FI Morning Grain Comments 03/28/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Private
exporters reported the following activity:

-132,000
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year

-127,920
metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations.  Of the total, 77,120 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year and 50,800 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

US
CBOT agriculture futures are lower with some light at the end of the tunnel for the Ukraine/Russia situation as peace talks advance. China’s Shanghai is on Covid lockdown that could slow soybean demand. WTI crude oil is down nearly $6.50. May CBOT corn traded
at $7.50 for the 18^th consecutive session. The soybean complex is lower along with a sharply lower wheat trade. Offshore values are leading SBO 95 points lower and meal $6.30 short ton lower. 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

Argentina
will see dry weather most often through the next two weeks allowing for fieldwork to advance well around two rounds of rain that, along with soil moisture in place today, is expected to favorably support the needs of most crops with some exceptions in west-central
and southwestern areas. 

Source:
World Weather Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
March 28:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals

Tuesday,
March 29:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Vietnam’s
  General Statistics Department releases March export data for coffee, rice and rubber

Wednesday,
March 30:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• USDA
  hogs and pigs inventory, 3pm

Thursday,
March 31:

• U.S.
  annual acreage prospective planting data for various farm commodities, including wheat, barley, corn, cotton, soybeans and sunflower, noon
• USDA
  quarterly stockpile data for wheat, barley, corn, oats, soybeans and sorghum, noon
• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, 3pm
• Malaysia’s
  March palm oil export data

Friday,
April 1:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Australia
  Commodity Index
• USDA
  soybean crush, DDGS output, corn for ethanol, 3pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CFTC
Commitment of Traders

Combined
soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, corn, soft wheat and KC wheat net long managed money position was again a record at 808,835 contracts. As true for the combined soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, corn, soft wheat and KC wheat net long index fund position
at a record 1,171,253 contracts. Open interest for the week ending 3/22 was up sharply for corn.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Wholesale Inventories (M/M) Feb P: 2.1% (est 1.2%; prev 0.8%; prevR 1.0%)

US
Retail Inventories (M/M) Feb: 1.1% (est 1.4%; prev 1.9%)

US
Advance Goods Trade Balance Feb: -$106.6Bln (est -$106.3Bln; prev -$107.6Bln)

 

Corn

·        
US corn futures are lower with some light at the end of the tunnel for the Ukraine/Russia situation. WTI crude oil is down nearly $6.50.

·        
May CBOT corn
traded at $7.50 for the 18^th consecutive session.

·        
We read reports over the weekend many Ukraine storage and handling facilities are destroyed so it is unknown how long it will take them to recover.

·        
Ukraine exported some corn by train to Europe, according to APK-Inform. Prices for buyers from Poland and the Baltic States were $250 to $265 per ton and $275 per ton for Slovakia.

·        
USDA Cattle on Feed as of March 1 was 12.163 million head or 101.4 percent from year ago, slightly higher than trade expectations. Placements were 109.3 percent, 3.2 percentage points above a trade guess, Marketings were 0.7 point
higher than trade expectations. The report is slightly friendly for corn for feed demand.

 

 

Export
developments.

• Turkey
  bought 300,000 tons of optional origin corn at $400.87/ton c&f for April 8 and May 5 shipment.
  
• Private
  exporters reported the following activity:

-127,920
metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations.  Of the total, 77,120 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year and 50,800 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

(Bloomberg)
— March 1 hog inventory seen falling to 73.05m head vs 73.93m head in the same period last year, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of eight analysts. That would be the sixth straight quarter of y/y declines. Breeding inventory seen down 0.1% y/y,
and market hogs seen falling 1.3% y/y. The pig crop seen rising 1.3% y/y. Dec.-Feb. farrowing seen up slightly (+0.4%) y/y, while farrowing intentions for March-May seen down slightly (-0.3%). Report is due out on March 30.

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT May
soybeans, meal, and soybean are lower on easing concerns over the Ukraine/Russia situation and Covid-19 lockdown concerns in China.

·        
China locked down a large city, Shanghai, over the weekend due to covid, potentially slowing imported soybean unloading’s. 26 million people reside in Shanghai.

·        
China plans to sell about 500,000 tons of soybeans on April 1.

·        
The EU will see cold temperatures later this week that may impact the rapeseed crop as they begun to flower.

·        
Cargo surveyor SGS reported month to date March 25 Malaysian palm exports at 1,030,943 tons, 54,360 tons below the same period a month ago or down 5.0%, and 16,781 tons above the same period a year ago or up 1.7%.

·        
June Malaysian palm oil settled 49 ringgit lower to 5,978, Cash palm was unchanged at $1,550/ton.

·        
From this time yesterday morning Rotterdam meal from SA were mixed and vegetable oils unchanged to 20+ euros lower. 

·        
China May soybeans were down 0.3%, meal down 1.7%, soybean oil up 0.5% and palm up 1%.

·        
Offshore values are leading SBO 95 points lower and meal $6.30 short ton lower. 

 

Export
Developments

• Qatar
  seeks to buy 960k cartons of corn oil in a tender closing April 4.
• Private
  exporters reported the following activity:

-132,000
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are seeing steep losses on Ukraine/ Russia headlines and hope that Black Sea wheat trade will resume in the near future.

·        
China sold 546,015 tons of wheat out of auction. The average selling price of the wheat was 2,884 yuan ($453.05) per ton.

·        
May Paris wheat futures were down 13.50 euros to 371.75 euros.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Results awaited: Qatar seeks 105,000 tons of optional origin animal feed barley on March 27 shipment in April, May and June. 

·        
Bangladesh is in for 50,000 tons of wheat with a deadline of April 4.

 

Rice/Other

·        
US cotton futures hit a decade high on US drought concerns and strong demand from China.

·        
China sold 9,727 tons of rice out of auction. The average selling price of the rice was 2,644 yuan ($415.34) per ton.

·        
(Bloomberg) — Qatar is seeking to buy 1.2m bags of rice in a tender that closes April 4, according to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry’s website.  Qatar also seeks to buy 960k cartons of corn oil in a tender closing April
4