range

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn
mostly higher on follow through buying from yesterday and higher WTI crude oil. May traded two-sided by early morning. WTI sold off after the CBOT electronic close. Look for a copy trade.

·        
Traders should monitor the EU if shipments increase amid Black Sea supply constraints. We heard Spain may have bought more than expected US corn but waiting for confirmation.  The GMO issue remains in place.

·        
USD was moderately lower earlier this morning, WTI crude oil up more than $0.50 and US equities higher.

 

Export
developments.

• None
  reported

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans are higher on follow through bullish sentiment amid Argentina product shipment concerns, lower USD and higher to mixed energy prices. Nearby meal is lower on technical selling and product spreading. Egypt’s import
tender for vegetable oils are fetching high prices.

·        
June Malaysian palm oil settled 193 ringgit higher to 5,967. Cash palm was up $36/ton to $1,540 ton (1.3%).

·        
From this time yesterday morning Rotterdam meal from SA were unchanged to 4 euros lower and vegetable oils up 10-20 euros. 

·        
China May soybeans were up 0.9%, meal up 2.2%, soybean oil higher by 0.2% and palm up 2.3%.

·        
Offshore values are leading SBO 60 points lower and meal $1.60 short ton lower. 

 

Export
Developments

• Egypt
  is in for vegetable oils for arrival May 5-25 and lowest offer was $1,788 per ton c&f for 25,000 tons of soybean oil.  The lowest offer presented for sunflower oil at the tender was $2,094 per ton c&f for 11,500 tons.
  
• USDA
  reported under their 24-hour reporting system 240,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown for 2021-22 delivery.
  
• Qatar
  seeks to buy 960k cartons of corn oil in a tender closing April 4.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are higher on follow through buying with little developments in news. Escalating Black Sea conflict is the main driver.

·        
May Paris wheat futures were up 6.25 euros to 383 euros earlier.

·        
Iraq may need to buy more wheat as stockpiles are apparently less than three months of consumption.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Bangladesh is in for 50,000 tons of wheat with a deadline of April 4.

·        
Turkey seeks another 210,000 tons of wheat on March 23.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of barley on March 23. Possible shipment combinations are between July 16-31, Aug. 1-15, Aug. 16-31 and Sept. 1-15. 

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of milling wheat on March 24. Possible shipment combinations are May 16-31, June 16-30, July 1-15 and July 16-31.

·        
Qatar seeks 105,000 tons of optional origin animal feed barley on March 27 shipment in April, May and June. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
(Bloomberg) — Qatar is seeking to buy 1.2m bags of rice in a tender that closes April 4, according to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry’s website.  Qatar also seeks to buy 960k cartons of corn oil in a tender closing April
4