FI Morning Grain Comments 04/21/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning. 

 

The
USD was down 23 points and WTI crude oil up $0.23 at the time this was written.
US
equities were higher before the US initial claims report. Agriculture prices sold off post USDA export sales report. Brazil is on holiday today. Argentina’s Rosario grains exchange raised its 2021-22 soybean production estimate to 41.2 million tons from previous
40 million tons. Taiwan bought 47,120 tons of US wheat for June 2 through June 21 if shipped off the PNW. Japan bought 27,320 tons of wheat on Thursday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR APRIL 21, 2022

• Excessive
  heat will occur in the central and southern U.S. Plains Thursday with afternoon temperatures in the 90s Fahrenheit occurring while very strong wind speeds evolve
  
• relatively
  humidity will be low resulting in a quick loss in soil moisture
• The
  heat will start in the southern Plains today and it will ultimately end up in the U.S. Midwest, Delta and southeastern states this weekend
• Cooling
  is expected in the Plains this weekend and in the Midwest next week, but another round of heat is expected in the central states during mid- to late-week next week
• Less
  frequent and less significant precipitation in the eastern Midwest, Tennessee River Basin and southeastern states will lead to some net drying and improved planting conditions
• U.S.
  Midwest rain frequency will be greatest from Missouri to Illinois and Wisconsin through the weekend
• Excessive
  moisture, deep snow cover poor melting conditions for the snow will delay fieldwork from North Dakota into Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan Canada into the second week of May
• Dryness
  will remain in the southwestern Canada Prairies and in most of the high Plains region of U.S. hard red winter wheat country during the next ten days to two weeks
• U.S.
  southeastern states will likely move into a period of aggressive drying that will eventually deplete soil moisture, but the environment initially will be great for spring planting
• Mato
  Grosso, Brazil remains on the list of areas to watch because of low soil moisture and limited precipitation into next month
  
• these
  conditions may stress cotton and especially corn as crops reproduce and fill – possibly reducing yield if there is no precipitation in May
• Argentina
  and southern Brazil crop weather is mostly good and little change is expected
• No
  major weather concerns are present in Europe, China or India, although there is still market chatter about lower yields in India because of March heat and dryness
  
• Winter
  production was still quite successful even though there was a little disappointment at the end of the growing season
• West-central
  Russia remains too wet and needs to dry down along with parts of Belarus
• Eastern
  Australia sorghum and cotton harvesting is advancing best in Queensland and that may continue to be the trend for a while
• Wheat,
  barley and canola prospects in Australia are still good
• South
  Africa weather is still a little wetter than desired and needs to dry down
• most
  coffee, cocoa, sugarcane and rice areas in the world should be experiencing relatively good weather

Source:
World Weather Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
April 21:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• International
  Grains Council monthly report
• USDA
  red meat production, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Brazil

Friday,
April 22:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• First
  quarter cocoa grinding data from Cocoa Association of Asia
• Brazil’s
  Unica may release cane crush and sugar output data (tentative)
• U.S.
  cattle on feed; cold storage data for pork, beef and poultry, 3pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
Export Sales

While
USDA soybean 2021-22 sales came in at a low 460,200 tons, new-crop was above expectations at 1.240 million tons. Old crop soybean sales included increases for China (496,400 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,000
MT), Indonesia (81,000 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 100 MT), Bangladesh (57,000 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Egypt (53,700 MT, including decreases of 1,300MT). 2022-23 soybean
sales included China (669,000 MT), unknown destinations (351,000 MT), and Spain (131,000 MT).  

 

Soybean
meal sales were near the lower end of expectations but shipments were ok at 348,400 tons. Soybean oil sales were poor at 1,300 tons and shipments were 5,500 tons.

 

USDA
corn export sales were 879,200 tons old crop and 389,600 tons new crop. 2021-22 included China (675,200 MT, including decreases of5,600 MT), South Korea (126,200 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 6,800 MT), and Mexico
(75,500 MT, including decreases of 34,600 MT). 340,000 tons of new crop were booked by China. USDA sorghum export sales were a net reduction of 53,600 tons for 2021-22. Increases reported for China (11,400 MT, including decreases of 2,100MT), were more than
offset by reductions for unknown destinations (65,000MT). Pork sales were 12,900 tons and didn’t include China.

 

All-wheat
export sales were a low 26,400 tons old crop. New-crop were 238,400 tons, low for this time of year.

 

 

 

Macros

US
Initial Jobless Claims Apr 16: 184K (est 180K; prev 185K; prevR 186K)

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn is lower following weakness in wheat, lower than expected USDA export sales and profit taking after contract highs were established on Wednesday. Look for a choppy trade.

·        
Argentina’s Rosario grains exchange increased its corn area for the 2021-22 crop to 8.42 million hectares from 7.96 million hectares previously, boosting the corn production estimate to 49.2 million tons from 47.7 million previously. 

·        
Ukraine is about 20 percent complete for summer grain planting progress, or 2.5 million hectares of the intended total. The area was expected by the AgMin to drop about 20 percent from the previous season.

·        
Weekly US ethanol production decreased 48,000 barrels from the previous week to 947 thousand barrels per day (bbl), lowest level since September 24, 2021.

·        
Ethanol stocks decreased 461,000 barrels to 24.342 million, third consecutive weekly decline and stocks are down 2.187 million barrels over the past three weeks. 

·        
The USDA Broiler Report showed eggs set in the US down slightly and chicks placed up slightly from a year ago.
Cumulative
placements from the week ending January 8, 2022, through April 16, 2022, for the United States were 2.79 billion. Cumulative placements were down slightly from the same period a year earlier.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

 

Soybeans

·        
After settling at contract highs yesterday for soybeans and soybean oil, the soybean complex is lower in part to less than  expected export sales and lower lead in the grain markets.

·        
Argentina’s Rosario grains exchange raised its 2021-22 soybean production estimate to 41.2 million tons from previous 40 million tons.

·        
China remains a potential buyer of 2021-22 US soybeans. In a China crush margin article by Reuters, they noted China has secured only about 20 percent of 7-8 million tons of soybean imports needed each month between June-August.
Currently US soybeans Gulf FOB are priced cheaper than Brazil from June through August period. Reuters also noted “Crush margins for Brazilian and U.S. soybeans for delivery in June and July are currently around -20 yuan ($3.11) to -5 yuan per ton, while margins
for August U.S. Gulf cargoes were slightly positive.”

·        
CNGOIC reported China soybean stocks for the week ending April 17 at 3.2 million tons, about 350,000 tons higher than the previous week but still down 1.2 million tons from this time a year ago.  Soybean meal stocks were off 30,000
tons to only 310,000 tons, more than half of what they held in inventories a year ago. Soybean oil inventories were 790,000 tons, up 10,000 from the previous week and 200,000 higher than a year ago. The weekly crush increased 190,000 tons to 1.4 million tons,
about 200,000 tons below a year ago.

·        
A Sioux City IA soybean crushing plant will be down until nearly mid-May.

·        
Indonesia set its May crude palm oil reference price at $1,657.39 a ton, below April’s $1,787.5 per ton. The May reference price pegs the May export levy and export tax at maximum at $375 per ton and $200 per ton, respectively

·        
Malaysia palm futures trended higher by 4MYR and cash was unchanged at $1,590/ton.

·        
China soybean futures increased 0.8 percent, soybean meal up 1.7%, SBO up 0.5%, and palm oil down 0.4%.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were unchanged to 15 euros higher and meal wheat imported from SA mostly higher by 3-7 euros.

·        
Offshore values are leading soybean oil 17 points lower and meal $1.90 lower.

 

Export
Developments

·        
China looks for sell another 500,000 tons of soybeans this week.

 

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat is
lower on technical selling and improving weather for the upper Great Plains. USDA export sales were reported near the lower end of expectations, on a combined crop-year basis.

·        
Egypt said they have enough wheat reserves, after securing local wheat, to last until the end of January 2023.

·        
SovEcon estimated a record 2022 Russian wheat crop of 87.4 million tons, up from a previous forecast of 86.5 million tons. Russia harvested 76.0 million tons of wheat in 2021. They pegged Russia wheat exports in for 2022-23 (Jun-Jul)
at 41.0 million tons compared to 33.9 million tons in the current season.

·        
BA Grains Exchange: Argentina wheat planted are projected at 6.5 million hectares, down from 6.5 million last season. 2021-22 production was 21.8 million tons.

·        
September EU wheat futures were 2.50 euros higher at 363.50 euros.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Taiwan bought 47,120 tons of US wheat for June 2 through June 21 if shipped off the PNW. It included 32,950 tons of 14.5% protein dark northern spring wheat at $475.80 a ton. 12.5% hard red winter wheat was bought at $511.56 a
ton FOB, and 10.5% soft white wheat at $424.57 a ton.

·        
Japan bought 27,320 tons of wheat on Thursday. Original details as follows. 

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on April 26 for Aug and/or Sep shipment.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat. on April 27 for Jun and/or Aug shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported

 

 

USDA Export Sales

 

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  4/14/2022

 

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	-55.8	1,077.2	1,102.1	201.1	6,415.5	7,518.7	81.0	584.7
SRW	17.4	414.6	245.6	89.9	2,437.8	1,528.9	78.0	587.0
HRS	78.1	753.8	1,271.0	141.2	4,645.3	6,409.1	28.5	567.9
WHITE	-13.7	353.4	1,332.7	71.4	2,977.1	5,296.9	50.9	337.2
DURUM	0.4	15.5	69.7	0.4	174.4	594.9	0.0	64.4
TOTAL	26.3	2,614.5	4,021.0	504.0	16,650.1	21,348.6	238.4	2,141.2
BARLEY	0.0	5.8	4.5	0.0	14.7	24.7	0.0	8.6
CORN	879.2	20,078.7	27,805.3	1,196.4	36,570.0	39,393.0	389.6	3,363.4
SORGHUM	-53.6	2,203.9	1,943.8	280.8	4,500.6	5,107.0	0.0	0.0
SOYBEANS	460.2	11,078.6	5,102.5	889.0	46,017.2	55,724.4	1,240.0	10,161.3
SOY MEAL	101.8	2,715.0	2,142.7	348.4	6,783.4	7,117.2	27.0	370.4
SOY OIL	1.2	141.0	101.9	5.5	505.9	557.2	0.0	0.0
RICE
L G RGH	32.7	202.0	319.9	10.0	1,012.7	1,183.3	0.0	0.0
M S RGH	6.8	9.2	5.3	0.4	11.8	23.5	0.0	0.0
L G BRN	0.3	6.1	3.0	0.3	44.5	35.2	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	0.1	23.9	68.5	0.1	62.7	86.1	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	20.3	93.9	52.7	10.2	614.5	483.7	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	4.5	224.4	247.2	17.1	282.9	402.1	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	64.7	559.4	696.5	38.1	2,029.1	2,214.0	0.0	0.0
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	50.5	6,589.9	4,586.8	367.1	7,779.9	10,485.4	136.1	2,796.6
PIMA	3.8	123.7	207.2	14.7	327.6	549.4	5.5	40.1

 

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period April 8-14, 2022.

Wheat:  Net
sales of 26,300 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022–a marketing-year low–were down 73 percent from the previous week and 79 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (90,500 MT, including decreases of 1,000 MT), Haiti (27,000 MT switched
from unknown destinations), Ghana (26,000 MT switched from Nigeria), Cameroon (23,000 MT, including 20,000 MT switched from Nigeria), and Italy (15,000 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Nigeria (131,000 MT).  Net sales of 238,400 MT for 2022/2023
were primarily for Nigeria (86,000 MT), unknown destinations (75,000 MT), Japan (45,900 MT), Mexico (13,000 MT), and South Korea (9,500 MT).  Exports of 504,000 MT were up 48 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations
were primarily to Mexico (77,300 MT), Thailand (60,200 MT), Taiwan (57,100 MT), Guatemala (39,400 MT), and South Korea (38,500 MT). 

Corn: 
Net sales of 879,200 MT for 2021/2022 were down 34 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (675,200 MT, including decreases of 5,600 MT), South Korea (126,200 MT, including 68,000 MT switched
from unknown destinations and decreases of 6,800 MT), Mexico (75,500 MT, including decreases of 34,600 MT), Indonesia (67,200 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 800 MT), and Saudi Arabia (42,800 MT, including 40,000
MT switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (234,000 MT).  Net sales of 389,600 MT for 2022/2023 were reported for China (340,000 MT), Colombia (40,000 MT), Mexico (5,100 MT), and Canada (4,500 MT). 
Exports of 1,196,400 MT were down 23 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (402,400 MT), Mexico (275,900 MT), Japan (104,300 MT), Indonesia (67,200 MT), and South Korea (61,900
MT).

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2021/2022, the current outstanding balance of 533,300 MT is for unknown destinations (365,000 MT), South Korea (65,000 MT), Morocco (60,000 MT), Italy (34,300 MT), and Saudi Arabia (9,000 MT).  For 2022/2023, new optional origin
sales of 52,000 MT were reported for Italy.  The current outstanding balance of 58,400 MT is for Italy.

Barley:
No net sales or exports were reported for the week.

Sorghum: 
Net sales reductions of 53,600 MT for 2021/2022–a marketing-year low–were down noticeably from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for China (11,400 MT, including decreases of 2,100 MT), were more than
offset by reductions for unknown destinations (65,000 MT).  Exports of 280,800 MT were up 98 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations was China.

Rice: 
Net sales of 64,700 MT for 2021/2022 were up 29 percent from the previous week and 63 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (40,100 MT), Haiti (15,200 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Canada (3,300 MT), Saudi Arabia
(1,900 MT), and Jordan (1,800 MT).  Exports of 38,100 MT were down 19 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (12,100 MT), Honduras (9,100 MT), Haiti (7,100 MT), Canada (3,700 MT),
and Mexico (2,100 MT).

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 460,200 MT for 2021/2022 were down 16 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (496,400 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,000 MT), Indonesia
(81,000 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 100 MT), Bangladesh (57,000 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Egypt (53,700 MT, including decreases of 1,300 MT), and Japan (51,600 MT, including
45,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,600 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (326,300 MT) and Spain (66,000 MT).  Net sales of 1,240,000 MT for 2022/2023 were primarily for China (669,000 MT), unknown destinations
(351,000 MT), Spain (131,000 MT), the Netherlands (66,000 MT), and Mexico (20,000 MT).  Exports of 889,000 MT were up 10 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (294,000 MT), Indonesia
(109,700 MT), Mexico (102,300 MT), the Netherlands (84,200 MT), and Japan (67,600 MT). 

Export
for Own Account:
For 2021/2022, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 3,000 MT, all Canada.

Soybean
Cake and Meal: 
Net sales of 101,800 MT for 2021/2022 were down 42 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for the Philippines (47,200 MT),  Colombia (25,500 MT, including decreases of 1,100 MT), Mexico (21,600 MT),
Canada (15,200 MT, including decreases of 1,100 MT), and El Salvador (6,400 MT switched from Guatemala), were offset by reductions primarily for Ireland (12,000 MT), unknown destinations (4,500 MT), Guatemala (4,100 MT), and Morocco (2,200 MT).  Net sales
of 27,000 MT for 2022/2023 were reported for Colombia (15,000 MT) and Ireland (12,000 MT).  Exports of 348,400 MT were down noticeably from the previous week and down 88 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to the Philippines
(49,400 MT), Ecuador (47,000 MT), Mexico (44,600 MT), Vietnam (43,900 MT), and Colombia (25,500 MT).

Soybean
Oil: 
Net sales of 1,200 MT for 2021/2022 were down 81 percent from the previous week and 88 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Guatemala (800 MT), were offset by reductions for Mexico (300 MT).  Exports of 5,500 were up 84 percent from
the previous week, but down 74 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Jamaica (3,500 MT) and Mexico (1,400 MT).

Cotton: 
Net sales of 50,500 RB for 2021/2022–a marketing-year low–were down 15 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for India (19,500 RB, including decreases of 13,500 RB), Peru (10,300 RB), Guatemala
(6,200 RB), China (4,700 RB), and Turkey (2,400 RB, including decreases of 9,600 RB), were offset by reductions for Indonesia (900 RB), Honduras (500 RB), and South Korea (400 RB).  Net sales of 136,100 RB for 2022/2023 were primarily for Turkey (48,400 RB),
Mexico (30,100 RB), Honduras (17,400 RB), Peru (11,900 RB), and Indonesia (9,700 RB).  Exports of 367,100 RB were up 10 percent from the previous week, but down 6 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (146,800 RB),
Pakistan (57,000 RB), Turkey (55,400 RB), Vietnam (42,300 RB), and Mexico (10,800 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 3,800 RB were up 79 percent from the previous week, but down 20 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Pakistan
(1,500 RB), Vietnam (900 RB), Bangladesh (700 RB), Turkey (400 RB), and India (200 RB).  Net sales of 5,500 RB for 2022/2023 were reported for Peru (4,300 RB), India (700 RB), Germany (400 RB), and Japan (100 RB).  Exports of 14,700 RB were down 19 percent
from the previous week, but up 22 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to India (5,700 RB), China (5,200 RB), Turkey (1,200 RB), Peru (1,100 RB), and Taiwan (400 RB). 

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2021/2022, the current outstanding balance of 57,200 RB is for Vietnam (52,800 RB) and Pakistan (4,400 RB). 

Exports
for Own Account: For
2021/2022, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 100 RB, all Vietnam.

Hides
and Skins: 
Net sales of 473,700 pieces for 2022 were up 15 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (271,100 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 17,100 pieces), Thailand (125,700 whole cattle hides,
including decreases of 1,300 pieces), Mexico (27,800 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 600 pieces), South Korea (20,300 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 700 pieces), and Indonesia (13,100 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 700 pieces),
were offset by reductions for Argentina (600 pieces), Brazil (400 pieces), and Taiwan (300 pieces).  Exports of 377,900 pieces were down 36 percent from the previous week and 26 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily
to China (206,500 pieces), South Korea (45,400 pieces), Mexico (34,300 pieces), Thailand (34,000 pieces), and Taiwan (25,300 pieces).

Net
sales of 270,800 wet blues for 2022 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 89 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Italy (86,200 unsplit and 9,000 grain splits, including decreases of 100 unsplit), China (58,000 unsplit,
including decreases of 200 unsplit), Vietnam (53,600 unsplit), Thailand (31,800 unsplit), and Portugal (16,000 grain splits), were offset by reductions for Hong Kong (100 unsplit).  Exports of 171,300 wet blues were up 3 percent from the previous week, but
down 8 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Italy (41,400 unsplit and 16,200 grain splits), China (31,400 unsplit), Vietnam (30,400 unsplit), Thailand (25,700 unsplit), and Hong Kong (10,900 unsplit).  Net sales of 999,000
splits were down noticeably from the previous week, but up 96 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Vietnam (623,400 pounds, including decreases of 17,100 pounds), South Korea (249,600 pounds, including decreases of 2,900 pounds),
and China (126,000 pounds).  Exports of 686,900 pounds were down 11 percent from the previous week, but up 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (557,700 pounds) and South Korea (85,300 pounds).

Beef: 
Net sales of 15,000 MT for 2022 were down 13 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Japan (4,600 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), South Korea (4,100 MT, including decreases of 700 MT),
China (2,500 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), Canada (1,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Taiwan (600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).  Exports of 21,000 MT were up 13 percent from the previous week, but down 16 percent from the prior 4-week
average.  The destinations were primarily to South Korea (6,800 MT), Japan (5,200 MT), China (3,600 MT), Taiwan (1,200 MT), and Mexico (1,000 MT). 

Pork: 
Net sales of 12,900 MT for 2022–a marketing-year low–were down 46 percent from the previous week and 55 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (4,700 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), South Korea (2,800 MT, including decreases
of 1,300 MT), the Philippines (1,300 MT), Canada (800 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), and the Dominican Republic (700 MT), were offset by reductions for China (100 MT).  Exports of 28,200 MT were down 11 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from
the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (11,600 MT), Japan (4,600 MT), China (3,800 MT), South Korea (2,700 MT), and Canada (1,300 MT).