FI Morning Grain Comments 04/22/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Higher
trade for this morning with corn at a 2013 high, soybeans at a 2014 high and wheat at a late February high.  Palm oil hit a one-month high.  Palm futures were up 95MYR and cash up $20/ton.  Parts of the US saw another cold morning. Traditional and managed
money fund long positions are expected to post a record corn position when updated Friday afternoon.  Part of the reason we should see large managed money positions is that the CME on March 1 raised their position limits for ags. 
https://www.cmegroup.com/rulebook/files/cme-group-Rule-562-pending.pdf

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

Next
7 days

 

World
Weather Inc. 

TODAY’S
HIGHLIGHTS

• Southwestern
  Ohio temperatures were 26-30 degrees Fahrenheit this morning
• Central
  North Carolina and Central Virginia temperatures this morning slipped to 27-30 degrees Fahrenheit
• No
  significant frost or freeze in U.S. Delta or Tennessee River Basin this morning
• Hot
  temperatures still advertised for central and southern Plains Sunday into Tuesday with Monday hottest – highs in the 80s to near 90F
• Severe
  weather potential and heavy rain event possible during mid-week next week in U.S. Delta and parts of Illinois
• Less
  rain in Iowa/southern Minnesota and southwestern Wisconsin for mid-week next week
• Dry
  conditions for at least 10 days in west and south Texas
• West-central
  U.S. high Plains region may not get good rain until early May and that opportunity seems limited
• Northern
  U.S. Plains and southern Canada will get only brief periods of light precipitation, but at least some moisture is expected periodically in the next ten days – much more rain is still needed
• Brazil
  Safrinha corn areas are still advertised to be dry biased over the next ten days in Sao Paulo, SW Minas Gerais, southern Goias and neighboring areas
• Less
  rain was suggested in Mato Grosso do Sul and southern Mato Grosso during the coming two weeks
• 06z
  GFS model was not very generous with rain for the first week of May and was drier than the 00z model run
• A
  compromise between the two model runs is most likely to verify
• Argentina
  weather will remain well mixed over the next two weeks with today and Friday’s rain greatest for a while
  
• Europe’s
  North Sea region is still advertised lighter than usual in precipitation until after day ten when some moisture is possible
• Western
  CIS is still advertised to be wet during the coming week and then a little drier
• Temperatures
  will be cooler biased for a while
• No
  significant changes noted for India, China, Australia, South Africa, North Africa or southeastern Asia relative to Wednesday

Source:
World Weather Inc. & FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
April 22:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Platts
  Agriculture Week conference, day 3
• USDA
  red meat production
• EARNINGS:
  Suedzucker, Barry Callebaut

Friday,
April 23:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• U.S.
  Cattle on Feed, Poultry Slaughter 3pm
• U.S.
  cold storage – pork, beef, poultry

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
Export Sales

Nearly
all the major commodities for USDA export sales came in within expectations, but not at levels that the trade would like to see export demand. New-crop corn fell short of expectations and old crop wheat was slightly higher than expected.  We are looking for
USDA to take 2020-21 US corn exports up in the May USDA S&D by 50-100 million bushels.  Sorghum sales were only 7,000 tons after hit a marketing year high on China demand week earlier.  Barley sales were only 100 tons.  Pork sales were 22,100 tons, a marketing
year low. 

 

 

 

Macro

US
Initial Jobless Claims Apr-17: 547K (exp 610K; R prev 586K)

–         
Continuing Claims Apr-10: 3674K (exp 3600K; R prev 3708K)

US
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Mar: 1.71 (exp 1.25; R prev -1.20)

 

Corn

• CBOT
  corn
  is higher this morning and nearby rolling futures are highest since July 2013.  Nothing has changed with fundamentals.  Yesterday there was talk China bought US corn and with the USDA Attaché lifting their China corn import projection by 4 million tons to
  28 million tons, traders are bullish US corn exports through the remainder of the summer. 
  
• The
  USD is slightly weaker this morning. 
• Brazil
  corn conditions are deteriorating and many expect the US to pick up the slack for some of the Brazil second corn crop exports.  Brazil’s Parana corn conditions as of Monday was rated 62% good condition, down from 76% a week earlier and 92% the prior week. 
  Rosario exchange estimated Argentina’s 2020-21 corn production at 50 million tons, up from 48.5 million tons previously. 
  
• S&P
  Global Platts estimated Ukraine corn production up 6% to 38 million tons. 
  
• We
  are hearing US ethanol margins are improving.  US
  ethanol production was unchanged from the previous week at 941,000 barrels and stocks declined 71,000.  Traders were looking for higher production and slightly lower stocks. 
  

 

Export
developments.

• None
  reported

 

Soybeans

• CBOT
  soybeans
  basis the May topped $15.20 overnight.  Soybean oil was up more than 130 points for the May and July positions and meal up $1.20-$2.20 short ton.  The extended rally is due in part to follow through buying on the same fundamentals with weather and demand dominating
  the bullish sentiment.  The most impressive market is soybean oil with nearby rolling futures hitting their highest level since July 2008.  Palm futures are at a one-month high.  CBOT crush margins are high enough to suggest there should be no reason to slow
  US processing through the summer.  Finding beans is another story. 
• US
  soybean and corn basis remains very strong, especially for this time of year. 
  
• Argentina’s
  soybean production was unchanged by the Rosario exchange at 45 million tons.  Buenos Aires Grains Exchange recently cut its 2020-21 Argentina soybean crop estimate to 43 million from 45 million tons.  Argentine farmers have sold 14.37 million tons of soybeans,
  below 19.23 million tons a year ago. 
• There
  were no changes to CBOT registrations.     
• Offshore
  values were leading CBOT SBO 73 points lower and meal $1.60 short ton higher. 
  
• Rotterdam
  vegetable oil values were 15-20 euros higher from this time previous session and Rotterdam meal mostly unchanged to 4 euros higher. 
  
• China
  cash crush margins on our analysis were 143 cents vs. 175 cents late last week and compares to 177 cents year earlier. 
  
• China:
  

• Malaysian
  palm oil: (uses settle price).
  

 

USDA
Attaché Argentina Oilseeds update

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Oilseeds%20and%20Products%20Annual_Buenos%20Aires_Argentina_04-15-2021

 

Export
Developments

• None
  reported but yesterday were rumors China bought cargoes from the US. 

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat is
  higher on strength in corn, robust Chinese demand and crop production concerns. 
  
• IKAR
  lowered their Russia 2021 wheat crop production estimate by 1.5 million tons to 79.5 million tons. 
  
• September
  Paris wheat was up 1.00 at 214.25 euros. 

 

Export
Developments.

• China
  is back in for French wheat and some traders think they booked about a half million tons new-crop for August shipment.  France exported about 1.6 million tons of wheat to China so far for 2020-21.  
  
• Japan
  bought  85,110 tons of food wheat from the US and Canada. Original details:
  

• Yesterday
  Jordan passed 120,000 tons of feed barley on April 21. 

• Ethiopia
  saw a few offers for their 430,000-ton wheat import tender.  Offers were near $313/ton c&f. 
  
• Results
  awaited: Ethiopia seeks 30,000 tons of wheat on April 16. 
• Results
  awaited: Ethiopia
  seeks 400,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat, on April 20, valid for 30 days.  In January Ethiopia cancelled 600,000 tons of wheat from a November import tender because of contractual disagreements. 
  

 

Rice/Other

·        
Bangladesh delayed their 50,000-ton rice import tender that was set to close April 18, to now April 26.  

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of rice on May 2.  

 

 

USDA Export Sales

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period April 9-15, 2021.

Wheat:  Net
sales of 240,200 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down noticeably from the previous week, but up 55 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (137,500 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), Taiwan (46,300 MT, including decreases
of 400 MT), Japan (30,300 MT), Italy (11,500 MT, including decreases of 8,000 MT), and the Philippines (11,000 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Vietnam (9,500 MT), El Salvador (7,000 MT), and Guatemala (3,500 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 373,800
MT were primarily for Japan (67,500 MT), unknown destinations (65,500 MT), China (65,000 MT), Mexico (60,200 MT), and Taiwan (51,000 MT).  Exports of 561,000 MT were up 20 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations
were primarily to the Philippines (131,000 MT), Thailand (108,800 MT), China (66,000 MT), South Korea (65,100 MT), and Mexico (57,300 MT). 

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2020/2021, new optional origin sales of 6,500 MT were reported for Spain.  The current outstanding balance of 35,500 MT is for Spain.

Corn: 
Net sales of 387,500 MT for 2020/2021 were up 18 percent from the previous week, but down 75 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (366,300 MT, including 36,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,400 MT
), South Korea (134,600 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from China, 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations, and decreases of 6,100 MT), Japan (103,500 MT, including 175,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 74,800 MT), Colombia
(80,600, including 20,500 MT switched from Panama and decreases of 53,600 MT), and Taiwan (72,800 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from China and decreases of 700 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (215,800 MT) and China (123,900
MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 29,500 MT were reported for Mexico (11,200 MT), El Salvador (7,500 MT), Nicaragua (7,500 MT), and Guatemala (3,300 MT).  Exports of 1,605,700 MT were down 12 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week
average.  The destinations were primarily to China (560,100 MT), Mexico (321,100 MT), South Korea (265,000 MT – including 69,200 MT – late), Japan (244,800 MT), and Taiwan (83,900 MT). 

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2020/2021, the current outstanding balance of 443,800 MT is for South Korea (213,000 MT), unknown destinations (189,500 MT), the Ukraine (32,400 MT), and China (8,900 MT).

Late
Reporting:
For 2020/2021, exports totaling 69,200 MT of corn were reported late to South Korea.

Barley: 
Total net sales of 100 MT for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were for Canada. 
Exports of 500 MT were up 5 percent from the previous week, but down 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were Canada (300 MT) and South Korea (200 MT).  

Sorghum: 
Net sales of 7,000 MT for 2020/2021 were down 99 percent from the previous week and 97 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for China (130,000 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from unknown destinations
and decreases of 4,800 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (123,000 MT).  For 2021/2022, total net sales of 116,000 MT were for China.  Exports of 256,300 MT were down 70 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week
average.  The destination was China.

Rice: 
Net sales of 96,900 MT for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (37,600 MT), Venezuela (28,600 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), the Dominican Republic (11,000 MT), Honduras
(5,400 MT), and Guatemala (5,400 MT).  Exports of 93,000 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Venezuela (55,600 MT), the Dominican Republic (19,700 MT), Mexico (3,900 MT), Canada
(3,000 MT), and South Korea (3,000 MT).

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2020/2021, new exports for own account totaling 100 MT were for Canada.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 100 MT, all Canada.

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 64,300 MT for 2020/2021 were down 29 percent from the previous week, but up 25 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Japan (58,200 MT, including 37,200 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,500 MT),
Bangladesh (55,000 MT), Indonesia (14,800 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Canada (10,300 MT), and Colombia (8,300 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for China (51,200 MT) and unknown destinations (37,200 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 315,300
MT were primarily for Pakistan (130,000 MT), unknown destinations (130,000 MT), and Bangladesh (55,000 MT).  Exports of 226,400 MT–a marketing-year low–were down 45 percent from the previous week and 47 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations
were primarily to Mexico (74,000 MT), Japan (69,400 MT), China (25,500 MT), Indonesia (19,400 MT), and Taiwan (11,500 MT).

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2020/2021, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 5,800 MT, all Canada.

Soybean
Cake and Meal: 
Net sales of 124,300 MT for 2020/2021 were up 74 percent from the previous week, but down 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (32,500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Nicaragua (23,300 MT, including 8,300 MT switched
from Honduras), Ecuador (22,500 MT), Canada (20,400 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), and the Dominican Republic (13,500 MT, including decreases of 2,100 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for El Salvador (4,800 MT), Honduras (3,000 MT), Panama (2,000
MT), and Belgium (1,800 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 8,200 MT resulting in increases for Canada (8,300 MT), were offset by reductions for El Salvador (100 MT).  Exports of 202,000 MT were down 2 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior
4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to the Philippines (51,500 MT), Mexico (42,400 MT), Venezuela (36,500 MT, including 27,500 MT – late), Canada (25,700 MT), and Morocco (18,900 MT).

Late
Reporting:
For 2020/2021, exports totaling 27,500 MT of soybean cake and meal were reported late to Venezuela.

Soybean
Oil: 
Net sales of 5,700 MT for 2020/2021 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 28 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Jamaica (3,500 MT), the Dominican Republic (1,500 MT), Canada (400 MT), and Mexico (200 MT).  Exports
of 9,900 MT were up 20 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to the Dominican Republic (4,000 MT), Jamaica (3,500 MT), Canada (1,000 MT), Guatemala (700 MT), and Mexico (600 MT).

Cotton: 
Net sales of 103,100 RB for 2020/2021 were down 16 percent from the previous week and 44 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (38,600 RB), Vietnam (22,600 RB, including 2,200 RB switched from Hong Kong, 300 RB switched from
China, and decreases of 5,400 RB), Turkey (18,600 RB), Indonesia (9,500 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), and Pakistan (7,500 RB, including 3,700 RB switched from Turkey, 800 RB switched from India, and decreases of 200 RB), were offset by reductions for
Hong Kong (2,200 RB) and Thailand (1,800 RB).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 42,800 RB were primarily for China (15,400 RB), South Korea (13,200 RB), Vietnam (5,300 RB), Turkey (4,400 RB), and Peru (4,000 RB).  Exports of 329,000 RB were up 5 percent from the
previous week, but down 1 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily to Vietnam (85,800 RB), China (64,600 RB), Pakistan (43,200 RB), Turkey (36,300 RB), and Mexico (25,000 RB).   Net sales of Pima totaling 6,700 RB were up noticeably from
the previous week and up 22 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for India (3,800 RB, including decreases of 300 RB), Peru (2,300 RB), Bahrain (400 RB), and Japan (200 RB).  Exports of 19,600 RB were up 19 percent from the previous
week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to India (4,600 RB), Vietnam (3,700 RB), China (3,500 RB), Peru (3,400 RB), and Bangladesh (1,300 RB).

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2020/2021, exports for own account totaling 3,000 RB to China (1,500 RB), Vietnam (1,300 RB), and Bangladesh (200 RB) were applied to new or outstanding sales.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance of 26,200 RB is for China (21,300 RB),
Vietnam (4,500 RB), and Bangladesh (400 RB).

Hides
and Skins: 
Net sales of 358,300 pieces for 2021 were up 27 percent from the previous week, but down 10 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (198,300 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 6,700 pieces), South Korea (70,400 whole cattle
hides, including decreases of 1,600 pieces), Mexico (41,000 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 300 pieces), Thailand (20,700 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 700 pieces), and Japan (11,000 whole cattle hides), were offset by reductions for
Turkey (200 pieces), Vietnam (200 pieces), and Brazil (100 pieces).  Total net sales of 500 kip skins (including decreases of 500 kip skins) were for Belgium.
 Exports
of 378,100 pieces for 2021 were down 6 percent from the previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (243,600 pieces), South Korea (53,600 pieces), Mexico (34,200 pieces), Thailand (22,500 pieces),
and Taiwan (7,800 pieces).  Exports of 1,800 kip skins were to Belgium (1,300 kip skins) and China (500 kip skins).

Net
sales of 72,200 wet blues for 2021 were up 13 percent from the previous week, but down 50 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for Thailand (32,300 unsplit, including decreases of 300 unsplit), China (22,600 unsplit), Vietnam (10,400
unsplit), Mexico (6,000 unsplit, including decreases of 300 grain splits), and Brazil (1,300 unsplit), were offset by reductions primarily for Taiwan (100 unsplit).  Exports of 136,000 wet blues for 2021 were up 35 percent from the previous week and 12 percent
from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (44,800 unsplit), Vietnam (29,400 unsplit), Italy (17,700 unsplit and 6,400 grain split), Mexico (18,000 grain splits and 3,400 unsplit), and Thailand (6,900 unsplit).  Net sales of 345,800
splits were for Vietnam (252,200 pounds) and China (93,600 pounds).  Exports of 517,900 pounds were to Vietnam (440,000 pounds) and China (77,900 pounds).

Beef: 
Net
sales of 24,600 MT reported for 2021 were up 57 percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for South Korea (7,800 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Japan (6,200 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), China
(3,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (2,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Taiwan (1,900 MT, including decreases of 200 MT),
were
offset by reductions primarily for Italy (100 MT). 
Exports of 19,500 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to South Korea (6,100 MT), Japan (4,900 MT), China (3,600 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), and Taiwan (1,100 MT).

Pork: 
Net
sales reductions of 22,100 MT reported for 2021–a marketing-year low–were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for China (13,100 MT, including decreases of 1,700 MT), Japan (2,700 MT, including
decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (1,500 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Australia (1,500 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), and Canada (1,100 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), were offset by reductions for Mexico (45,100 MT – including 54,476 MT canceled). 
Exports of 43,900 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 14 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (13,800 MT), China (13,400 MT), Japan (3,900 MT), South Korea (2,900 MT), and the
Philippines (2,000 MT).

Data
Cancelation: 
Due to an error in exporter(s) reporting, exports of 54,476 MT of pork were not reported properly in marketing year 2020.  To correct marketing year 2021 figures a cancelation of 54,476 MT has been reported this week to remove the portion that should have
been reported in 2020.

April
22, 2021                                                   1                FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE/USDA

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 4/15/2021 

 

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	74.1	1,102.1	1,500.7	118.4	7,518.7	8,134.8	162.2	644.7
SRW	2.6	245.6	256.9	16.4	1,528.9	2,139.8	53.0	530.6
HRS	158.7	1,271.0	1,269.1	138.8	6,409.1	6,152.9	56.0	589.0
WHITE	12.7	1,332.7	840.0	286.9	5,296.9	4,249.8	102.6	585.0
DURUM	-8.0	69.7	179.0	0.4	594.9	741.2	0.0	5.0
TOTAL	240.2	4,021.0	4,045.8	561.0	21,348.6	21,418.6	373.8	2,354.2
BARLEY	0.1	4.5	10.8	0.5	24.7	38.8	0.0	20.2
CORN	387.5	27,805.3	13,740.0	1,605.7	39,393.0	21,582.4	29.5	2,131.6
SORGHUM	7.0	1,943.8	1,529.1	256.3	5,107.0	1,705.3	116.0	1,136.0
SOYBEANS	64.3	5,102.5	4,799.5	226.4	55,724.4	33,022.8	315.3	6,191.6
SOY MEAL	124.3	2,142.7	2,503.2	202.0	7,117.2	6,738.6	8.2	289.1
SOY OIL	5.7	101.9	301.5	9.9	557.2	665.1	0.0	0.6
RICE
L G RGH	79.7	319.9	291.8	58.1	1,183.3	1,093.8	0.0	0.0
M S RGH	0.0	5.3	23.5	0.0	23.5	53.0	0.0	0.0
L G BRN	0.3	3.0	17.3	0.5	35.2	42.5	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	0.3	68.5	57.6	0.4	86.1	51.8	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	12.3	52.7	60.8	24.9	483.7	710.4	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	4.3	247.2	224.9	9.2	402.1	461.9	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	96.9	696.5	675.9	93.0	2,214.0	2,413.5	0.0	0.0
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	103.1	4,586.8	5,427.0	329.0	10,485.4	9,692.1	42.8	1,657.5
PIMA	6.7	207.2	156.2	19.6	549.4	387.4	0.0	1.1