FI Morning Grain Comments 03/29/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

USDA
reported private exporters reported sales of 204,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year. Grains are lending support to soybeans this morning after Cargill said they plan to stop exporting Russian wheat exports. This
comes after Russia earlier suggested a cap on sunflower exports. US wheat futures hit a 4-week high. Soybeans are slightly higher from follow through soybean meal buying. Soybean oil eased a touch. Corn is higher from strength in wheat and Black Sea shipping
uncertainty. A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 4,000 thousand barrels to 1001k (989-1020 range) from the previous week and stocks down 196,000 barrels to 25.992 million.

 

Fund
estimates as of March 28

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MARCH 29, 2023

• No
  significant changes overnight
• U.S.
  hard red winter weather in the southwestern Plains and West Texas cotton, corn and sorghum areas will continue to experience dry or mostly dry weather over the next ten days
• U.S.
  Red River Basin areas of the North will experience two new storm systems over the coming week that will add more moisture to the region’s flood potential; the first is Thursday into Saturday and the second will be during mid-week next week
• Wet
  biased conditions continue in the Delta, lower Midwest and Tennessee River Basin during the next ten days raising concern over field working delays
• California
  and western parts of Oregon and Washington will experience plenty of moisture for a while
• Argentina’s
  weather will be favorably mixed with next week wettest
• Brazil
  weather will also be favorably mixed with net drying continuing for a while longer in center south crop areas favoring late season soybean harvesting
• Safrinha
  crops should be developing favorably
• Next
  week will trend wetter
• Northern
  India still has one more round of rain coming up for late this week in some of its wheat country maintaining concern over the quality of that crop and a few others produced nearby
  
• Western
  CIS and much of Europe will be wetter biased for a while, but spring fieldwork is only just beginning in the south
• Spain,
  Portugal and northern Africa remain quite dry and little change is likely for ten days, even though a few showers may evolve in Tunisia and northeastern Algeria briefly next week
  
• South
  Africa and Australia weather outlooks are similar to those of Monday
• China’s
  Yellow River Basin will get some welcome rain Sunday into Tuesday, although the precipitation event should weaken over the next couple of days

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Tuesday,
March 28:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data

Wednesday,
March 29:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Coffee,
  rice and rubber exports from Vietnam

Thursday,
March 30:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• USDA
  hogs & pigs inventory, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  India

Friday,
March 31:

• US
  prospective planting data for several crops, including corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, barley and rice, noon
• USDA’s
  quarterly stockpiles data for corn, soybeans, wheat, barley and sorghum
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer’s
  weekly crop condition report
• Malaysia’s
  March palm oil export data
• US
  agricultural prices paid and received, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn is higher following strength in wheat and additional sales to China.

·        
USDA reported private exporters reported sales of 204,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

·        
A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 4,000 thousand barrels to 1001k (989-1020 range) from the previous week and stocks down 196,000 barrels to 25.992 million.

·        
USDA hogs and pigs report is due out Thursday and a Bloomberg poll sees the US hag herd as of March 1 seen rising 0.4% from a year earlier to 72.97 million head. A Reuters poll see a 0.2% increase. Reuters trade estimates are
below the export development section.

 

 

Export
developments.

• USDA
  reported private exporters reported sales of 204,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

 

 

 

 

Soybeans

·        
US soybeans are higher from strength in meal. Soybean oil is lower as that market is catching a breather. There is talk US soybean acres may come in below trade expectations but with the current SX/CZ relationship, the trade average
of 88.242 million acres. Palm oil futures rose for the third consecutive day.

·        
Malaysia June palm futures were up 20 ringgit to 3,707 and June cash was lower by $5 at $905/ton. 

• China
  May soybean futures were down 0.5%, meal up 1.2%, SBO up 1.2% and palm oil futures up 1.3%.

·        
Nearby Rotterdam vegetable oils were unchanged to 40 euros higher from this time yesterday morning and meal 9-11 euros higher.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 37 points this morning and meal $3.50 short ton lower.

 

 

Export
Developments

·        
None reported

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are higher over Black Sea grain shipping uncertainty. Cargill plans to stop wheat exports out of Russia. It’s uncertain why they are stropping exports, but speculation surrounding financing was noted (banking).

·        
Paris May wheat was up 4.50 euros earlier at 266.50 per ton.

·        
EU wheat exports so far this year are up 8.5 percent year over year at 22.7 million tons (20.9 million tons year earlier).

·        
US will see cold temps across the upper Great Plains over the next few days.

 

 

Export
Developments.

·        
China will auction off 900,000 tons of wheat from state reserves on April 4.

·        
Then again, China will auction off 140,000 tons of wheat from state reserves on April 6.

·        
Jordan is getting offers for 120,000 tons of barley.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported