FI Morning Grain Comments 04/11/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

USDA
report day.  The USD is lower by 45 points, WTI crude 45 cents higher and US equities mixed. Soybeans are higher on positioning ahead of the USDA report. Reuters noted not much was initially sold by Argentina producers under the new soybean dollar and that
might be helping CBOT soybean meal. Soybean oil is losing ground to meal. Corn and wheat are on the defensive despite a downgrade in US winter wheat conditions. USDA is expected to make reductions to the US soybean and corn carryout projections later this
morning while wheat may see a modest change. SA soybean and corn production is expected to be lower for Argentina.
Offshore
values were leading SBO higher by about 9 points this morning and meal $3.10 short ton higher.

 

 

Fund
estimates as of April 10

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR APRIL 11, 2023

• Status
  quo conditions for much of the world today
• Dryness
  is still a worry in Spain, Portugal, North Africa and U.S. west-central and southwestern Plains and portions of Canada’s Prairies
  
• Some
  snow and rain will fall in the northwestern and southeastern Canada Prairies, but the heart of the region is not likely to see much dryness relief
• Aggressive
  snowmelt is under way in the upper U.S. Midwest and northeastern Plains as well as southeastern Canada’s Prairies where flooding is expected to evolve over the next few days
• Rain
  and some wet snow will impact these areas Thursday into Saturday morning to aggravate the flood situation
• Lighter
  than usual precipitation will continue over the next ten days in the lower U.S. Midwest where aggressive spring planting is expected especially after a few days of drying evolves
• Argentina
  will receive limited precipitation for a while favoring summer crop maturation and harvesting
• Brazil
  rainfall will be sufficient to raise topsoil moisture for long term Safrinha corn and cotton use
• Sugarcane
  and coffee areas in portions of center south Brazil may need some drier weather later this month
• Weather
  in most of Europe (outside of the southwest), the CIS, China, India, Australia and South Africa is mostly favorable right now with little change likely
• Tropical
  Cyclone 18S will move into northwestern Australia later this week and a disturbance near the Philippines will bring heavy rain to Luzon Island and possibly a part of Samar Island

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Tuesday,
April 11:

• USDA’s
  World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE), 12pm
• China’s
  agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly supply and demand report

Wednesday,
April 12:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• France
  agriculture ministry’s 2023 planting estimates

Thursday,
April 13:

• China’s
  1st batch of March trade data, including soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat & offal imports
• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Brazil’s
  CONAB publishes production, area and yield data for corn and soybeans
• FranceAgriMer
  monthly grains balance sheet
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

Friday,
April 14:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer’s
  weekly crop condition report
• HOLIDAY:
  India, Thailand

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

Reuters
S&D trade estimates

US
stocks

 

World
stocks

 

SA
Production

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range

Wheat                 
335,444                 versus   150000-500000  range

Corn                     
805,167                 versus   600000-1300000                range

Soybeans           
669,566                 versus   375000-800000  range

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures are on the defensive but light spreading against wheat are keeping some contracts afloat. US corn plantings are expected to rapidly advance this week with warmer and drier conditions for the Corn Belt.

·        
Today is day 2 of the Goldman Roll.

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of April 06, 2023, were 805,167 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 1,098,461 tons previous week and compares to 1,474,547 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 215,688
tons, China for 208,848 tons, and Japan for 161,734 tons.

 

Export
developments.

• Taiwan’s
  MFIG seeks up to 65,000 tons of corn on Wednesday, optional origin, for May 26-June 14 shipment, later if sourced from the US PNW and/or South Africa.
  

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans are
seeing support from higher soybean meal after Argentina producers remained reserved sellers of soybeans post rollout of the Argentina soybean dollar. Soybean oil is near unchanged from product spreading despite higher overnight Malaysian palm oil futures.
USDA
later may trim the US ending stocks for corn and soybeans and cut Argentina soybean production by a good amount (at least 4 million tons). A decline in world soybean and corn stocks is expected. Wheat may see a modest decrease for US stocks and monitor India
where adverse weather last month damaged the crop.

·        
APK estimated Ukraine sunflower oil exports for 2023-24 to rise by 11 percent to around 5 million tons, near what the local sunflower oil producers association projected.

·        
Cargo surveyor SGS reported April 1-10 palm oil shipments at 408,663 tons, a 16.2 percent decline from the same period month earlier.

·        
Malaysia June palm futures were up 51 ringgit to 3,888 and June cash was lower by $4.00 at
$932.50/ton.

·        
China May soybean futures were down 0.9%, meal down 0.1%, SBO unchanged and palm oil futures up 1.7%.

·        
Nearby Rotterdam vegetable oils were mixed this time yesterday morning and meal 0.50-7.50 euros higher.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 9 points this morning and meal $3.10 short ton higher.

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of April 06, 2023, were 669,566 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 503,900 tons previous week and compares to 821,064 tons year ago. Major countries included China for 289,097
tons, Germany for 150,073 tons, and Mexico for 74,510 tons.

 

Export
Developments

• South
  Korea’s NOFI group passed on 60,000 tons of soybean meal. Lowest offer was $558.74 a ton for arrival in South Korea around Aug. 1.

 

Wheat

·        
Nearby US wheat futures
are lower despite a one-point decline in the combined good and excellent US winter wheat ratings. US wheat crop ratings can rebound from a good rain event, but the near-term weather forecast is calling for net drying for the western areas over the next week.
The eastern wheat areas will see some rain. CO will see some rain later this week (day 3-4).

·        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of April 06, 2023, were 335,444 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 168,543 tons previous week and compares to 419,185 tons year ago. Major countries included Japan for 102,408
tons, Thailand for 58,119 tons, and Mexico for 53,391 tons.

·        
Ukraine shipped 3.33 million tons of grains through the Romanian Black Sea port of Constanta in the first quarter. 2022 shipments through the port were 8.6 million tons.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Jordan bought 60,000 tons of wheat today at an estimated $303.30 per ton c&f.

·        
Jordan is expected to float another import tender for wheat soon for October-FH November shipment.

·        
Japan’s AgMin seeks 60,000 tons of feed wheat and 20,000 tons of feed barley on April 12 for arrival in Japan by September 28.

·        
Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of durum wheat on Wednesday, for May-June shipment.

·        
Taiwan Flour Millers Association seeks 52,850 tons of million wheat from the US on April 13 for May 31-June 14 shipment via PNW.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on April 12 for October through November 15 shipment.

·        
Japan seeks 78,548 tons of food wheat from the US and Canada later this week for June shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported