FI Morning Grain Comments 04/19/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning. 

 

USDA
reported 123,650 tons of soybeans sold to unknown for the 2021-22 marketing year.

 

We
are seeing some risk off trading this morning. WTI crude oil was off about $2.95 and USD 16 points higher at the time this was written. The soybean complex and corn were lower. Wheat turned lower despite USDA reporting a very low 30 percent combined good and
excellent winter wheat rating, lowest since 1996. Comparable years for such a poor rating at this time of year are 1989 and 2018. US summer plantings were reported slightly below trade expectations. MN wheat is lower, but losses are limited. A large snowpack
across southeastern Canada and the upper US Great Plains is preventing spring wheat plantings and other summer grain fieldwork preparations. Other US summer grain areas saw either rain and/or cold weather last week delaying plantings. Europe is back from holiday.
Malaysia is on holiday. Japan seeks 27,320 tons of food wheat. Jordan cancelled their feed barley import tender. On Wednesday they are in for wheat.

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR APRIL 19, 2022

• No
  big changes were noted overnight for any key crop area in the world
• The
  west-central U.S. high Plains region will not likely get much rain for a while
• Southwestern
  U.S. Plains will be closely monitored for “some” rain development in the next couple of weeks – this includes West Texas cotton areas as well as southwestern wheat areas
• U.S.
  Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin areas will get periodic rainfall over the next ten days maintaining moisture abundance and limiting field progress, although some planting is expected
• U.S.
  northern Plains and eastern Canada’s Prairies may experience a little too much moisture for a while during the balance of this month
  
• significant
  snow is already on the ground from North Dakota to Manitoba, Canada 
• two
  more storms are expected this week; the first of which will impact Canada more than the northern U.S. Plains today through Wednesday with multiple includes of snow except in the drought areas of the southwest
• Another
  storm system of size will produce widespread snow and rain Friday into Sunday from eastern Montana and western North Dakota to Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan where 8-16 inches of snow may result  
  
• flood
  potentials are rising for Manitoba and North Dakota because of recent snowfall
• Dryness
  will remain a concern in Mato Grosso, Brazil as time moves along during the next few weeks
  
• topsoil
  moisture is already rated “short” while subsoil moisture is “marginally adequate” 
  
• drying
  over the next two weeks will deplete topsoil moisture and begin stressing Safrinha corn and cotton
  
• potential
  yields could decrease if there is no timely rain in May
• Argentina
  will see a favorable mix of weather
• Rain
  will fall frequently in southern Europe and southern China while seasonably dry conditions occur in northern China 
• India’s
  harvest weather will advance favorably
• Coffee,
  citrus and sugarcane areas in the world are expected to stay in mostly good shape

Source:
World Weather Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
April 19:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• HOLIDAY:
  Malaysia

Wednesday,
April 20:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• China’s
  third batch of March trade data, including soy, corn and pork imports by country
• China
  Agricultural Outlook Conference, Beijing
• USDA
  monthly milk production, 3pm
• Malaysia’s
  April 1-20 palm oil export data

Thursday,
April 21:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• International
  Grains Council monthly report
• USDA
  red meat production, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Brazil

Friday,
April 22:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• First
  quarter cocoa grinding data from Cocoa Association of Asia
• Brazil’s
  Unica may release cane crush and sugar output data (tentative)
• U.S.
  cattle on feed; cold storage data for pork, beef and poultry, 3pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range

Wheat                 
432,253                 versus   300000-500000  range    within

Corn                     
1,139,206             versus   1050000-1800000             range    within

Soybeans           
972,509                 versus   500000-1150000                range    within

 

Macros

US
Housing Starts Mar: 1793K (est 1740K; prev 1769K)

US
Housing Starts (M/M) Mar: 0.3% (est 1.6%; prev 6.8%)

US
Building Permits Mar: 1873K (est 1820K; prev 1859K; prevR 1865K)

US
Building Permits (M/M) Mar: 0.4% (est -2.4%; prev -1.9%; prevR -1.6%)

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn turned lower in a risk off session as traders take in little news and sharply lower energy prices. 

·        
Look for July corn to possibly test 8.00 today.

·        
Yesterday USDA reported a slower than expected US corn planting progress, but we see fieldwork activity picking up by the end of the workweek with warmer temperatures forecast for the Midwest.

·        
Ongoing Black Sea shipping concerns should limit losses.

·        
The Baltic Dry index rose 7 percent to 2,115 points.

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of April 14, 2022, were 1,139,206 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 1,474,156 tons previous week and compares to 1,559,267 tons year ago. Major countries included China for 402,803
tons, Mexico for 247,082 tons, and Japan for 152,090 tons.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

 

Soybeans

·        
The soybean complex is lower led by soybean oil. WTI was down nearly $3.00 as of 7:55 am CT.  It appears we are seeing some risk off trading across the commodity space. News was light.
Europe
is back from holiday. Malaysia is on holiday. The latest 24-hour sales reported today, and Friday are leading some to think USDA will increase their 2021-22 US export forecast next month.

·        
Offshore values are leading soybean oil 7 points lower and meal $3.50 lower.

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of April 14, 2022, were 972,509 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 818,689 tons previous week and compares to 222,065 tons year ago. Major countries included China for 301,008
tons, Egypt for 160,015 tons, and Indonesia for 93,196 tons.

 

Export
Developments

·       
USDA reported 123,650 tons of soybeans sold to unknown for the 2021-22 marketing year.

·        
China looks for sell another 500,000 tons of soybeans during the April 18-23 workweek.

 

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat is
mostly lower led by Chicago from fund selling. Nothing has materially changed. US winter wheat ratings were surprisingly lower from the previous week. Back month MN wheat was higher.

·        
A large snowpack across southeastern Canada and the upper US Great Plains is preventing spring wheat plantings and other summer grain fieldwork preparations. Temperature will warm up as the workweek goes on.

·        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of April 14, 2022, were 432,253 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 419,185 tons previous week and compares to 629,065 tons year ago. Major countries included Taiwan for 57,075
tons, Mexico for 52,591 tons, and El Salvador for 49,623 tons.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Jordan passed on 120,000 tons of feed barley.

·        
Japan seeks 27,320 tons of wheat on Thursday.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat on April 20.

·        
Japan seeks 70,000 tons of feed wheat and 40,000 tons of feed barley on April 20 for arrival by September 29.

·        
Taiwan seeks 47,120 tons of US wheat on April 21 for June 2 through June 21 if shipped off the PNW.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported