FI Morning Grain Comments 03/25/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Note
Europe changes their clocks this Sunday.

 

Private
exporters reported sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

 

Mixed
trade in CBOT agriculture futures this morning as traders continue to digest the grain trade flow implications from the Black Sea shipping standstill. Not all grain shipments have completely stopped. We are hearing some sunflower oil is trying to make its
way out of Ukraine through rail to other countries. Soybean oil softened despite another higher close in palm futures. Wheat is catching a bid although lack of US export developments may limit upside. Corn was mixed earlier. Meal is higher and soybeans lower.
News is fairly light. USD is lower,
WTI crude was about $2.00 lower and US equities mostly higher. There were no major export developments. Turkey started buying corn from domestic warehouses. They are seeking 175,000 tons. Malaysian palm oil gained 7 percent this week. Look for a choppy trade.

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:
World Weather Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
March 25:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, ~2:30pm
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Malaysia’s
  March 1-25 palm oil export data
• U.S.
  cattle on feed, poultry slaughter

Monday,
March 28:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals

Tuesday,
March 29:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Vietnam’s
  General Statistics Department releases March export data for coffee, rice and rubber

Wednesday,
March 30:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• USDA
  hogs and pigs inventory, 3pm

Thursday,
March 31:

• U.S.
  annual acreage prospective planting data for various farm commodities, including wheat, barley, corn, cotton, soybeans and sunflower, noon
• USDA
  quarterly stockpile data for wheat, barley, corn, oats, soybeans and sorghum, noon
• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, 3pm
• Malaysia’s
  March palm oil export data

Friday,
April 1:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Australia
  Commodity Index
• USDA
  soybean crush, DDGS output, corn for ethanol, 3pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
US corn futures were mixed at the electronic close on weaker WTI crude and higher wheat. News is thin.

·        
May CBOT corn
so far failed to trade $7.50 (it did previous 16 sessions).

·        
Ukraine lifted the requirement for export licenses for corn and sunflower oil for 2021-22 season.  Export restrictions remain in place for other staple crops to ensure domestic supplies.

 

Export
developments.

• Turkey
  started buying corn from domestic warehouses. Results awaited in Turkey seeking 325,000 tons of corn. Optional origin for April 8 and May 5 shipment.  They also seek 175 tons of local corn.  500k total makes us wonder if they are covered for reserves.
  

 

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT May
soybeans and soybean oil are lower in part to weaker WTI crude oil while ongoing concerns over Argentina soybean meal supplies are liftin CBOT meal higher. US SBM basis remains firm.

·        
Ukraine lifted the requirement for export licenses for corn and sunflower oil for 2021-22 season due to ample supplies. Export restrictions remain in place for other staple crops to ensure domestic supplies.

·        
We are hearing some sunflower oil is trying to make its way out of Ukraine through rail.

·        
AmSpec reported Malaysian March 1-25 palm exports at 1.009 million tons, down nearly 5 percent from the same period month ago. ITS shows a 4.9% decrease.

·        
Malaysian palm oil gained 7 percent this week.

·        
June Malaysian palm oil settled 84 ringgit higher to 6,027. Cash palm was up $20/ton to $1,550 ton (1.3%).

·        
From this time yesterday morning Rotterdam meal from SA were unchanged to 2 euros higher and vegetable oils mixed. 

·        
China May soybeans were down 0.2%, meal down 0.9%, soybean oil lower by 2.0% and palm down 2%.

·        
Offshore values are leading SBO 125 points higher (128 higher for the week to date) and meal $0.60 short ton lower ($2.80 lower for the week). 

 

Export
Developments

• Under
  the 24-hour reporting system, private exporters reported sales of 132,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021-22 marketing year.
• Qatar
  seeks to buy 960k cartons of corn oil in a tender closing April 4.

 

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are higher on ongoing Black Sea shipping concerns and major importers slow to switch to alternative origins. US export demand is slow and may limit upside.

·        
There were no major export developments.

·        
Ukraine planted 150,000 hectares of spring grains so far this season.

·        
Russia’s wheat export duty as of March 30 increases to $87 from $86.40 per ton. Barley decreases $75.80 from $79.60 per ton and corn will rise to $58.30 from $53.20 per ton.

·        
Iran plans to send wheat to Lebanon where stocks are very thin.

·        
French soft wheat conditions were rated 92 percent G/E as of March 21, unchanged from the previous week and up from 87 percent year earlier. Winter barley and durum wheat are both 88%.

·        
May Paris wheat futures were up 5.25 euros to 381.50 euros.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Earlier this week Thailand bought 70,000 tons of feed wheat from India at $369/ton CIFLO (Cost, Insurance and Freight Liner Out) for May shipment.

·        
Qatar seeks 105,000 tons of optional origin animal feed barley on March 27 shipment in April, May and June. 

·        
Bangladesh is in for 50,000 tons of wheat with a deadline of April 4.

·        
Results awaited: Iraq extended their deadline to buy 50,000 tons of hard milling wheat until March 22.

 

Rice/Other

·        
(Bloomberg) — Qatar is seeking to buy 1.2m bags of rice in a tender that closes April 4, according to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry’s website.  Qatar also seeks to buy 960k cartons of corn oil in a tender closing April
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