FI Morning Grain Comments 03/24/23

PDF attached

Private
exporters reported sales of 204,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year. One week away from USDA’s March 1 stocks and planting intention reports. USD is very strong, WTI crude sharply lower and US equities pointing
towards a lower open. Ongoing
global financial concerns are pressuring bank stocks this morning. CBOT May soybeans reached an October 28, 2022, low overnight on follow through selling. Lower China futures added to the negative undertone. Malaysian palm was lower overnight and for the
week down 10.2 percent. CBOT products are mixed with SBO gaining on meal. Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 104 points (204 higher for the week to date) this morning and meal $0.60 short ton higher ($0.20 higher for the week). Corn futures are
higher with nearby spreads again firm. US wheat futures are higher this morning. Ongoing concerns over poor US winter wheat crop conditions and spreading is supporting US wheat prices. Paris May wheat is sharply higher.

Weather

Map

Description automatically generated

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MARCH 24, 2023

Another
storm of size may evolve in the northeastern U.S. Plains and upper Midwest in the second half of next week, although the system is almost a week away leaving time for adjustment

Limited
snow melt will occur in the Red River Basin and upper Mississippi River Basin over the next five days, but some melting is expected for a few hours each afternoon before strong freezes occur at night

Southwestern
U.S. hard red winter wheat areas will be dry biased for much of the next ten days along with West Texas cotton, corn and sorghum areas
Rain
will fall more often and more significantly in the last days of March and April from South Texas through the Blacklands and Coastal Bend regions of Texas into eastern Oklahoma and a part of the U.S. Midwest
Wet
weather in the Delta, Lower and eastern Midwest and Tennessee River will slow farming activity through the balance of March and into early April
Canada’s
Prairies will continue cold biased along with the far northern U.S. Plains and precipitation will be restricted into early next week
Argentina
will see waves of rain through the next two weeks with central and northern areas favored for this first week
Central
Brazil crop areas will continue drying out in the next week and then there will be some increase in precipitation once again
North
Africa and much of Spain will be dry biased during the next ten days
Other
areas in Europe will get waves of rain
Western
CIS crop areas will trend wetter later this weekend and especially next week and that precipitation along with melting snow may induce some areas of more significant flooding
India
still has more rain coming up across the far north today into the weekend raising more concern over winter wheat and a few other crop conditions
No
changes of significance were noted overnight for China, Australia or South Africa

Source:
World Weather, INC.

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Friday,
March 24:

Marine
Insurance London conference
ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
FranceAgriMer’s
weekly crop conditions reports
US
poultry slaughter
HOLIDAY:
Argentina

Monday,
March 27:

USDA
export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am

Tuesday,
March 28:

EU
weekly grain, oilseed import and export data

Wednesday,
March 29:

EIA
weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
Coffee,
rice and rubber exports from Vietnam

Thursday,
March 30:

USDA
weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
Port
of Rouen data on French grain exports
USDA
hogs & pigs inventory, 3pm
HOLIDAY:
India

Friday,
March 31:

US
prospective planting data for several crops, including corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, barley and rice, noon
USDA’s
quarterly stockpiles data for corn, soybeans, wheat, barley and sorghum
ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
FranceAgriMer’s
weekly crop condition report
Malaysia’s
March palm oil export data
US
agricultural prices paid and received, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

Macros

US
Durable Goods Orders Feb P: -1.0% (exp 0.2%; prev -4.5%)

Durable
Ex Transportation Feb P: 0.0% (exp 0.2%; prev 0.8%)

Capital
Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Feb P: 0.2% (exp -0.2%; prev 0.8%)

Capital
Goods Nondef Ex Air Feb P: 0.0% (exp 0.2%; prev 1.1%)

Canadian
Retail Sales (M/M) Jan: 1.4% (exp 0.7%; prev 0.5%)

Retail
Sales Ex Auto (M/M) Jan: 0.9% (exp 0.6%; prevr -0.7%)

Canada
Wholesales Fell 1.6% M/M In February – StatCan Flash Estimate

–
Factory Sales Fell 2.8% M/M In February

Corn

·
Corn futures are higher with nearby spreads again firm. Higher wheat is spilling over into corn.

·
May corn futures as of the electronic close are up 2.75 cents for the week to date, while soybeans are off 65.75 cents or 4.5%.

·
The BA Grains Exchange left their Argentina corn production estimate unchanged at 36 million tons.

Export
developments.

Private
exporters reported sales of 204,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

Soybeans

·
May soybeans reached an October 28, 2022, low overnight on follow through selling. The USD is sharply higher. Lower China futures added to the negative undertone. Talk of African swine fever cases in China startled China meal
futures traders this week. Malaysian palm was lower overnight and for the week down 10.2 percent.

·
CBOT products are mixed with SBO gaining on meal.

·
Yesterday there was talk of Brazil soybeans sold to a US east coast end user, but we could not verify that. Every year we come across either corn or soybean boats were bought but the timing this year is earlier than usual.

·
The BA Grains Exchange left their Argentina soybean production estimate unchanged at 25 million tons.

·
The Rosario Grains Exchange looks for Argentina soybean imports to increase 139% to 7.9 million tons this year, most coming from Brazil and Paraguay. A flood of imports should boost crush that will provide exportable meal and
oil this year.

·
Abiove estimated Brazil soybean production and exports at 153.6 million tons and 92.3 million tons, respectively, up 1 million and 300,000 tons from previous. Brazil harvest progress is running above 50 percent. Crush was pegged
at 52.5 million tons, 1.6 million above 2022.

·
Malaysia June palm futures were down 57 ringgit to 3,512 and June cash was unchanged at $880/ton.

China
May soybean futures were down 0.5%, meal down 1.9%, SBO down 1.7% and palm oil futures down 1.6%.

·
Nearby Rotterdam vegetable oils were sharply lower for SBO and higher for RSO from this time yesterday morning and meal 10.50-14.50 euros lower.

·
Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 104 points (204 higher for the week to date) this morning and meal $0.60 short ton higher ($0.20 higher for the week).

Export
Developments

·
None reported

Wheat

·
US wheat futures are higher this morning. Ongoing concerns over poor US winter wheat crop conditions and spreading is supporting US wheat prices. There are renewed concerns Russia could curb grain and fertilizer exports.

·
(Reuters) – Russia could extend restrictions on fertilizer exports for six months until November to help support the domestic market, Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said on Friday.

·
On Monday USDA will release selected state ratings and the following week put out a initial US rating. With little change in the US drought monitor and precipitation occurring this week across the central and upper Great Plains,
some states may post an increase in ratings early next week, but southwestern states may stay the same.

·
Paris May wheat was up 9.25 euros earlier at 254.25 per ton.

·
French winter wheat crop ratings slipped 1 point as of March 20 from the previous week to 94 percent and compare to 92 percent year earlier. Barley was rated 93%, up one point.