FI Morning Grain Comments 04/13/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

USD
was 4 points lower (reversal) and WTI up 57 cents as of 7:41 am CT.  US stocks are on the defensive in part to vaccine rollout concerns.  US and SA weather forecast is mostly unchanged.  Slower than expected start to the US corn planting season is not expected
to have that much impact on prices but drier weather ahead for the western Corn Belt and colder than normal temperatures will be talked about this week.  US corn seedings advanced nicely across the Delta and lower Midwest last week.  The lower Midwest will
see additional rain this week, delaying fieldwork activity.  US winter wheat ratings came in at expectations.  SK bought a cargo oof optional origin corn. Jordan passed on barley and SK bought feed wheat.  Japan is back in for food wheat.  China March soybean
arrivals were up 82 percent form a year ago. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

 

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
April 13:

• China
  customs to publish trade data, including imports of soy, edible oils, meat and rubber
• France’s
  agriculture ministry updates on 2021 crop plantings
• Malaysian
  Cocoa Board releases 1Q 2021 cocoa grinding numbers
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

Wednesday,
April 14:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• Unica’s
  data on cane crush and sugar production in Brazil’s center-south region (tentative)
• FranceAgriMer
  monthly grains report
• European
  Cocoa Association’s quarterly grind data (tentative)
• HOLIDAY:
  India, Bangladesh, Thailand

Thursday,
April 15:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Malaysia’s
  April 1-15 palm oil export data
• The
  U.S. National Confectionery Association releases first quarter cocoa grinding data for North America
• USDA
  updates monthly North American sugar and sweeteners outlook
• White
  sugar May contract expires
• New
  Zealand food prices
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

Friday,
April 16:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Cocoa
  Association of Asia releases 1Q 2021 cocoa grinding data
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                                    

Wheat                 
458,432                 versus   300000-550000  range

Corn                     
1,584,761             versus   1200000-2100000             range

Soybeans           
327,799                 versus   100000-400000  range

 

Macro

 

Corn

• CBOT
  corn
  was higher led by the back months in a light trade.  US corn seeding progress came in less than expected and that is supporting back month corn futures.  Ongoing concerns over the Brazil corn crop may prompt major importers to book US corn. 
  
• Funds
  on Monday sold an estimated net 11,000 corn contracts.
• Rains
  will occur across Brazil’s northern Mato Grosso this week. Central Parana and western RGDS will see light rain. 
  
• Today
  is day four of the “Goldman Roll.”

 

Export
developments.

• South
  Korea’s FLC bought 65,000 tons of optional origin corn at $296.79/ton c&f for arrival in SK in July. 
  

 

 

Soybeans

• CBOT
  soybeans and soybean oil are higher led by strength in palm oil, technical buying and heavy March China soybean arrivals. 
  News
  was light overnight. Offshore values are leading soybean oil higher and meal lower. Malaysian palm oil rebounded on thoughts end users will start to stockpile after the recent setback in prices.  June palm oil settled 76 higher and cash was up $12.50 to $952.50. 
  
• At
  7:25 am CT, 500 BOK/BON traded from +190 down to +175. 
• China
  soybean imports for the month of March came in at a large 7.77 million tons, up 82 percent form a year ago, in part to slow January and February arrivals because of the delay in the Brazilian soybean harvest.  5 million tons of U.S. soybeans were loaded in
  January and some of that arrived in March, Reuters noted.  Q1 China soybean imports stand at 21.2 million tons, 19 percent higher than a year ago.  China also imported 1.02 million tons of meat during March, up 11.4 percent from a year ago, and highest since
  January 2020.  October through December China soybean imports were 25.8 million tons, up from 23.93 million a year earlier.  China soybean imports are on track to 100-102 million tons for 2020-21. 
  
• Offshore
  values were leading CBOT SBO 142 points higher and meal $3.30 short ton lower. 
  
• Rotterdam
  vegetable oil values were unchanged to up 2 euros this time previous session and Rotterdam meal mostly higher. 
  
• China
  cash crush margins on our analysis were 158 (178 previous) vs. 179 cents late last week and compares to 197 cents year earlier. 
  
• China:
  

• Malaysian
  palm oil: (uses settle price).
  

• Funds
  on Monday sold an estimated net 12,000 soybean contracts, bought 1,000 soybean meal and sold an estimated 7,000 soybean oil.
  

 

Export
Developments

• USDA
  seeks 35,000 tons of soybean meal for the Food for Progress export program on April 14, of which 11,000 tons for Ivory Coast and 24,000 tons for Ghana. 
  
• Egypt’s
  GASC seeks 30,000 tons of soyoil and 10,000 tons of sunflower oil on April 15 for arrival June 1-20.  Payment is for at sight and 180-day letter of credit. 
  

 

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat was mostly higher as adverse US weather is seen slowing development of winter wheat and delaying spring wheat seedings.  However, US spring wheat seedings reported by USDA at 11 percent complete as of Sunday were better than expected.
  
• September Paris wheat was
  up 1.25 euros to 200.00 euros. 
• France’s soft wheat spring
  crop area as of April 1 was estimated by the AgMin at 4.9 million hectares, up 15% from 2020 and in line with the five-year average. Rapeseed plantings were estimated at 990,000 hectares, down 11% from 2020, and 27% below the five-year average.
• Black Sea region crop areas
  of Belarus, Ukraine, southwest Central Region, and southwest North Caucasus should see rain this week. 
  

 

Export Developments.

• Japan seeks 90,169 tons
  of food wheat this week from US and Canada. 
• South Korea’s MFG bought
  66,000 tons of feed wheat at $269.30/ton c&f for arrival around October 25. 
  

• Jordan passed on 120,000
  tons of animal feed barley.  

• Algeria’s OAIC seeks 50,000
  tons of durum wheat on Wednesday, April 14, valid until Thursday, April 15, for shipment between May 1-15 and May 15-31.
• Japan in its weekly SGS import tender seeks 80,000 tons of feed
  wheat and 100,000 tons of barley for arrival by September 30. 

• Ethiopia seeks 30,000 tons of wheat on April 16. 
  
• Ethiopia seeks 400,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat, on
  April 20, valid for 30 days.  In January Ethiopia cancelled 600,000 tons of wheat from a November import tender because of contractual disagreements. 
  

 

Rice/Other

·        
Mauritius seeks 4,000 tons of optional origin long grain white rice on April 16 for delivery between June 1 and July 31.

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of rice on April 18. 

·        
Syria seeks 39,400 tons of white rice on April 19.  Origin and type might be White Chinese rice or Egyptian short grain rice.

·        
Ethiopia seeks 170,000 tons of parboiled rice on April 20.