FI Morning Grain Comments 04/06/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Lower
trade in corn and soybean complex while US wheat was mixed at the electronic break. USD is higher, WTI crude slightly lower and US equities lower. USDA export sales showed a couple new-crop commodity cancellations by China. Other news is light pre-holiday.
Note some countries will be off on Monday in addition to Friday. CME trading hours:
https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/holiday-calendar.html

 

Fund
estimates as of April 5

 

 

Weather

 

 

 

 

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR APRIL 6, 2023

• Dryness
  will continue in North Africa, Spain and Portugal during the next ten days with some expansion into southern France
• The
  region will also be warmer than  usual
• Drying
  is also expected in the U.S. Midwest where temperatures will rise above normal firming the soil and improving spring planting prospects in the lower Midwest as well as the U.S. Delta
• Flooding
  will begin in north-central U.S. from eastern North Dakota and northeastern South Dakota to upper Michigan and parts of Wisconsin in this coming week as snowmelt occurs more aggressively in response to warmer temperatures
• Canada’s
  Prairies will experience warmer temperatures and a significant amount of snowmelt during the coming week as well
• U.S
  Delta and southeastern states will be too wet for a while through the weekend and into early next week before welcome drying and warming occurs later next week
• Western
  portions of the U.S. hard red winter wheat region will stay drier than usual through mid-month
• Showers
  and thunderstorms will develop from central Texas to eastern Kansas, Missouri and Iowa during the second half of next week and more likely in the following weekend
  
• Argentina
  will experience net drying in this coming week
• Brazil’s
  center south crop areas will get some welcome rain over the next week to ten days boosting topsoil moisture for Safrinha crop use after the monsoon withdraws later this month
• China’s
  winter and spring crop area in the Yellow River Basin, North China Plain and areas to the south should have favorable conditions for planting over the next two weeks, although there will be some additional rainfall periodically
• Western
  Russia will benefit from drier weather over the next week to ten days after becoming quite wet recently from rain, snow and melting snow
• Ukraine,
  Belarus and Russia’s Southern Region will experience periods of rain that will saturate the soil and delay spring planting, but the moisture will be very good for future crop development
• Southern
  Australia will receive some welcome showers during the coming ten days, but greater rain will eventually be needed to support wheat, barley and canola planting
• India,
  South Africa, Central Africa and Southeast Asia precipitation is expected to continue supportive of crop needs in each of those areas

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Thursday,
April 6:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• New
  Zealand commodity prices
• HOLIDAY:
  Argentina, Thailand

Friday,
April 7:

• FAO
  World Food Price Index, grains report
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer’s
  weekly crop condition report
• Good
  Friday holiday in several countries

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
export sales

Soybean
sales were disappointing with only 155,300 tons posted for old crop and a net reduction of 48,200 tons for new-crop, which is unusual. Old crop soybean sales included China (162,000 of which one cargo switched) and Germany (69,100). China cancelled a new-crop
soybean cargo.  Soybean meal sales were within expectations while soybean oil sales of 27,600 tons were above a range of expectations. Shipments of meal were very good at 363,200 tons, a marketing year high. USDA reported 1.247 million tons of corn was sold
for 2022-23, within expectations. China corn sales totaled 586,100 tons and unknown 164,500 tons. Pork sales were large at 53,200 tons, a marketing year high. China took 20,200 tons of pork and Mexico 14,300 tons. All-wheat sales of 193,600 tons for old crop
were ok but new-crop showed net reductions of 10,200 tons. For 2022-23, China switched from unknown destinations and there was a cargo also switched from unknown by Egypt. No sorghum sales were reported.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reuter
US ending stocks estimates:

 

Macros

US
Initial Jobless Claims Apr 1: 228K (est 200K; prev 198K)

US
Continuing Claims Mar 25: 1823K (est 1700K; prev 1689K)

Canada
Gains 34,700 Jobs In March, Jobless Rate Holds At 5.0% – RTRS 

 

 

Corn

·        
Corn is trending lower following weakness in soybeans and thin news pre-holiday. Some countries are on holiday starting today through Sunday. Many European countries will be on holiday Monday. Note USDA offices are open Friday
and CFTC COT report will be released tomorrow afternoon.

·        
US weather improves next week for the central and lower half of the US for summer fieldwork progress.

·        
The USDA Broiler Report showed broiler type eggs set in the US down slightly and chicks placed down slightly. Cumulative placements were up slightly from the same period a year earlier.

·        
Weekly ethanol production of 1.003 million barrels was unchanged from the previous week and stocks fell 391,000 barrels to 25.136 million barrels, lowest since the week ending February 24^th.
Early
September 2022 to date ethanol production is running 3.7% below the same period year ago.

 

Export
developments.

• None
  reported

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans are lower on follow through selling and speculation Argentina producers will soon sell soybeans to crushers after the rollout of the “soybean dollar.”

·        
Argentina and many other countries will be on holiday through Monday.

·        
Argentina’s 300 peso to the USD FX rate incentive, effective April 8 through May 31, may attract 5-10 million tons of sales, per industry estimates.

·        
Malaysia June palm futures were down 45 ringgit to 3,823 and June cash was lower by $8.50 at $941.00/ton.

·        
China May soybean futures were down 0.6%, meal down 1.0%, SBO up slightly and palm oil futures down slightly.

·        
Nearby Rotterdam vegetable oils were down 40 euros from this time yesterday morning and meal 1-6 euros lower.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 39 points this morning and meal $4.90 short ton higher.

 

Due
out 4/10

 

Export
Developments

• No
  24-H USDA sales

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are mixed on light buying for higher protein wheat (weather). Chicago is lower on fund selling.

·        
The US Drought Monitor showed little change from the previous week in conditions, leading some to think US winter wheat conditions will remain 28 percent G/E when updated on Monday.

·        
Paris May wheat was down 1.00 euro earlier or 0.4% at 253.00 per ton.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Japan in its weekly import tender bought 78,732 tons of food wheat later this week from the US, Canada and Australia.

·        
Japan’s AgMin seeks 60,000 tons of feed wheat and 20,000 tons of feed barley on April 12 for arrival in Japan by September 28.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported

 

 

USDA
export sales

Soybean
sales were disappointing with only 155,300 tons posted for old crop and a net reduction of 48,200 tons for new-crop, which is unusual. Old crop soybean sales included China (162,000 of which one cargo switched) and Germany (69,100). China cancelled a new-crop
soybean cargo.  Soybean meal sales were within expectations while soybean oil sales of 27,600 tons were above a range of expectations. Shipments of meal were very good at 363,200 tons, a marketing year high. USDA reported 1.247 million tons of corn was sold
for 2022-23, within expectations. China corn sales totaled 586,100 tons and unknown 164,500 tons. Pork sales were large at 53,200 tons, a marketing year high. China took 20,200 tons of pork and Mexico 14,300 tons. All-wheat sales of 193,600 tons for old crop
were ok but new-crop showed net reductions of 10,200 tons. For 2022-23, China switched from unknown destinations and there was a cargo also switched from unknown by Egypt. No sorghum sales were reported.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Export
Sales Highlights

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period March 24-30, 2023.

Wheat: 
Net sales of 193,600 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (69,300 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Taiwan (56,300
MT), Egypt (50,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (13,900 MT), and Guatemala (6,000 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (25,000 MT). Net sales reductions of 10,200 MT for 2023/2024 resulting in increases for Peru (11,000
MT), Honduras (8,000 MT), and Ecuador (800 MT), were more than offset by reductions for unknown destinations (30,000 MT). Exports of 197,700 MT were down 36 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were
primarily to China (68,300 MT), the Philippines (64,900 MT), Mexico (27,100 MT), the Dominican Republic (18,300 MT), and Colombia (18,200 MT).

Export
Adjustments:  Accumulated
exports of white wheat to unknown destinations were adjusted down 68,250 MT for week ending March 23rd. The correct destination for this shipment is China.

Corn: 
Net sales of 1,246,600 MT for 2022/2023 were up 20 percent from the previous week, but down 26 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (586,100 MT), unknown destinations (164,500 MT), Mexico (143,600 MT, including decreases of
2,500 MT), Japan (117,000 MT, including 51,200 MT switched from unknown destinations, decreases of 4,300 MT, and 11,000 MT – late), and South Korea (77,800 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions primarily for
Hong Kong (41,900 MT), Panama (26,000 MT), and Canada (18,200 MT). Total net sales of 26,200 MT for 2023/2024 were for Japan. Exports of 1,136,800 MT were up 70 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were
primarily to Mexico (461,900 MT), South Korea (197,300 MT), Japan (130,200 MT, including 10,400 MT – late), Saudi Arabia (73,500 MT), and Guatemala (56,400 MT).

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2022/2023, decreases of 90,000 MT were reported for South Korea (50,000 MT) and Egypt (40,000 MT). The current outstanding balance of 50,000 MT, all South Korea.

Export
Adjustments:  Accumulated
exports of corn to Venezuela were adjusted down 1,000 MT for week ending March 2nd. This shipment was reported in error.

Late
Reporting: 
For 2022/2023, net sales totaling 11,000 MT of corn were reported late for Japan. Exports of 10,441 MT were late to Japan.

Barley: 
No net sales or exports were reported for the week.

Sorghum: 
No net sales were reported for the week. Exports of 600 MT were down noticeably from the previous and down 99 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destination was to Mexico.

Rice: 
Net sales of 102,400 MT for 2022/2023 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Iraq (80,000 MT), Haiti (7,300 MT), Mexico (5,200 MT), Guatemala (4,600 MT), and Canada (2,300 MT), were offset by reductions
for Colombia (100 MT). Exports of 57,000 MT were up 32 percent from the previous week, but down 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Colombia (22,000 MT), Haiti (15,300 MT), Japan (13,000 MT), Mexico (2,400 MT), and Canada
(2,100 MT).

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 155,300 MT for 2022/2023 were down 55 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (162,000 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,400 MT), Germany
(69,100 MT), Indonesia (65,700 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,200 MT), Egypt (27,000 MT, including decreases of 3,000 MT), and South Korea (22,800 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and
decreases of 2,200 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (183,200 MT). Net sales reductions of 48,300 MT for 2023/2024 resulting in increases primarily for Japan (17,600 MT), were more than offset by reductions for China (66,000
MT). Exports of 558,700 MT were down 46 percent from the previous week and 26 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (298,900 MT), Indonesia (70,800 MT), Germany (69,100 MT), Mexico (33,800 MT), and Japan (27,200 MT). 

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2022/2023, the current outstanding balance of 300 MT, all South Korea.

Export
for Own Account:  For
2022/2023, new exports for own account totaling 100 MT were to Taiwan. Decreases of 100 MT were to Canada. The current exports for own account outstanding balance of 1,600 MT are for Canada (1,400 MT) and Taiwan (200 MT).

Export
Adjustments:  Accumulated
exports of soybeans to the Netherlands were adjusted down 69,128 MT for week ending March 23rd. The correct destination for this shipment is Germany.

Soybean
Cake and Meal: 
Net sales of 245,500 MT for 2022/2023 were down 35 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Morocco (55,200 MT, including 23,000 MT switched from Spain), Colombia (47,100 MT, including decreases of
49,200 MT), Ecuador (40,100 MT, including decreases of 20,000 MT), Guatemala (20,900 MT, including 7,200 MT switched from Panama), and Honduras (20,200 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Spain (36,000 MT), Panama (5,900 MT), and Nicaragua (2,700
MT). Total net sales of 32,000 MT for 2023/2024 were for Ecuador. Exports of 363,200 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 51 percent from the previous week and 30 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Colombia (132,500 MT),
the Philippines (33,200 MT), Mexico (26,300 MT), Morocco (25,200 MT), and Ecuador (24,100 MT).

Soybean
Oil: 
Net sales of 27,600 MT for 2022/2023–a marketing-year high–were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for unknown destinations (20,000 MT), Jamaica (7,000 MT), and Canada (400 MT). Exports of 900
MT were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were to Canada (500 MT) and Mexico (400 MT).

Cotton: 
Net sales of 160,500 RB for 2022/2023 were down 43 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (64,400 RB), Vietnam (52,500 RB, including 1,700 RB switched from South Korea and decreases of 100
RB), Turkey (16,200 RB, including decreases of 200 RB), India (6,200 RB), and Peru (5,000 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), were offset by reductions primarily for Mexico (2,700 RB). Net sales of 15,900 RB for 2023/2024 were reported for Pakistan (10,000
RB), Mexico (3,600 RB), South Korea (1,800 RB), Turkey (400 RB), and Guatemala (100 RB). Exports of 250,100 RB were down 27 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (61,600 RB),
China (45,100 RB), Turkey (40,800 RB), Pakistan (30,300 RB), and Bangladesh (14,300 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 9,100 RB for 2022/2023 were down 10 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China
(4,400 RB), India (2,600 RB, including 1,200 RB switched from Italy and decreases of 100 RB), Pakistan (1,600 RB), Bangladesh (900 RB), and Vietnam (900 RB), were offset by reductions for Italy (2,100 RB). Total net sales of 800 RB for 2023/2024 were for Italy.
Exports of 1,500 RB were down 80 percent from the previous week and 69 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were to China (1,300 RB), Honduras (100 RB), and Malaysia (100 RB).

Optional
Origin Sales:  For
2022/2023, options were exercised to export 500 RB to Malaysia from the United States. The current outstanding balance of 6,800 RB, all Malaysia.

Export
for Own Account:  For
2022/2023, new exports for own account totaling 2,800 RB were to China. Exports for own account totaling 6,000 RB primarily to China (3,500 RB) and Turkey (2,400 RB) were applied to new or outstanding sales. The current exports for own account outstanding
balance of 122,100 RB are for China (104,700 RB), Vietnam (7,300 RB), Pakistan (5,000 RB), South Korea (2,400 RB), India (1,500 RB), and Turkey (1,200 RB).

Hides
and Skins: 
Net sales of 284,200 pieces for 2023 were down 34 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (180,900 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 13,600 pieces), Mexico (37,200 whole cattle hides,
including decreases of 2,300 pieces), South Korea (20,000 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 1,900 pieces), Turkey (12,200 whole cattle hides), and Brazil (6,300 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 200 pieces), were offset by reductions for
Thailand (800 pieces) and Indonesia (500 pieces). Total net sales of 2,200 calf skins were for China. In addition, net sales of 12,200 kip skins were reported for China (10,700 kip skins) and Canada (1,500 kip skins). Exports of 444,800 pieces were up 2 percent
from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (271,100 pieces), Mexico (62,300 pieces), South Korea (45,700 pieces), Indonesia (17,000 pieces), and Italy (11,800 pieces). Exports of 5,600
calf skins were to Italy.

Net
sales of 131,200 wet blues for 2023 were up 27 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Italy (66,100 unsplit, including decreases of 100 unsplit), China (21,100 unsplit), Hong Kong (17,000 unsplit),
Vietnam (15,000 unsplit), and Thailand (11,900 unsplit), were offset by reductions for Brazil (100 grain splits). Exports of 130,000 wet blues were up 45 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily
to Italy (35,500 unsplit), Vietnam (29,400 unsplit and 4,000 grain splits), China (26,500 unsplit), Thailand (13,200 unsplit), and Taiwan (8,000 unsplit). Net sales reductions of 1,400 splits resulting in increases for Taiwan (2,400 pounds), were more than
offset by reductions for Vietnam (3,800 pounds). Exports of 43,400 pounds were to Taiwan.

Beef: 
Net sales of 13,500 MT for 2023 were up 20 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea (4,900 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Japan (2,600 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Canada
(1,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (1,100 MT), and Taiwan (700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). Total net sales of 100 MT for 2024 were for Canada. Exports of 17,300 MT were up 5 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior
4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Japan (5,000 MT), South Korea (4,500 MT), China (2,200 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), and Taiwan (1,300 MT).

Pork: 
Net sales of 53,200 MT for 2023–a marketing-year high–were up 75 percent from the previous week and 69 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for China (20,200 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Mexico (14,300 MT, including decreases
of 300 MT), Japan (3,800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (3,200 MT, including decreases of 1,100 MT), and Colombia (2,500 MT, including decreases of 200 MT). Total net sales of 700 MT for 2024 were for South Korea. Exports of 31,500 MT were
down 3 percent from the previous week, but up 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (12,500 MT), China (4,900 MT), Japan (4,600 MT), South Korea (2,900 MT), and Canada (1,700 MT).

 

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  3/30/2023

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	25.6	615.3	1,451.3	29.6	4,308.4	6,096.0	-30.0	109.6
SRW	35.4	487.9	459.0	32.9	2,336.8	2,314.3	19.8	411.8
HRS	54.3	888.7	934.7	31.3	4,596.7	4,357.4	0.0	94.9
WHITE	78.4	664.1	475.9	103.9	3,874.7	2,864.1	0.0	43.2
DURUM	0.0	77.1	15.5	0.0	291.1	173.9	0.0	36.9
TOTAL	193.6	2,733.1	3,336.4	197.7	15,407.7	15,805.7	-10.2	696.4
BARLEY	0.0	3.3	5.7	0.0	8.2	14.7	0.0	6.0
CORN	1,246.6	16,832.1	20,623.3	1,136.8	20,379.6	33,813.3	26.2	2,000.4
SORGHUM	0.0	680.3	2,672.0	0.6	819.4	4,077.6	0.0	63.0
SOYBEANS	155.3	4,849.9	11,765.0	558.7	45,066.3	44,321.7	-48.3	1,700.9
SOY MEAL	245.5	2,685.9	2,915.5	363.2	6,324.0	6,306.1	32.0	306.0
SOY OIL	27.6	69.5	142.1	0.9	34.1	497.5	0.0	0.6
RICE
L G RGH	11.0	119.9	159.3	23.9	479.1	1,000.9	0.0	0.0
M S RGH	0.0	32.3	3.3	0.0	20.6	10.9	0.0	5.0
L G BRN	0.0	4.7	16.4	0.3	15.5	33.7	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	0.1	35.7	43.9	0.1	9.0	42.5	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	88.1	173.3	69.2	17.8	471.7	592.7	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	3.1	129.2	237.9	14.8	196.1	263.1	0.0	13.0
TOTAL	102.4	495.2	530.0	57.0	1,192.0	1,943.7	0.0	18.0
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	160.5	4,809.0	7,181.2	250.1	6,811.9	7,078.9	15.9	1,388.3
PIMA	9.1	66.4	150.5	1.5	117.3	294.8	0.8	4.7