FI Morning Grain Comments 03/28/23

PDF attached

USDA
reported private exporters reported sales of 136,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year. WTI crude oil was slightly higher earlier, gold higher, Dow Jones lower, and the USD more than 30 points lower. Higher soybean
meal is supporting soybeans while soybean oil is lower despite a 3 percent gain in palm oil futures. Offshore values were leading SBO lower by about 87 points this morning and meal $3.40 short ton higher. Corn was lower and wheat mostly higher. The KC/Chicago
wheat spread hit a new 12-year high. Selected US state winter wheat ratings posted a decline (CO & TX) from the previous week while OK improved. KS was unchanged.

Fund
estimates as of March 27

Weather

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MARCH 28, 2023

U.S.
hard red winter weather in the southwestern Plains and West Texas cotton, corn and sorghum areas will continue to experience dry or mostly dry weather over the next ten days
U.S.
Red River Basin areas of the North will experience two new storm systems over the coming week that will add more moisture to the region’s flood potential
Wet
biased conditions continue in the Delta, lower Midwest and Tennessee River Basin during the next ten days raising concern over field working delays
California
and western parts of Oregon and Washington will experience plenty of moisture for a while
Argentina’s
weather will be favorably mixed with next week wettest
Brazil
weather will also be favorably mixed with net drying continuing for a while longer in center south crop areas favoring late season soybean harvesting

Safrinha
crops should be developing favorably

Northern
India still has one more round of rain coming up for late this week in some of its wheat country maintaining concern over the quality of that crop and a few others produced nearby
Northern
Pakistan and the Middle East are also wetter than usual and the moisture while beneficial for some winter crops and the planting of spring and summer crops some drier weather may soon be needed for early maturing crops to protect their quality
Western
CIS and much of Europe will be wetter biased for a while, but spring fieldwork is only just beginning in the south
Spain,
Portugal and northern Africa remain quite dry and little change is likely for ten days, even though a few showers may evolve in Tunisia and northeastern Algeria briefly next week
South
Africa and Australia weather outlooks are similar to those of Monday

Source:
World Weather, INC.

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Tuesday,
March 28:

EU
weekly grain, oilseed import and export data

Wednesday,
March 29:

EIA
weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
Coffee,
rice and rubber exports from Vietnam

Thursday,
March 30:

USDA
weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
Port
of Rouen data on French grain exports
USDA
hogs & pigs inventory, 3pm
HOLIDAY:
India

Friday,
March 31:

US
prospective planting data for several crops, including corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, barley and rice, noon
USDA’s
quarterly stockpiles data for corn, soybeans, wheat, barley and sorghum
ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
FranceAgriMer’s
weekly crop condition report
Malaysia’s
March palm oil export data
US
agricultural prices paid and received, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range

Wheat
392,484 versus 200000-45000 range

Corn
666,325 versus 700000-1400000 range

Soybeans
888,707 versus 250000-900000 range

Macros

Corn

·
CBOT corn futures were mostly lower at the electronic break on lack of fresh news and wheat/corn spreading. WTI crude oil was slightly higher earlier, gold higher, Dow Jones lower, and the USD more than 30 points lower.

·
Anec: Brazil March corn exports seen at 836,428 tons, down from 898,632 previous.

·
USDA US corn export inspections as of March 23, 2023 were 666,325 tons, below a range of trade expectations, below 1,192,093 tons previous week and compares to 1,614,664 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 262,390
tons, Colombia for 108,721 tons, and China for 68,152 tons.

·
USDA hogs and pigs report is due out on Thursday and a Bloomberg poll sees the US hag herd as of March 1 seen rising 0.4% from a year earlier to 72.97 million head. A Reuters poll see a 0.2% increase. Reuters trade estimates are
below the export development section.

Export
developments.

USDA
reported private exporters reported sales of 136,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

Soybeans

·
US soybeans are higher following a strong rally for soybean meal while soybean oil was near unchanged despite a 3 percent gain in palm oil futures. Offshore values suggest meal should gain over soybean oil.

·
We heard there was a large soybean meal trade within China. Details are lacking. Also noted was the overdone selling for soybean meal futures.

·
Anec: Brazil March soybean exports seen at 15.197 million tons, down from 15.388 previous. Meal exports 1.757 million tons, down from 1.787 million previous.

·
Cargo surveyor SGS reported March 1-25 Malaysian palm oil exports up 18.5 percent from the same period month ago.

·
(Reuters) – Indonesia plans to set its crude palm oil (CPO) reference price for the April 1-15 period at $898.29 per ton. That price would put the export tax and levy at $74 and $95 per ton respectively, unchanged from the current
level. A decree officially stating the reference price had yet to be published.

·
Malaysia June palm futures were down up 111 ringgit to 3,687 and June cash was higher by $30 at $910/ton.

China
May soybean futures were up 0.1%, meal up 0.2%, SBO up 1.4% and palm oil futures up 1.9%.

·
Nearby Rotterdam vegetable oils were mixed from this time yesterday morning and meal 4-13 euros higher.

·
Offshore values were leading SBO lower by about 87 points this morning and meal $3.40 short ton higher.

·
USDA US soybean export inspections as of March 23, 2023 were 888,707 tons, upper end of a range of trade expectations, above 719,532 tons previous week and compares to 631,604 tons year ago. Major countries included China for
506,532 tons, Mexico for 129,112 tons, and Germany for 69,131 tons.

·
AgRural estimated Brazil soybean harvest progress at 70 percent through Thursday, up 8 points from the previous week and compares to 75 percent last year.

Export
Developments

·
None reported

Wheat

·
US wheat futures are mostly higher. US crop conditions were mixed yesterday but a couple key state ratings declined. US weather turned slightly unfavorable for the US plains for this week but some southwestern wheat area will
see some precipitation.

·
The KC/Chicago wheat spread hit a new 12-year high.

·
Selected state winter wheat ratings were released late yesterday. Kansas was rated only 19 percent good/excellent (unchanged from previous week). Colorado winter wheat fell to 28 percent from 36 percent previous week. Oklahoma
increased to 34 percent from 29 percent. Texas decreased to 18 percent from 23 percent.

·
Paris May wheat was down 0.50 euro earlier at 266.00 per ton.

·
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of March 23, 2023, were 392,484 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 375,271 tons previous week and compares to 343,773 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 86,751
tons, China for 68,249 tons, and Korea Rep for 54,475 tons.