FI Morning Grain Comments 04/16/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Higher
trade for the end of the week in most CBOT agricultural contracts (meal lower). Corn is on track to the end the week three consecutive weeks higher and Chicago wheat two consecutive weeks higher.  Soybean oil is near a three week high while meal is near its
lower end of a short-term trading range and soybeans middle of a medium-term trading range. 

 

 

 

Weather

 

Next
7 days

 

6-10
temps

 

World
Weather Inc. 

Tropical
Storm Surigae will continue to intensify southeast of Philippines this weekend and will come dangerously close to the islands early to mid-week next week. The system will become a strong typhoon and could disrupt shipping and impact some coastal areas in a
negative manner.  In the meantime, more rain is coming for Argentina next week, Brazil will have three waves of scattered showers before monsoonal moisture winds down for the season. In the U.S. cool weather will dominate for a while and the southwestern Plains
will miss most of the coming week of rain as will areas from Iowa to SW Canada’s Prairies.

Source:
World Weather Inc. & FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
April 16:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Cocoa
  Association of Asia releases 1Q 2021 cocoa grinding data
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Sunday,
April 18:

• China
  customs to publish trade data, including imports of corn, wheat, sugar and pork
• Boao
  Forum in Hainan, China, day 1

Monday,
April 19:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  crop plantings – corn, wheat, cotton, 4pm
• Boao
  Forum in Hainan, China, day 2
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals

Tuesday,
April 20:

• China
  customs to release trade data, including country breakdowns for commodities such as soybeans
• China
  farm ministry’s CASDE outlook conference, day 1
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• Boao
  Forum in Hainan, China, day 3
• Malaysia’s
  April 1-20 palm oil export data from SGS
• Platts
  Agriculture Week conference, day 1
• Brazil’s
  Conab releases cane, sugar and ethanol production data (tentative)
• AB
  Sugar interim results

Wednesday,
April 21:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• China
  farm ministry’s CASDE outlook conference, day 2
• Platts
  Agriculture Week conference, day 2
• Boao
  Forum in Hainan, China, day 4
• USDA
  Milk Production, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Brazil, India

Thursday,
April 22:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Platts
  Agriculture Week conference, day 3
• USDA
  red meat production
• EARNINGS:
  Suedzucker, Barry Callebaut

Friday,
April 23:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• U.S.
  Cattle on Feed, Poultry Slaughter 3pm
• U.S.
  cold storage – pork, beef, poultry

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macro

US
Housing Starts Mar: 1739K (exp 1613K; prev 1421K)

–        
Housing Starts (M/M) Mar: 19.4% (exp 12.5%; prev -10.3%)

–        
Building Permits Mar: 1766K (exp 1750K; R prev 1720K)

–        
Building Permits (M/M) Mar: 2.7% (exp 1.7%; R prev -8.8%)

Canadian
International Securities Transactions (CAD) Feb: 8.52B (prev 1.27B)

Canadian
Wholesale Trade Sales (M/M) Feb: -0.7% (exp -0.4%; prev 4.0)

 

 

Corn

• CBOT
  corn
  is higher this morning from follow through buying amid weather concerns.  Snow is projected to track across the far WCB this weekend, delaying fieldwork activity.  CBOT nearby corn is on track to the end the week three consecutive weeks higher.  South Korea
  bought a cargo of US corn. 
• Yesterday
  Argentina’s BA Grains Exchange increased their Argentina corn production estimate by 1 million tons to 46 million.  
• Funds
  on Thursday sold an estimated net 2,000 corn contracts.

 

 

Export
developments.

• South
  Korea’s KOCOPIA bought 55,000 tons of US corn at $293.79/ton c&f for March 20-April 30 loading for arrival around July 20. 
  

 

Soybeans

• CBOT
  soybeans
  are higher with good China crush margins driving soybean arrivals to record levels for the March through May period.  China’s Q1 pork production was +32%. Offshore products are leading the CBOT meal and soybean oil markets higher. Malaysian palm climbed about
  3 percent overnight. NOPA March US crush was slightly bearish for soybeans and a little friendly for the products, but traders are looking ahead to the summer months were some end users may have a tough time sourcing US soybeans.  
  
• There
  were no changes to CBOT soybean complex receipts. 
• China’s
  first-quarter pork production rose 31.9% from a year earlier to 13.69 million tons.  China’s pig herd increased to 415.95 million head at the end of March, a 29.5% rise on the year, and up from 406.5 million at the end of December, via National Bureau of Statistics. 
  (Reuters).  Pork prices via Reuters fell more than 40% since the start of the year.
• Indonesia
  Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) reported Indonesia exported 1.99 million tons of palm oil during February, down from 2.54 million tons year ago.  Indonesia produced 3.38 million tons of palm oil and kernel oils in February, down from a month earlier. Stocks were
  4.04 million tons. (Reuters)
• Funds
  on Thursday bought an estimated net 2,000 soybean contracts, bought 2,000 soybean meal and bought an estimated 4,000 soybean oil.
  
• Offshore
  values were leading CBOT SBO 13 points higher (30 higher for the week) and meal $4.10 short ton higher ($5.40 higher for the week). 
  
• Rotterdam
  vegetable oil values were 10-20 eros higher from this time previous session and Rotterdam meal 3-11 euros higher. 
  
• China
  cash crush margins on our analysis were 175 (179 previous) vs. 179 cents late last week and compares to 197 cents year earlier. 
  
• China:
  

• Malaysian
  palm oil: (uses settle price).
  

 

 

Export
Developments

• None
  reported

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat is higher form ongoing weather concerns and light technical buying ahead of the weekend.  News was fairly light. Chicago wheat is on track to end two consecutive weeks higher.  Indonesia bought around 120,000 tons of Black Sea wheat this week and the
  Philippines passed on 380,000 tons of wheat.
• As
  of April 12, French soft wheat crop conditions fell one point for the combined good and excellent categories to 86 percent.  French winter barley was down 2 and spring barley down 4.  Our US crop progress estimates below. 
  
• Funds
  on Thursday bought an estimated net 4,000 CBOT SRW wheat contracts.
• There
  were 30 CBOT Chicago wheat receipts canceled out of Chicago and Maumee, OH. 
  
• September
  Paris wheat was up 2.00 euros at 208.50 euros. 

 

Export
Developments.

• The
  Philippines passed on 240,000 tons of wheat and 140,000 tons of animal feed barley for June through September shipment. 
  
• Indonesia
  bought around 120,000 tons of Black Sea wheat this week for June shipment. 
  
• Japan
  bought a small amount (380 tons) of feed wheat this week under its SBS import system. 
  

• Results
  awaited: Ethiopia seeks 30,000 tons of wheat on April 16. 
• Ethiopia
  seeks 400,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat, on April 20, valid for 30 days.  In January Ethiopia cancelled 600,000 tons of wheat from a November import tender because of contractual disagreements. 
  

• Jordan
  seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on April 21. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
Results awaited: Mauritius
seeks 4,000 tons of optional origin long grain white rice on April 16 for delivery between June 1 and July 31.

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of rice on April 18. 

·        
Syria seeks 39,400 tons of white rice on April 19.  Origin and type might be White Chinese rice or Egyptian short grain rice.

·        
Ethiopia seeks 170,000 tons of parboiled rice on April 20.