FI Morning Grain Comments 04/20/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning. 

 

Follow
through selling is seen for the US soybean complex and grains from the resumption in Black Sea grain export inspections.
China ag futures were lower overnight. WTI crude oil was down more than $1.40, USD lower, and US equities lower. Parts of the dry areas of US HRW wheat country will see rain over the next five days.

 

Fund
estimates as of April 19

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR APRIL 20, 2023

• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat areas will have three opportunities for rain during the next ten days
• Southwestern
  areas are least likely to get meaningful rain
• West
  Texas will continue to miss out on much of the precipitation expected in the Plains, but a few showers will be possible
• U.S.
  Delta and southeastern states will be wet or become that way in the next seven days
• U.S.
  Midwest temperatures will be cool and precipitation periodic limiting fieldwork
• Snowstorm
  in Canada’s eastern Prairies will wind down today, but some of the snow is expected in northern and eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota
• New
  storm in the upper U.S. Midwest tonight and Friday will induce more heavy rain, significant runoff and additional flooding
• South
  America weather appears to be mostly good, especially if rain falls in Mato Grosso as advertised
• Southwestern
  Europe and North Africa will remain drier than usual
• China’s
  southern Rapeseed areas will continue very wet
• Southern
  Australia is advertised wetter next week as a frontal system moves from west to east; the moisture will be good for future wheat, barley and canola planting
• South
  Africa will continue dry biased
• India
  will remain cooler biased with limited rain in this first week of the outlook; showers may increase in the last days of April
• Mali
  to Burkina Faso to remain drier biased for another five to six days and then some showers are possible
• Southeast
  Asia rainfall will be increasing in Indonesia and Malaysia and possibly in a part of the mainland production areas

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Thursday,
April 20:

• China’s
  3rd batch of March trade data, including country breakdowns for commodities
• Malaysia’s
  April 1-20 palm oil export data
• Cocoa
  Association of Asia grinding data for first quarter
• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• USDA
  red meat production, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Indonesia

Friday,
April 21:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer’s
  weekly crop condition report
• US
  cattle on feed, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Brazil, Indonesia

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

USDA
export sales

USDA
export sales were poor for soybeans and soybean oil. Soybean meal sales came in at the lower end of expectations. Corn sales were withing looking at the combined old and new crop figures, and wheat was within expectations. China sales for soybeans were 35,100
tons. China bought 420,000 tons of corn (decreases of 17,400 tons) for 2022-23. New crop corn sales were 272,000 tons. Sorghum sales of 30,000 tons, all for unknown. Pork sales were 36,100 tons.

 

 

 

Macros

US
Initial Jobless Claims Apr 15: 245K (est 240K; prev 239K)

US
Continuing Claims Apr 8: 1865K (est 1825K; prev 1810K)

US
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Apr: -31.3 (est -19.3; prev -23.2)

 

 

Corn

·        
US corn futures are trending lower on weaker wheat prices and easing concerns over short term Black Sea shipment delays. 

·        
IGC raised their estimate of the world corn crop by 6 million tons to 1.208 million tons.

·        
EIA US weekly ethanol production rebounded 65,000 barrels for the week ending 4/14 to 1.024 million barrels, highest since February 17, on good US production margins after some plants went offline late March. US stocks increased
for the first time in five weeks, by 165,000 barrels to 25.293 million.

·        
President Biden sees year-round sales of E15 in eight Midwest states by summer 2024. Note most gas stations are still not equipped to handle E15.

·        
The USDA Broiler Report showed eggs set in the US up slightly and chicks placed down slightly. Cumulative placements were up slightly from the same period a year earlier.

 

Export
developments.

·        
The Philippines bought 50,000 tons of corn from South America at $300/ton c&f for July shipment.

 

Due
out Friday after the close

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybean complex is lower on follow through selling in the products. Weaker Brazil soybean premiums are also negative for CBOT soybeans. “The premiums’ levels fell to as low as -200 basis points per bushel this week in ports
like Paranagua for May shipments” Reuters via Eduardo Vanin. Yesterday there a good producer selling in Brazil.

·        
US export interest for soybeans and grains has slowed this week.

·        
Argentina unions ended their strike at the Rosario port.

·        
An official from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs sees little growth in soybean acreage this year despite the governments initiative to become less dependent on soybean imports. 2022 production expanded nearly
24 percent to 20.3 million tons from the previous year.

·        
CNGOIC reported China crush 1.6 million tons of soybeans over as of April 17, a 15 percent increase from the week earlier, and nearly 13 percent below year ago. Imported soybean stocks at eastern crush plants were 3 million tons,
6 percent below a year ago. Soybean meal stocks of 290,000 tons are lowest since December and soybean oil stocks of 590,000 tons are 25 percent below this time last year.

·        
Malaysia will be on holiday April 21 and 24th.

·        
Cargo surveyor AmSpec reported month to date April 20 Malaysian palm exports at 696,463 tons, down from 938,690 tons from a month earlier or 25.8%. ITS reported 748,535 tons, down from 939,379 tons or 20.3 percent.  

·        
Malaysia July palm futures were down 30 ringgit to 3,705 and June cash was lower by $5.00 at
$897.00/ton.

·        
China May soybean futures were down 1.3%, meal down 1.7%, SBO down 1.4% and palm oil futures down 0.7%.

·        
Nearby Rotterdam vegetable oils were unchanged to 10 euros lower this time yesterday morning and meal 6-14 euros lower.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO  higher by about 11 points this morning and meal $4.20 short ton lower.

 

Export
Developments

• None
  reported.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are lower on follow through selling after grain inspections resumed across the Black Sea regions and the weather forecast calling for parts
of the dry areas of US HRW wheat country to get rain over the next five days. However, keep in mind the northern spring wheat areas are again under another weather advisory and flooding is still an issue around the Red River basin.

·        
Argentina will extend the time allowed for wheat exporters to reschedule their shipments in a bid to ensure local supply after the wheat crop fell to 12.6 million tons from 22.1 million tons year earlier.

·        
September Paris wheat futures are lower by 4.25 euros to 249.25 euros per ton.

·        
IGC left their estimate of the world wheat crop unchanged at 787 million tons.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
The Philippines bought 60,000 tons of feed wheat from Australia at $290/ton c&f for July shipment.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley May 3 for October through FH November shipment.

·        
Japan bought 66,377 tons of food wheat. Original details as follows:

·        
China plans to sell 40,000 tons of wheat from state reserves on April 26.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of optional origin wheat on May 2.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Sugar futures hit another multi-decade high on India concerns and El Nino.

 

 

Export Sales Highlights

This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period April 7-13, 2023.  

Wheat:  Net sales of 259,000 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 91 percent from
the previous week and 93 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for South Korea (83,000 MT), Taiwan (52,900 MT), the Philippines (38,000 MT), Venezuela (35,000 MT), and unknown destinations (16,900 MT), were offset by reductions for Honduras
(7,000 MT), Belize (5,600 MT), and Mexico (1,100 MT). Net sales of 46,100 MT for 2023/2024 were primarily for Mexico (10,000 MT), Honduras (10,000 MT), Colombia (7,500 MT), Japan (7,000 MT), and El Salvador (6,000 MT). Exports of 202,800 MT were down 28 percent
from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (59,000 MT), Thailand (56,600 MT), Panama (27,300 MT), Nigeria (26,400 MT), and Colombia (13,300 MT). 

Corn:  Net sales of 312,400 MT for 2022/2023 were down 41 percent from the previous
week and 79 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (420,000 MT, including decreases of 17,400 MT), Saudi Arabia (73,200 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Colombia (71,500 MT, including 60,300 MT switched
from unknown destinations), Iraq (44,100 MT, including 42,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Japan (35,500 MT, including 38,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 9,100 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations
(291,800 MT), Mexico (121,200 MT), El Salvador (3,700 MT), Guatemala (1,900 MT), and Costa Rica (1,800 MT). Net sales of 422,000 MT for 2023/2024 were reported for China (272,000 MT) and Mexico (150,000 MT). Exports of 1,298,500 MT were up 42 percent from
the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (410,800 MT), Japan (267,600 MT), Colombia (122,400 MT), Peru (104,700 MT), and China (77,800 MT). 

Barley:  No net sales or exports were reported for the week. 

Sorghum:  Total net sales of 30,000 MT for 2022/2023 were down 54 percent from the
previous week, but up 89 percent from the prior 4-week average, with unknown being the destination. Exports of 59,100 MT were up 13 percent from the previous week, but down 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were to China (58,500 MT)
and Mexico (600 MT). 

Rice:  Net sales of 10,500 MT for 2022/2023 were down 71 percent from the previous week and 75 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases
primarily for El Salvador (6,300 MT, including 800 MT switched from Guatemala and decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (3,200 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Jordan (800 MT), and Guam (100 MT), were offset by reductions for Guatemala (100 MT) and the Dominican
Republic (100 MT). Exports of 17,300 MT were down 48 percent from the previous week and 53 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (7,900 MT), Venezuela (4,300 MT), El Salvador (2,500 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), and Jordan
(800 MT).  

Soybeans:  Net sales of 100,100 MT for 2022/2023 were down 73 percent from the previous
week and 58 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for the Netherlands (128,300 MT, including 126,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,300 MT), Mexico (45,900 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), China (35,100 MT,
including decreases of 200 MT), Indonesia (28,400 MT, including decreases of 1,000 MT), and Japan (25,200 MT, including 9,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (197,000 MT). Net sales of 2,900 MT for
2023/2024 were reported for Taiwan (2,000 MT) and Japan (900 MT). Exports of 582,800 MT were down 15 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (296,700 MT), the Netherlands (128,300
MT), Mexico (74,700 MT), Canada (28,100 MT), and Indonesia (21,800 MT).   

Optional Origin Sales:  For 2022/2023, the current outstanding balance of 300 MT,
all South Korea. 

Export for Own Account:  For 2022/2023, the current exports for own account outstanding
balance of 1,600 MT are for Canada (1,400 MT) and Taiwan (200 MT). 

Soybean Cake and Meal:  Net sales of 144,500 MT for 2022/2023 were down 43 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week
average. Increases primarily for the Philippines (46,200 MT), Tunisia (30,000 MT), Canada (20,100 MT, including decreases of 11,400 MT), Venezuela (18,000 MT), and Spain (10,500 MT switched from Poland), were offset by reductions for Poland (6,000 MT), Burma
(1,400 MT), and Japan (800 MT). Exports of 239,600 MT were up 21 percent from the previous week, but down 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to the Philippines (51,500 MT), Poland (39,000 MT), Mexico (31,700 MT), Colombia
(27,500 MT), and Guatemala (25,300 MT).

 

Soybean Oil:  Net sales of 200 MT for 2022/2023 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 98 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Increases were reported for Canada (100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT) and Mexico (100 MT). Exports of 600 MT were down 65 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were to Canada (500 MT) and Mexico
(100 MT). 

 

Cotton:  Net sales of 62,100 RB for 2022/2023 were down 57 percent from the previous week and 72 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases
primarily for Bangladesh (27,700 RB), Pakistan (18,200 RB, including decreases of 4,800 RB), China (9,500 RB, including 1,900 RB switched from Singapore and decreases of 6,600 RB), Vietnam (5,900 RB, including 1,400 RB switched from South Korea, 200 RB switched
from Taiwan, and decreases of 3,100 RB), and Indonesia (4,600 RB), were offset by reductions for South Korea (9,200 RB) and Singapore (1,900 RB). Net sales of 38,000 RB for 2023/2024 were primarily for Pakistan (12,300 RB), Mexico (10,400 RB), Turkey (7,500
RB), Vietnam (3,100 RB), and Indonesia (2,200 RB). Exports of 289,800 RB were down 13 percent from the previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (72,200 RB), China (64,100 RB), Turkey (51,700 RB),
Pakistan (38,600 RB), and Indonesia (15,800 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 25,200 RB for 2022/2023 were down 22 percent from the previous week, but up 48 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for China (10,800 RB), India (10,000
RB, including decreases of 1,700 RB), Vietnam (3,000 RB), Indonesia (700 RB), and Bangladesh (400 RB). Exports of 16,800 RB–a marketing-year high–were up 90 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. The destinations
were primarily to Vietnam (5,200 RB), India (3,500 RB), China (2,900 RB), Peru (1,300 RB), and Egypt (1,300 RB). 

 

Optional Origin Sales:  For 2022/2023, the current outstanding balance of 5,800 RB, all Malaysia.  

Export for Own Account:  For 2022/2023, new exports for own account totaling 5,700
RB were primarily to China (3,900 RB). Exports for own account totaling 2,200 RB reported to Vietnam were applied to new or outstanding sales. Decreases of 700 RB were to China. The current exports for own account outstanding balance of 138,200 RB are for
China (117,500 RB), Vietnam (10,600 RB), Pakistan (5,000 RB), South Korea (2,400 RB), India (1,500 RB), and Turkey (1,200 RB). 

Hides and Skins:  Net sales of 404,700 pieces for 2023 were down 18 percent from
the previous week, but up 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (275,600 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 19,300 pieces), Mexico (42,400 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 5,600 pieces), Thailand (32,800 whole
cattle hides, including decreases of 7,400 pieces), South Korea (21,400 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 22,200 pieces), and Turkey (18,000 whole cattle hides), were offset by reductions for Italy (500 pieces), Spain (100 pieces), and Brazil (100
pieces). In addition, net sales of 300 kip skins resulting in increases for Belgium (1,300 kip skins), were offset by reductions for Canada (1,000 kip skins). Exports of 400,400 pieces were down 1 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior
4-week average. Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (273,600 pieces), Mexico (41,400 pieces), South Korea (29,200 pieces), Thailand (15,800 pieces), and Italy (13,300 pieces). Exports of 1,300 kip skins were to Canada.   

Net sales of 319,400 wet blues for 2023 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily
for China (109,700 unsplit), Brazil (90,000 unsplit), Italy (75,800 unsplit, including decreases of 100 unsplit), Vietnam (39,700 unsplit) and Mexico (1,800 grain splits and 800 unsplit). Exports of 136,500 wet blues were up 18 percent from the previous week
and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (46,100 unsplit), Italy (30,700 unsplit), Vietnam (26,800 unsplit), Thailand (11,500 unsplit), and Brazil (5,500 unsplit and 2,100 grain splits). Total net sales of 5,400
splits were for Vietnam. Exports of 74,700 pounds were to Vietnam.   

Beef:  Net sales of 19,100 MT for 2023 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 47 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases
were primarily for South Korea (5,500 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Japan (4,200 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Mexico (2,800 MT), Taiwan (2,200 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and China (2,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). Exports of
16,000 MT were up 1 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (4,500 MT), Japan (3,700 MT), China (2,400 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), and Taiwan (1,200 MT).

 

Pork:  Net sales of 36,100 MT for 2023 were up 33 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases
primarily for Mexico (13,100 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Japan (4,600 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Australia (4,200 MT), South Korea (3,500 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), and Colombia (3,000 MT), were offset by reductions for Nicaragua
(400 MT). Exports of 34,100 MT were down 8 percent from the previous week, but up 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (13,600 MT), China (5,500 MT), Japan (3,500 MT), South Korea (3,300 MT), and Canada (1,400
MT).

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  4/13/2023  

 

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	63.3	621.6	1,077.2	37.4	4,411.7	6,415.5	1.8	123.8
SRW	-9.0	376.1	414.6	69.4	2,434.3	2,437.8	33.5	485.3
HRS	125.1	949.0	753.8	58.9	4,717.6	4,645.3	10.8	121.1
WHITE	37.7	605.5	353.4	35.6	4,006.2	2,977.1	0.0	43.2
DURUM	41.9	92.6	15.5	1.4	321.0	174.4	0.0	36.9
TOTAL	259.0	2,644.8	2,614.5	202.8	15,890.7	16,650.1	46.1	810.2
BARLEY	0.0	3.3	5.8	0.0	8.2	14.7	0.0	6.0
CORN	312.4	15,456.8	20,078.7	1,298.5	22,595.1	36,570.0	422.0	2,422.4
SORGHUM	30.0	663.8	2,203.9	59.1	930.8	4,500.6	0.0	63.0
SOYBEANS	100.1	4,047.8	11,078.6	582.8	46,333.0	46,017.2	2.9	1,769.8
SOY MEAL	144.5	2,647.4	2,715.0	239.6	6,762.1	6,736.1	0.0	343.5
SOY OIL	0.2	67.0	141.0	0.6	36.3	505.9	0.0	0.6
RICE
L G RGH	6.7	108.4	202.0	12.7	514.2	1,012.7	0.0	0.0
M S RGH	2.4	33.7	9.2	1.1	21.6	11.8	0.0	5.0
L G BRN	-0.2	4.5	6.1	0.2	15.9	44.5	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	0.0	35.7	23.9	0.0	9.1	62.7	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	0.4	181.6	93.9	1.3	481.3	614.5	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	1.2	126.8	224.4	2.0	200.7	282.9	0.0	13.0
TOTAL	10.5	490.6	559.4	17.3	1,242.8	2,029.1	0.0	18.0
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	62.1	4,389.9	6,589.9	289.8	7,436.2	7,779.9	38.0	1,437.4
PIMA	25.2	98.2	123.7	16.8	143.0	327.6	0.0	4.7