FI Morning Grain Comments 04/25/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

EXPORTERS
SELL 330,000 METRIC TONS OF SOYBEANS FOR DELIVERY TO CHINA -USDA.  OF THE 330,000, 66,000 METRIC TONS IS FOR DELIVERY DURING THE 2021/2022 AND 264,000 METRIC TONS IS FOR DELIVERY DURING THE 2022/2023 -USDA

 

EXPORTERS
SELL 204,000 METRIC TONS OF SOYBEANS FOR DELIVERY TO CHINA DURING THE 2022/2023 MARKETING YEAR -USDA

 

Combination
of a sharply lower WTI crude oil market, higher USD, and an Indonesia headline are sending US agriculture futures lower. US equities sold off during Friday’s afternoon session, so outside money flow might be at hand today. Wheat is higher on US weather. Indonesia
revised their ban on exports of cooking oil and will allow exports of crude palm oil, and that sent soybean oil futures, and other related vegetable oil prices sharply lower. Palm oil reached a six week high before that announcement. Offshore values are leading
SBO 97 points lower and meal $2.10 lower. Malaysian palm oil finished 16 points lower, and cash was $15 lower. China soybeans, SBO and palm finished higher and meal lower. Rotterdam meal was down 10-15 euros and vegetable oils 7-15 euros higher. News is light.
The US will see good rains this week across the Midwest, but the western Great Plains will see net drying. China ended their wheat auctions but will continue to sell soybeans from reserves with up to 500,000 tons offered later this week.

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR APRIL 25, 2022

• Interest
  in the U.S. will be focused on several issues today
• More
  wet weather is expected in the northern U.S. Plains and Canada’s Prairies late this week into the weekend and possibly again during mid-week next week
• Southwestern
  U.S. hard red winter wheat areas are advertised to be drier than usual through the next two weeks
  
• weekend
  showers in western Kansas and south-central Oklahoma were welcome, but not nearly enough to improve the majority of U.S. hard red winter wheat production potentials
• Today’s
  outlook is wetter for Nebraska, northeastern Colorado and northwestern Kansas late this week and into the weekend relative to Sunday’s forecast model runs
• Western
  U.S. Corn Belt crop areas will get enough rain in the next two weeks to improve planting moisture and remove any concern over dryness for the start of the planting season
• Eastern
  U.S. Midwest crop areas experienced improved field conditions during the weekend due to warmer temperatures and limited rainfall and this trend will last for a while longer this week
  
• a
  change back to wetter weather next week will bring a new period of planting delays which may encourage more aggressive planting this week
• U.S.
  Midwest and northern Plains temperatures are expected to be a little cooler biased during much of the two week forecast which will slow fieldwork and drying rates
• U.S.
  southeastern states will experience net drying for a while, despite some showers infrequently
  
• the
  environment will be great for planting and early crop development, but a greater need for rain should evolve in time
• California’s
  Sierra Nevada will not receive any further precipitation for a while
• Center
  west, center south and northeastern Brazil will continue to experience dry and warm weather over the next ten days resulting in more drying in Safrinha corn and cotton areas
  
• topsoil
  moisture was rated very short in Mato Grosso Friday while subsoil moisture was marginally adequate to slightly short
• soil
  conditions will very short in early May without timely and that could cost the crop some potential yield
• Wet
  weather in eastern Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil will be closely monitored; drier weather will be needed soon to improve late season crop maturation and harvest conditions
• Western
  Argentina will be drying out, but the need for moisture will be low until wheat planting begins in mid- to late-May and June. 
• Not
  much other influence on market trade is expected from other areas in the world today, although there are a few issues still being monitored

Source:
World Weather Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
April 25:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  crop progress and planting data for corn and cotton; spring wheat progress, 4pm
• Malaysia’s
  April 1-25 palm oil export data
• U.S.
  poultry slaughter, 3pm
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• HOLIDAY:
  Australia, New Zealand, Egypt

Tuesday,
April 26:

• Statistics
  Canada publishes report on seeded area for wheat, barley and canola
• MARS
  monthly report on EU crop conditions
• Geneva
  Sugar Conference, day 1
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• EARNINGS:
  ADM

Wednesday,
April 27:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Geneva
  Sugar Conference, day 2
• EARNINGS:
  Bunge, Pilgrim’s Pride

Thursday,
April 28:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Brazil’s
  Conab releases production numbers for sugar, cane and ethanol (tentative)

Friday,
April 29:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Vietnam’s
  General Statistics Office releases coffee, rice and rubber export data
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan, Indonesia

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

CFTC
Commitment of Traders

Funds
were less long than estimated for corn, soybeans and soybean oil. There were no major surprises for the week ending April 19. Keep an eye on Chicago wheat as funds are near flat. At the end of March, they were net long 43,100 contracts.

 

 

 

 

 

Due
out April 26

 

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn is lower on sharply lower WTI crude oil, higher USD and lower soybeans.  Unchanged to higher wheat may limit losses. 

·        
US corn planting progress improved over the weekend and may significantly increase early May. 

·        
USDA Cattle on Feed showed placements well above expectations. On feed as of April 1 was 1.3 points above expectations and fed cattle slightly below. The report is slightly supportive for feed demand and bearish for cattle futures,
in our opinion. 

 

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

Soybeans

·        
Combination of a sharply lower WTI crude oil market, higher USD, and Indonesia headline are sending the US soybean complex lower.

·        
Indonesia revised their ban on exports of cooking oil and will allow exports of crude palm oil. This is bearish global vegetable oil prices, or at least what appreciated on Friday.

·        
AmSpec reported Malaysian 1-25 April palm oil exports at 901,978 tons, down 10.6 percent. 

·        
Palm oil reached a six week high before that announcement. Malaysian palm oil finished 16 points lower, and cash was $15 lower.

·        
Offshore values are leading SBO 97 points lower and meal $2.10 lower.

·        
China soybeans, SBO and palm finished higher and meal lower.

·        
Rotterdam meal was down 10-15 euros and vegetable oils 7-15 euros higher. News is light.

 

Export
Developments

·        
China looks to auction off another 500,000 tons of soybeans April 29. This week they may have sold about 80 percent of the 500,000 tons offered. For some reason, the government has not been releasing official soybean auction data.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat is
mixed in Chicago and higher for KC and MN as US weather continues to hamper seeding progress for spring wheat. Net drying for the far western Great Plains is seen for this week and could set back an improvement in winter wheat ratings. We think the soft wheat
last week benefited from precipitations and look for a two point increase in the combined good/excellent conditions this afternoon. 

·        
China ended their weekly wheat reserve auctions.

·        
September EU wheat futures were 3.00 euros higher at 410 euros.

·        
Russia set the April 24-May 5 wheat export tax at $119.10 per ton, up from $110.70 per ton previous week.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on April 26 for Aug and/or Sep shipment.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat. on April 27 for Jun and/or Aug shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported