FI Morning Grain Comments 03/23/23

PDF attached foreign prices and daily estimate of funds

 

Good
morning.

 

USD
is slightly higher, WTI crude lower and US equities pointing towards a higher open. USDA export sales were a marketing year high for corn and soybean oil. Soybeans, meal and wheat were poor. Soybeans are higher with bear spreading a feature. Soybean meal is
higher and SBO lower. Palm oil futures fell to more than 6-month low. Corn futures are higher with nearby spreads again firm. News was light for the corn market. US wheat futures are higher led by the KC contract on bottom picking after prices fell sharply
on Wednesday.

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MARCH 23, 2023

• Interior
  northern Cordoba to northern and central Entre Rios, Argentina received additional rain of significance Wednesday and early today
  
• Additional
  waves of rain will impact central and northern Argentina through the next week to ten days bringing beneficial moisture to many areas
• Central
  Brazil will continue to dry down benefiting fieldwork of all kinds from Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana to Minas Gerais
• U.S.
  southwestern Plains will continue dry biased over the next ten days
• Waves
  of rain and snow will occur lightly across the central U.S. Plains Friday through the weekend bringing some moisture to Nebraska, northern Kansas and parts of northeastern Colorado
  
• April
  will turn wetter in the southern Plains favoring a boost in soil moisture from South Texas through the Blacklands to the heart of Oklahoma
  
• Abundant
  rain in the next ten days in the lower and eastern Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin will lead to local flooding
• California
  precipitation will continue into next week
• West
  Texas precipitation will be minimal for the next ten days
• North
  Africa will remain dry for the next ten days and limited rain is likely in eastern Spain
• Europe
  is advertised wetter today relative to that of earlier this week outside of Spain
• Western
  CIS crop areas will see more frequent rain and some snow this weekend and next week while temperatures are warm enough to continue melting snow
• India’s
  far northern wheat areas will be negatively impacted by rain and thunderstorms Friday into the weekend
• No
  significant changes were noted in Australia, China, South Africa or the Southeast Asian nations overnight

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Thursday,
March 23:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Rabobank
  Farm2Fork Summit, Sydney
• Russian
  Grain Union holds conference in Kazan
• Brazil’s
  Unica may release cane crush and sugar output data (tentative)
• USDA
  red meat production, 3pm
• US
  cold storage data for pork, poultry and beef, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Indonesia

Friday,
March 24:

• Marine
  Insurance London conference
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer’s
  weekly crop conditions reports
• US
  poultry slaughter
• HOLIDAY:
  Argentina

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

USDA
export sales

Marketing
year high sales were reported for corn and soybean oil. Soybean sales were second lowest for the marketing year, for 2022-23. The corn sales oof nearly 3.1 million tons included 2.245 million tons for Canada and 683,000 tons for Japan. Soybean oil sales were
mostly for Mexico. Soybean sales included many countries reshuffling their books. Soybean meal sales of 121,100 tons were below a range of expectations and shipments were 269,300 tons. All wheat sales for 2022-23 were a poor 125,600 tons. Sorghum sales were
negative 3,600 tons. Pork sales were a good 38,000 tons and were primarily for Mexico and Canada.

 

 

 

Macros

US
February Building Permits Revised To +15.8% From +13.8%, Annual Rate To 1.550 Mln Units From 1.524 Mln Units

US
Initial Jobless Claims Mar 18: 191K (exp 198K; prev 192K)

Continuing
Claims Mar 11: 1694K (exp 1691K; prev 1684K)

US
Current Account Balance (USD) Q4: -206.8B (exp -213.3B; PREV -217.7.1B)

US
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Feb: -0.19 (exp 0.10; prev 0.23)

 

 

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures are higher with nearby spreads again firm.

·        
Sweden reported an outbreak of H5N1 bird flu on a farm in the south of the country, killing 1,137 birds and another culling of 23,598-strong flock.

·        
US weekly ethanol production fell 17,000 barrels to 997,000, lowest since January 6, and stocks decreased 206,000 barrels to 26.188 million. For comparison, a
Bloomberg
poll looked for weekly US ethanol production to be up 8,000 thousand and stocks down 400,000 barrels.

·        
U of I: A Solid Year for Ethanol Production Profits in 2022

Irwin,
S. “A Solid Year for Ethanol Production Profits in 2022.” farmdoc daily (13):52, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, March 22, 2023.

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2023/03/a-solid-year-for-ethanol-production-profits-in-2022.html

·        
The USDA Broiler Report showed eggs set in the US up slightly from year ago and chicks placed also up slightly. Cumulative placements were up 1 percent from the same period a year earlier.

·        
CME hog futures hit a contract low on Wednesday.

·        
The USDA Attaché estimated Mexico corn production at 27.4 million tons for 2023-24, unchanged from their 2022-23 estimate.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain%20and%20Feed%20Annual_Mexico%20City_Mexico_MX2023-0011

 

Export
developments.

• None
  reported

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans are mixed with bear spreading a feature. May futures hit its lowest level since late December 2022.

·        
Abiove estimated Brazil soybean production and exports at 153.6 million tons and 92.3 million tons, respectively, up 1 million and 300,000 tons from previous. Brazil harvest progress is running above 50 percent. Crush was pegged
at 52.5 million tons, 1.6 million above 2022.

·        
Soybean meal is higher and SBO lower. Palm oil futures fell to more than 6-month low. A combination of lower outside related vegetable oil markets, lower mineral oil, and uptrend in palm yield trends, have been weighing on palm
oil futures. This is spilling over into the US soybean oil market.

·        
Malaysia kept its CPO export duty unchanged at 8 percent for the month of April. The reference price was set at 4,031.45 ringgit ($913.64) per ton.

·        
Malaysia June palm futures were down 95 ringgit to 3,569 and June cash was down $5 at $880/ton. 

• China
  May soybean futures were up 0.4%, meal down 1.4%, SBO down 1.5% and palm oil futures down 2.1%.

·        
Nearby Rotterdam vegetable oils were 20-35 euros higher from this time yesterday morning and meal 6-10.50 euros lower.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 2666 points this morning and meal $2.50 short ton higher.

·        
Argentina soybean crush is slow amid lackluster producer selling. Sep-Feb Argentina crush fell to 15.2 million tons from 18.1 million year earlier, according to Oil World.

 

Export
Developments

·        
None reported

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are higher led by the KC contract on bottom picking after prices fell sharply on Wednesday. The USD turned slightly higher. May KC wheat was trading near a record $1.4775/bu above May Chicago. On a rolling basis
it’s the highest premium since 2014.

·        
Matif wheat volume was large yesterday. Prices hit a multi-month low.

·        
Paris May wheat was down 0.50 euro earlier at 247.50 per ton.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Turkey’s TMO seeks 695,000 tons of red milling wheat on March 28 for shipment May 18 to June 16 and June 12 to July 10.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on March 28 for Sep-Oct shipment.

·        
China plans to auction off 140,000 tons of wheat from state reserves on March 29.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Results awaited: South Korea seeks 121,800 tons of rice, most of it from China.

 

 

Export Sales Highlights

This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period March 10-16, 2023.

Wheat: 
Net sales of 125,600 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 63 percent from the previous week and 59 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (74,900 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), China (73,600 MT, including 65,000 MT switched
from unknown destinations), Ecuador (37,900 MT, including 34,700 MT switched from unknown destinations), Algeria (33,000 MT), and the Philippines (26,600 MT, including 23,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations
(142,700 MT), Nigeria (25,000 MT), and Panama (100 MT). Net sales of 13,000 MT for 2023/2024 were reported for Trinidad and Tobago (8,900 MT), Ecuador (4,000 MT), and Panama (100 MT). Exports of 361,600 MT were up 44 percent from the previous week, but down
8 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (68,300 MT), Mexico (52,600 MT), the Philippines (48,600 MT), Taiwan (47,500 MT), and Ecuador (37,900 MT).

Corn:  Net sales of 3,095,900 MT for 2022/2023–a marketing-year
high–were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (2,245,200 MT, including 123,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (683,000 MT, including 94,400 MT switched from unknown destinations
and decreases of 122,100 MT), Mexico (224,900 MT, including decreases of 3,600 MT), Colombia (54,100 MT, including decreases of 42,200 MT), and the Dominican Republic (51,200 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (261,400 MT), Italy (35,000
MT), Guatemala (7,100 MT), and Costa Rica (3,500 MT). Net sales of 93,000 MT for 2023/2024 were reported for Mexico (80,000 MT), Japan (10,000 MT), and unknown destinations (3,000 MT). Exports of 1,381,300 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 23 percent from
the previous week and 57 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (395,600 MT), Japan (304,700 MT), China (201,900 MT), Colombia (116,900 MT), and South Korea (67,600 MT).

Optional Origin Sales: 
For 2022/2023, the current outstanding balance of 140,000 MT were for South Korea (100,000 MT) and Egypt (40,000 MT).

Export Adjustments: 
Accumulated exports of corn to Colombia were adjusted down 41,145 MT for week ending March 9th. This shipment was reported in error. 

Barley:  No net sales or exports were reported for
the week.

Sorghum: 
Total net sales reductions of 3,600 MT for 2022/2023–a marketing-year low–were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Decreases were for China. Exports of 49,400 MT were down 32 percent from the previous week and 34 percent
from the prior 4-week average. The destination was to China.

Rice:  Net sales of 14,900 MT for 2022/2023 were down
42 percent from the previous week and 73 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Guatemala (6,200 MT), El Salvador (4,000 MT), Canada (2,400 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Saudi Arabia (800 MT, including decreases of 700 MT),
and Mexico (500 MT). Exports of 14,300 MT were up 37 percent from the previous week, but down 76 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Guatemala (6,200 MT), Mexico (3,800 MT), Canada (2,300 MT), Saudi Arabia (800 MT), and
Jordan (500 MT).

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 152,500 MT for 2022/2023 were down 77 percent from the previous week and 55 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (137,700 MT, including 126,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 6,500 MT), Mexico
(76,700 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), the Netherlands (65,000 MT, including 62,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (52,800 MT, including decreases of 18,000 MT), and Algeria (42,500 MT, including 45,000 MT switched from unknown destinations
and decreases of 2,500 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (222,000 MT). Net sales of 199,000 MT for 2023/2024 were reported for unknown destinations (132,000 MT) and China (67,000 MT). Exports of 704,300 MT were down 8 percent
from the previous week and 26 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (420,900 MT), the Netherlands (65,000 MT), Egypt (50,300 MT), Algeria (42,500 MT), and Mexico (42,500 MT). 

Optional Origin Sales: 
For 2022/2023, the current outstanding balance of 300 MT, all South Korea.

Export for Own Account:
 For 2022/2023, the current exports for own account outstanding balance of 1,600 MT are for Canada (1,500 MT) and Taiwan (100 MT).

Export Adjustments: 
Accumulated exports of soybeans to Colombia were adjusted down 9,624 MT for week ending March 9th. This shipment was reported in error. 

Soybean Cake and Meal: 
Net sales of 121,100 MT for 2022/2023 were down 45 percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Canada (33,400 MT, including decreases of 1,800 MT), the Philippines (19,700 MT, including decreases of
300 MT), Venezuela (12,500 MT), Costa Rica (12,000 MT), and Panama (6,900 MT), were offset by reductions for Japan (1,600 MT). Exports of 269,300 MT were down 20 percent from the previous week, but up 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations
were primarily to Chile (49,300 MT), Colombia (49,000 MT), Poland (47,700 MT), Ecuador (31,900 MT), and Mexico (29,700 MT).

Late Reporting: 
For 2022/2023, net sales totaling 2,000 MT of soybean cake and meal were reported late for Malaysia. Exports of 1,600 MT were late to Malaysia.

Soybean Oil: 
Net sales of 10,800 MT for 2022/2023–a marketing-year high–were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (10,700 MT) and Canada (100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 300 MT were
down 7 percent from the previous week and 80 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destination was to Canada.

Cotton: 
Net sales of 310,200 RB for 2022/2023 were up 38 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (115,300 RB, including 2,600 RB switched from South Korea, 800 RB switched from China, 300 RB switched
from Japan, and decreases of 100 RB), China (95,900 RB, including 900 RB switched from Pakistan), Bangladesh (30,000 RB), Turkey (25,100 RB), and Pakistan (15,700 RB, including decreases of 4,700 RB), were offset by reductions for Guatemala (14,000 RB). Net
sales of 21,300 RB for 2023/2024 were reported for Guatemala (9,600 RB), Japan (5,300 RB), Pakistan (4,400 RB), Vietnam (1,300 RB), and Peru (700 RB). Exports of 272,500 RB were unchanged from the previous week, but up 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.
The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (92,300 RB), Pakistan (42,100 RB), Turkey (38,400 RB), China (30,100 RB), and Mexico (15,400 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 16,900 RB for 2022/2023–a marketing-year high–were up noticeably from the previous week
and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for India (11,200 RB), China (3,200 RB), Pakistan (1,000 RB), Thailand (700 RB), and Guatemala (400 RB). Total net sales of 400 RB for 2023/2024 were for Japan. Exports of 7,100 RB were up noticeably
from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (1,500 RB), India (1,500 RB), Peru (900 RB), Turkey (900 RB), and Vietnam (900 RB). 

Optional Origin Sales:
 For 2022/2023, the current outstanding balance of 7,300 RB, all Malaysia.

Export for Own Account:
 For 2022/2023, new exports for own account totaling 17,300 RB were to China (15,100 RB) and Vietnam (2,200 RB).
Exports for own account totaling 2,500 RB to China were applied to new or outstanding sales. The current exports for own account outstanding balance of 115,700 RB are for China (86,900 RB), Vietnam (16,200 RB), Pakistan (5,000 RB), Turkey (3,700 RB), South
Korea (2,400 RB), and India (1,500 RB).

Hides and Skins: 
Net sales of 328,100 pieces for 2023 were down 3 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (196,700 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 20,800 pieces), Mexico (74,900 whole cattle hides,
including decreases of 2,300 pieces), South Korea (43,800 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 1,700 pieces), Turkey (7,100 whole cattle hides), and Thailand (3,900 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 400 pieces), were offset by reductions primarily
for Italy (1,500 pieces), Brazil (400 pieces), and Taiwan (400 pieces). In addition, total net sales reductions of 400 kip skins were for Canada. Exports of 393,800 pieces were down 13 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (226,500 pieces), South Korea (65,700 pieces), Mexico (44,700 pieces), Brazil (20,600 pieces), and Italy (10,800 pieces). Exports of 2,600 kip skins were to Canada.

Net sales of 145,100 wet blues for 2023 were up 68 percent from the previous week and 22 percent from the prior 4-week
average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (48,300 unsplit), Brazil (42,900 grain splits, 100 unsplit, and decreases of 100 grain splits), China (29,200 unsplit), Taiwan (19,500 unsplit), and Mexico (3,400 unsplit, including decreases of 100 unsplit), were offset
by reductions for Hong Kong (100 unsplit). Exports of 117,300 wet blues were down 26 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Italy (37,600 unsplit), China (25,400 unsplit), Vietnam (17,600
unsplit), Thailand (14,800 unsplit), and Brazil (6,300 unsplit and 2,000 grain splits). Total net sales of 224,100 splits were for Vietnam. No exports of splits were reported for the week.

 

Beef:  Net sales of 18,600 MT for 2023 were up 5 percent
from the previous week and 59 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for South Korea (10,800 MT, including decreases of 1,700 MT), Japan (3,600 MT, including decreases of 900 MT), China (1,500 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Taiwan
(800 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), and Hong Kong (800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for the United Kingdom (100 MT). Exports of 13,500 MT were down 15 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week
average. The destinations were primarily to Japan (3,500 MT), South Korea (3,200 MT), China (2,300 MT), Mexico (1,300 MT), and Taiwan (900 MT).

Pork: 
Net sales of 38,000 MT for 2023 were up 7 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico (18,400 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Canada (4,800 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Japan (4,400
MT, including decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (3,400 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), and Australia (1,800 MT). Exports of 30,500 MT were up 3 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily
to Mexico (13,200 MT), China (4,400 MT), Japan (3,900 MT), South Korea (2,600 MT), and Canada (1,500 MT).

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  3/16/2023

 

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	48.8	696.7	1,586.8	43.6	4,161.9	5,873.3	0.1	112.4
SRW	24.0	491.4	567.6	57.3	2,244.2	2,188.3	7.5	381.8
HRS	6.4	924.8	1,067.2	111.8	4,486.8	4,112.0	5.4	94.9
WHITE	13.3	772.4	503.8	148.9	3,717.5	2,803.4	0.0	43.2
DURUM	33.0	77.8	18.8	0.0	290.5	169.7	0.0	36.9
TOTAL	125.6	2,963.0	3,744.1	361.6	14,900.7	15,146.7	13.0	669.2
BARLEY	0.0	3.9	13.9	0.0	8.0	14.7	0.0	6.0
CORN	3,095.9	16,354.1	22,719.4	1,381.3	18,586.9	30,297.9	93.0	1,952.4
SORGHUM	-3.6	855.0	3,274.7	49.4	642.7	3,501.7	0.0	63.0
SOYBEANS	152.5	5,944.1	11,161.5	704.3	43,533.7	42,874.7	199.0	1,745.2
SOY MEAL	121.1	2,666.0	3,223.1	269.3	5,720.5	5,829.4	0.0	264.0
SOY OIL	10.8	41.3	167.2	0.3	32.8	435.2	0.0	0.6
RICE
L G RGH	10.2	158.4	234.2	9.0	426.2	922.9	0.0	0.0
M S RGH	0.0	31.3	3.5	0.8	20.6	10.7	0.0	5.0
L G BRN	1.3	5.1	16.5	0.4	15.0	33.2	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	0.0	35.8	43.9	0.1	8.8	42.3	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	1.5	104.6	73.9	2.4	442.3	569.2	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	1.8	141.4	240.4	1.7	179.1	257.5	0.0	13.0
TOTAL	14.9	476.5	612.5	14.3	1,091.9	1,835.9	0.0	18.0
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	310.2	4,958.3	7,670.9	272.5	6,220.8	6,292.4	21.3	1,360.0
PIMA	16.9	56.1	160.7	7.1	108.4	270.5	0.4	3.9