FI Morning Grain Comments 04/10/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Several
countries are on holiday. News is thin. Soybeans are higher, meal lower and SBO higher perhaps from a rebound in palm oil futures. MPOB confirmed palm oil stocks in Malaysia are getting tighter. Black Sea grain deal concerns are sending grains higher. Look
for a choppy trade today. WTI crude was lower by 35 cents earlier, USD higher by a large 58 points and US equities lower. The Argentina soybean dollar launch should kick in by today, but we don’t look for large volumes to be sold by producers straight away. 
Several US economic releases this week including CPI on Wednesday.

 

Fund
estimates as of April 6

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Monday,
April 10:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• Malaysia’s
  April 1-10 palm oil export data
• Brazil’s
  Unica to release cane crush, sugar production data (tentative)
• US
  planting data for corn, cotton, spring wheat and soybeans, 4pm
• US
  winter wheat condition, 4pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Easter Monday holiday in several countries, including the UK, Australia, France, Germany and Hong Kong

Tuesday,
April 11:

• USDA’s
  World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE), 12pm
• China’s
  agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly supply and demand report

Wednesday,
April 12:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• France
  agriculture ministry’s 2023 planting estimates

Thursday,
April 13:

• China’s
  1st batch of March trade data, including soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat & offal imports
• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Brazil’s
  CONAB publishes production, area and yield data for corn and soybeans
• FranceAgriMer
  monthly grains balance sheet
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

Friday,
April 14:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer’s
  weekly crop condition report
• HOLIDAY:
  India, Thailand

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

Reuters
trade estimates

US
stocks

World
stocks

SA
Production

 

 

 

 

 

CFTC
Commitment of Traders

Good
commercial selling was seen for soybeans and corn for the week ending April 3. Managed money longs were active for soybeans, corn, and KC wheat.

 

 

 

 

 

Fund
estimates as of April 6

 

Reuters
table

SUPPLEMENTAL     
Non-Comm               Indexes                  Comm

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg        Net        Chg

Corn             
 -24,633      6,836    292,074      9,570   -230,461    -38,998

Soybeans          
113,395     26,226    138,037     13,946   -227,885    -51,574

Soyoil            
-33,854     -2,235    104,622      2,277    -69,371      1,583

CBOT
wheat         -78,289       -735     76,167       -274     -4,843     -4,635

KCBT
wheat          -9,422      3,252     44,001       -668    -31,201     -2,645

 

FUTURES
+ OPTS     Managed                 Swaps              Producer

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg        Net        Chg

Corn               
21,547     34,835    227,157     -1,718   -242,880    -39,334

Soybeans          
145,964     46,442     88,873     -1,738   -228,798    -48,733

Soymeal            
95,735       -394     90,024      3,039   -216,716     -4,849

Soyoil            
-10,585      1,875    106,201     -1,297    -94,181      3,609

CBOT
wheat         -87,083      2,790     62,963        213     -3,814     -5,205

KCBT
wheat           7,613      7,376     34,298     -1,488    -33,512     -2,917

MGEX
wheat             694        274      1,255       -121     -5,643     -2,011

                
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-

Total
wheat        -78,776     10,440     98,516     -1,396    -42,969    -10,133

 

Live
cattle         85,001     22,370     45,599      1,989   -144,035    -20,646

Feeder
cattle        7,108        421      1,130       -484     -2,076        452

Lean
hogs          -22,590       -107     45,771       -755    -23,964       -173

 

                     Other            
NonReport                  Open

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg   Interest        Chg

Corn               
31,158    -16,375    -36,980     22,591  1,670,937         99

Soybeans           
17,507     -7,373    -23,546     11,402    911,421     24,603

Soymeal            
11,620        861     19,336      1,341    487,963     21,104

Soyoil                
-37     -2,561     -1,396     -1,626    525,578     19,293

CBOT
wheat          20,969     -3,442      6,964      5,645    449,495      3,344

KCBT
wheat          -5,020     -3,032     -3,378         61    191,019      2,979

MGEX
wheat           3,559      1,101        135        756     67,359      2,561

                
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-

Total
wheat         19,508     -5,373      3,721      6,462    707,873      8,884

 

Live
cattle         26,220      3,914    -12,785     -7,626    418,735     31,643

Feeder
cattle        3,773        208     -9,935       -596     75,379     -3,625

Lean
hogs           -2,532        338      3,315        695    325,095     11,429

 

 

Macros

US
Change In Nonfarm Payrolls Mar: 236K (est 230K, prev 311K)

Unemployment
Rate Mar: 3.5% (est 3.6%, prev 3.6%)

Average
Hourly Earnings Mar M/M: 0.3% (est 0.3%, prev 0.2%)

Average
Hourly Earnings Mar Y/Y: 4.2% (est 4.3%, prev 4.6%)

 

US
Change In Manufacturing Payrolls Mar: -1K (est -4K, prevR -1K)

Change
In Private Payrolls Mar: 189K (est 218K, prevR 266K)

Average
Weekly Hours All Employees Mar: 34.4 (est 34.5, prev 34.5)

Labour
Force Participation Rate Mar: 62.6% (est 62.5%, prev 62.5)

Underemployment
Rate Mar: 6.7% (prev 6.8%)

 

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures turned unchanged to lower before the electronic close despite on Black Sea grain export deal concerns. News is very light.

·        
Funds are getting back into long positions (corn and soybeans) after USDA surprised the trade little more than a week ago with grain stocks, per CFTC COT.

·        
USDA’s report is due out tomorrow. What is interesting is the large range in US corn ending stocks (see above for trade average). Reuters has a 1.242-1.392 billion range.

 

Export
developments.

• None
  reported

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans are higher, meal lower and soybean oil higher. Palm oil futures appreciated overnight from slightly supportive end of March Malaysian palm oil stocks.

·        
Brazil harvested 82 percent of their soybean planted area as of last Thursday, up 6 points from the previous week and compares to 84 percent year ago.

·        
ITS reported Malaysian palm oil shipments for the April 1-10 period at 322,985 tons, down 36 percent from the same period month earlier. AmSpec reported 337,233 tons, down from 474,830 month ago.

·        
Malaysia June palm futures on Friday traded 2 ringgit lower to 3,821. On Monday Malaysia June palm futures were up 36 ringgit to 3,830.

·        
Two day changes below….

·        
Over a two day period China May soybean futures were up 0.5%, meal down 1.9%, SBO down 1.9% and palm oil futures down 2.0%.

·        
Nearby Rotterdam vegetable oils and meal were not quoted.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO 13 points lower this morning and meal about $2.80 lower.

 

 

Export
Developments

• None
  reported

 

Wheat

·        
Not much fresh news since the Sunday email. US weather is improving bias eastern US wheat growing areas.

·        
Rising Black Sea tensions are supporting US wheat futures. The Ukraine export deal is set to expire in May and Turkey is looking to extend it. Meanwhile Russia would like to broker a deal that includes fertilizer exports. Reuters:
“More than 27 million tons of grain and other foodstuffs have been exported from Ukraine aboard 881 outbound vessels since the Black Sea Grain Initiative began in August, official data shows.” Russia over the weekend said they may have to work outside the
grain deal if the West maintains “obstacles.”

·        
The market for Paris May wheat is closed today for holiday. Many EU countries and Argentina will also be on holiday.

·        
Late last week the French AgMin reported the wheat crop 93 percent G/E as of April 3, down one point from the previous week.

·        
FAO food price index for the month of March fell for the 12^th consecutive month to 126.9 points, from 129.7 for February and lowest since July 2021.

·        
Ukraine over the long weekend suspended grain exports to Poland after pushback from protests by Poland producers over the influx of Ukraine grain exports. Ukraine will refrain from exporting wheat, corn, rape seed and sunflower
to Poland. Meanwhile, producers in Romania also staged protests, also citing economic damage from cheaper Ukraine grain imports. About 200 farmers protested outside the European Commission’s local headquarters, according to a Reuters story.

·        
Ukraine spring grain sowings reached 620,500 hectares over the weekend. AgMin: As of April 7 it included 126,700 hectares of spring wheat, 376,600 hectares of barley, 73,100 hectares of peas, 41,300 hectares of oats and 200 hectares
of millet.

·        
Russia is looking at raising their calculation price for the wheat export duty to 17,000 rubles ($212.23) per ton from 15,000 robles per ton. This could slow wheat export shipments for the upcoming crop year.

·        
For the April 12-18 period, Russia will increase its wheat export duty by 3.1% to 5339.4 rubles per ton, using an indicative price of $289.20 per ton.

 

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Japan’s AgMin seeks 60,000 tons of feed wheat and 20,000 tons of feed barley on April 12 for arrival in Japan by September 28.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported